"Say What" Kerry takes lead in new Gallup poll 49-48

[59millionmorons]

I am no fan at all of Gallup polling. But this totally surprises me. I still don't trust Gallup polling.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-05-06-gallup-poll_x.htm

[Systematic Chaos]

1. Probably means Kerry's REALLY ahead something like 53 - 45

[Killarney]

3. Exactly!

If Gallup has a one point lead, Kerry really has a 5 pt lead(ish).

[blm]

2. Which means Kerry is likely ahead by 54% - 42%....

The polls showing Bush ahead or even are pure propaganda.

[nostamj]

4. Bill Scneider (sp?) the AIR loon on CNN,

said this morning:

Bush's re-election is in doubt based on his current approval ratings...

[Sparkly]

5. Here's the spin though

I keep hearing the "experts" say how great it is for the Chimp, because all the news lately has been bad yet he's tied with Kerry.

On the other hand, when it suits them, they'll say all the news is not bad, because the economy is "turning around" and we haven't had another attack in the US, etc...

And they like to say how horribly Kerry is doing, how he hasn't defined himself, how he has no "message," how the RNC has made him out to be a crazed Liberal who doesn't know who he is and flip-flops yadda yadda yadda...

But what they do NOT say is that it's good news for Kerry more than for the Chimp. Even after all the money spent "defining" Kerry, even before he's really started spending his own, even before he's set up campaign offices all over, even without having the bully pulpit or the publicity of debates or the convention, he's tied. It's bad for the incumbent's approval rating to be below 50%, yet Chimpy's 46% was lauded yesterday as "holding steady!"

The "good news for Chimp" line is making me crazy.

[Arugula Latte]

10. Not to mention

no running mate yet. That will give Kerry a boost, as well.

Oh, if only he could pick someone as exciting, charismatic and ethical as Dickie Cheney! :eyes:

[quinnox]

6. Bush's poll numbers are getting beat up by the scandal

I doubt he will be able to recover from this, it's just going to get worse and worse. I expect to see his approval drop to the 30's in a short time.

[Sparkly]

7. Three Strikes of "He Didn't Know"?

1. He didn't know about the 9/11 warnings.
2. He didn't know the Niger-uranium claims were false.
3. He didn't know about the torture -- uh, "abuse" -- in Iraq.

Okay, will people finally say "If he didn't, he should have?!" Or "Of course he knew, what a bunch of liars!" How much of this BS before it does sink him in the polls??

[Thrill]

8. I just can't believe

half of the Americans approve of the way this guy has been President. I think the number can't possibly be that high. Its just not realistic with the war and economy.

[Toronto Ron]

9. Hey, wouldn't that make a great Kerry ad:

"* didn't know X
* didn't know Y
* didn't know Z

What DOES * know? "

(where X,Y,Z are important things)

[Finch]

11. Gallup are a decent enough firm...

A Friend of mine who works for a polling company (and who’s a libertarian if you where wondering) and is really ace when it comes to polls and crunching numbers rated the leading polling firms as follows in a recent email…


The full list:

The Top Tier... Pretty darn good, most of the time...

Gallup (the real one, not the CNN/USAToday/Tracking version)
Battleground (Goaes/Lake/Perry) (mild GOP bias, maybe 1-2 points)
Tetter/Hart (Wall Street Journal/NBC News) (a marginal GOP bias)
Mason Dixon - Damn good firm...
Fox News (Yes, check their historic record...)
Democracy Corps (Yes, James Carville's firm knows what they are doing… marginal Dem bias)
TIPP/Infometrica (Investors Business Daily)
Snell/Perry/Lake
Yerxa/DDC
AP/Ipsos Reed
Harris
POA (Public Opinion Strategies) - Very Good firm - with the HUGE caution that they will also, if required, produce a poll that says anything you want that poll to say... They are "campaign pollsters" not media pollsters. Rarely "officially" release polls anyway so likely will not see to many from these guys anyhow.

The Second Tier - Interesting, not worthless, but don't bet the farm....

Rasmussen (Misses the top tier, but not by much...still on "probation" after their 2000 presidential call)
ABC News (Strange weighting, but knocking on the top tier door)
Survey USA
ARG
Research 2000
PEW - very consistent, but has a structural 4 point Democratic bias.
Quinnipiac - Only University poll (I am familiar with) that's NOT totally $%$ing useless...

Third Rate...

CBS/NYTimes..

ok..they got LUCKY in 2000, but from 1980 to 1996 they AVERAGED missing the actually result by 2 and a half times the margin of error of their poll! - If they do ok this year, I might believe them.... maybe...

Newsweek..

(Historically waaaaay off the mark)

Time

(see Newsweek)

All off on his Own..

Zogby gets his own Category. He is brilliant, and erratic.

You would be crazy to ignore him, you would be just as crazy to take him at face value,

For the record, in 2002, he polled 17 races, he got 12 right, 5 wrong...

Zogby is the "Drudge Report" of pollsters... he's often utterly wrong, but right just enough to keep you reading...

[WFF]

14. Interesting list

I read somewhere else that the Ipsos poll was the most neutral

[Mountainman]

12. "People in Iraq must understand"

That's the way Rush and Hanity and Beck talk. "You MUST understand that what I'm saying is the truth, even though we both know it's bull shit."

"You must understand"
"Here is the way you should look at this"

[Finch]

13. Kick