WSJ: Medicare's Political Laboratory In Pennsylvania,

[question everything]

Medicare's Political Laboratory In Pennsylvania, Republicans Face Side Effects From Drug Benefit

By DAVID ROGERS
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 24, 2004; Page A4

HARRISBURG, Pa. -- When Republicans won sweeping Medicare changes last year, they vowed to oust Democrat Tim Holden, the congressman here who opposed their prescription-drug benefit. Ten months later, Mr. Holden enjoys a double-digit lead. Meanwhile in the district next door, Republican Rep. Jim Gerlach, who supported the Medicare bill, faces such a tough re-election challenge that drug-company allies fired off a barrage of independent ads on his behalf.

The turnabout reflects seniors' anger and confusion as the Bush administration phases in the ambitious Medicare overhaul, slated to become fully effective in 2006. Enrollment in a much-promoted drug-discount card is far below expectations, and in January, Medicare premiums will jump a record $11.60 a month, or 17.4%, in part because of new subsidies for Republican-backed private health plans.

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The debate plays out against a national contest in which Democrats must win 12 House seats -- a tall order -- to take back the chamber. However, in a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, 46% of those surveyed said they would prefer a Democratic-controlled House after the November election, while 42% said they would prefer Republican control. With its large population of seniors and as many as five competitive House races, Pennsylvania is a microcosm of the national struggle and a test of Ms. Pelosi's theory on Medicare's politics. As minority leader, she aggressively withheld Democratic support for the modernization bill, forcing Republicans into a protracted House vote that wasn't settled until dawn. Now, she campaigns in Philadelphia on behalf of three women newcomers, all emphasizing health care in pursuit of House seats.

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The debate over Medicare, which mostly affects women, the old and the sick, reveals how much a sense of insecurity runs through politics this year. November's elections may be less about any single issue -- terrorism, Iraq, lost jobs or Medicare -- than a cumulative insecurity among voters, who want change but are also cautious about what risks they will accept.

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Write to David Rogers at [e-mail]

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