Partisan Aces Share Forecast for Results of 2004 Campaign

[papau]

http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB109641136887130606,00.html?mod=todays%5Ffree%5Ffeature

Partisan Aces Share Forecast for Results Of 2004 Campaign
September 29, 2004; Page A4

WASHINGTON -- One is a wiry, intense Chicagoan, the other a languid, slow-talking Southerner. In manner and philosophy, Rahm Emanuel and Tom Cole personify the nation's blue-state/red-state political divide.

But scratch the surface of their divergent voting records as U.S. congressmen and you'll find shared bonds as battlefield strategists for the campaigns of others. What that produces is surprising agreement -- on how the 2004 election will be decided, who's likely to win, and what the outcome may mean for the American public.

Campaign aces often reach the same diagnosis after setting aside partisan spin. Both first-term lawmakers have worked at the highest political levels. Mr. Emanuel, 44 years old, who represents Illinois' fifth district, was a top aide to Bill Clinton. Mr. Cole, 55, who represents Oklahoma's fourth district, was staff chief of the Republican National Committee during Mr. Bush's 2000 victory.


The two men plopped on a sofa outside the House chamber last week to trade notes on a campaign with two distinct phases. The "incumbent referendum" phase didn't go well for Mr. Bush; the current candidate-contrast phase serves the president and his aides much better.

"Right now they're winning the 'choice,' " the Republican lawmaker says. But Mr. Cole agrees Democratic nominee John Kerry can regain momentum, since swing voters still "want to give Kerry a chance" to make the case for change.<snip>

[molly]

1. A bush win - what else would I expect

from the Wall Street Journal.