Wednesday, September 22, 2004
There is no polite way to phrase this: When it comes to politics, the average person is an idiot.
By Paul Campos
MSNBC has just conducted a poll in which it asked people if they thought opinion polls accurately reflected actual opinions. The network informs us that 88 percent of those polled answered "no."
This sounds like a surreal joke, but then stories about contemporary politics often do. There is no polite way to phrase this: When it comes to politics, the average person is an idiot. Depressing evidence for this claim can be found in a recent New Yorker essay by Louis Menand, which surveys the political-science literature regarding why people vote the way they do.
The conclusions from this literature include:
No more than 10 percent of the population can be said to have a coherent political belief system, using even a loose definition of that term. Most people's political beliefs, to the extent they have any at all, suffer from a lack of what political scientists call "constraint" -- i.e., little or no logical connection exists between the positions they hold. For example, a large proportion of voters see no contradiction between being in favor of both lower taxes and increased government services.
Perhaps a quarter of all voters vote on the basis of factors that have no "issue content" whatever. They vote for candidates who seem likable, or optimistic, or for those whose campaign posters are particularly eye-catching. According to Princeton political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels, millions of voters in the 2000 presidential election based their votes on what the weather had been like lately.
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http://www.dailybreeze.com/opinion/1039981.htmlPaul Campos, a law professor at the University of Colorado, wrote this column for Scripps Howard News Service. His e-mail address is Paul.Campos@Colorado.edu.