Decoding the National Polls(Ruy Teixeira)

[RedEarth]

Decoding the National Polls
By Ruy Teixeira, The Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation
Posted on September 23, 2004, Printed on September 23, 2004
http://www.alternet.org/story/19971/
From the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation:


In this edition of Public Opinion Watch:

(covering polls and related articles from the weeks of September 13-19, 2004)

Decoding the Gallup and New York Times Polls
Persuadable Voters Still Not Persuaded

Decoding the Gallup and New York Times Polls

Here are Bush's leads in the three national polls released before Gallup's current poll (no registered voter data available for Democracy Corps and Harris, only likely voter data; Pew and Harris matchups include Nader):

Democracy Corps, September 12-14 LVs: +1
Pew Research Center, September 11-14 RVs: tied
Harris Interactive: September 9-13 LVs: -1

Looks like a tie ball game, right? But according to the Gallup poll conducted September 13-15 and released September 17, Bush is up... by thirteen points??

Let's just say I'm just a wee bit skeptical of this one. First, Gallup's poll only includes one day (September 15) that the three other polls do not cover, so it can't be Gallup's survey dates that explain the big Bush lead.

Second, this thirteen-point lead is an LV figure and, as I've repeatedly emphasized, Gallup's LV screening procedure produces completely untrustworthy measures of voter sentiment this far in advance of the election. Here is a summary of the case against Gallup's LV data:


http://www.alternet.org/election04/19971/

[beyurslf]

1. I don't underdstand why they would ask if you know where your

polling location is to determine a likely voter. Nearly every polling site in my county changed this year because of HAVA. I have no idea where my polling location is and I never have. I have voted by Advance Ballot for years now.

Shouldn't they look at voter turnout in previous elections? I am a perfect voter (vote in every primary/general/city election) so it would reason that I will vote in Nov. It shouldn't matter how interested I am now. If I haven't missed a ballot in 10 years, why would I now? My answers to some simple questions about concern/level of interest/polling locations seems irrelevant.