If Bush doesn't run

[LastRobot]

With all the scandals, lawyers being hired, investigations, etc., the question should be asked: What happens if Bush drops out of running for reelection? Who do the Republicans nominate in early September?

I'd say McCain/Guiliani and we see the religious right break away and nominate their own candidate.

Any other possible Republican tickets in this scenerio?

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

1. Something HUGE would have to happen

for Bush to drop out. It's far too late and there's way too much money that would be wasted. Not to mention, haven't a lot of ballot deadlines passed already?

[drumwolf]

2. what makes you think Bush might not run?

Just wondering. Any particular signs that make you suspect such?

[LastRobot]

11. the lawyer thing

That Bush let out he hired a lawyer shows more blood in the water. It makes him look guilty. And Tenet resigning makes it seem like there are problems, esp. after Tenet staying on this long after 9/11. And the poll numbers dropping. If his poll numbers drop below 40 percent, the Repubs may ask him to step aside.

Democrats are openly pointing out the obvious failures (finally) and Republicans are staying away (i.e. Schwartzenegger only campaigning in CA for Bush and with Bush so far behind, I'd be surprised if Ahnold does little more than pay lip service to Bush at a fund raiser or two).

As much as Repubs hate McCain, he probably would stand the best chance of winning with only a two month campaign. Who else do they have with that kind of name recognition? Guiliani, but would be better if he held another position before running for presidnet (Governor or VP). Ahnold constitutionally can't (yet).

[Kid_A]

3. The only way that Bush won't run

is if we find footage of him mugging an old lady and strangling a kitten, preferably at the same time. But you have to realize that these people operate out of nothing but sheer contempt for those of us that pay attention, because they know that the vast majority of the voting public is more concerned with who J.Lo is dating now, and when the new Clay Aiken album is coming out. Bush and Pals know that they can get away with pretty much anything because people really don't give a shit.

[Jack_Dawson]

6. LOL - So true, and so SAD

I don't suffer fools gladly.

[LastRobot]

12. I think its slowly building

Especially if Bush's numbers drop below 40 percent. Since polling began, has ANY President won reelection with their numbers below 40?

I doubt this will happen, Bush is too desperate to hold on to the Presidency, but there may be a point where the Republican leadership will sit down with him and point out that party survival trumps the Bush family legacy.

[Iceburg]

18. Perhaps the pollster and the media will work in our favour

by continuing to insist its a close race.

[seabeyond]

4. they lose

hands down, and the senate and house

[AntiCoup2K4]

9. Nice dream, but it won't happen anytime soon

..at least not without a media that tells the truth.

The first 10 minutes of CBS News last night was great, but unfortunately that was the exception, not the rule, in recent years :(

[The empressof all]

5. This won't be happening

However I do believe the McCain/Guilliani ticket would be a hard one to beat despite Gulliani's weaselly ways. (I can't stand him and am of the opinion his reputation is overly inflated) However since Bush & Co. never make mistakes there will be no way in hell they will not be on the ticket. If Cheney goes by the wayside I would not be surprised if he chooses Pataki as a running mate-leaving the Governorship of NY open for Gulliani

[LastRobot]

14. If Pataki assumes the Vice Presidency

The Lt. Governor of NY will become Governor and may stay and challenge Rudy in the primary as incumbent. If she (forget her name, don't feel like looking it up) doesn't do anything wrong in her 2 years, Guiliani may lose.

One way or another, this will only help Spitzer become Governor.

[The empressof all]

19. Guilliani aspires to be Governor

I think he views this as the next progression for him. I forget do they have term limits in NY (haven't lived there for 16 years). He's antsy to get that job. No matter who the Lt Gov is he'll go for it and he will win. I love Spitzer too by the way but it ain't gonna happen for him if it's a Spitzer/Guilliani race unfortunately.

[AntiCoup2K4]

7. Now that Tenet has become the convenient fall guy...

...I don't think there will be anymore defections from Team BCE.

[Skittles]

8. lol, nothing would make that f***er drop out

no way

[LionInWinter]

10. JEB

If the big chimp can't/won't run, they'll pick the little chimp to take over for him.

There's no way McCain would get the nod, the thugs hate him worse than Kerry. And Guiliani is a non-starter - he's pro-choice and from "liberal" NYC.

[LastRobot]

15. McCain could

But it would cause a split in the Republican party, as I said.

The leadership may still go for it because what they lose in religious voters, they may gain in independents and Democrats not excited by Kerry.

[lpbk2713]

13. McCain has denied any aspirations too often to have any credibility.

If it weren't for that they might be formidable. All the flag wavers would rally behind the "hero" aspect of both of them.

[The empressof all]

21. He says he doen't want to be Vice President

He'd take the #1 spot in a heart beat

[AlCzervik]

16. i think the public at large

has had it with the GOP, i don't think it matters who they run, Kerry will win.

[Ganja Ninja]

17. I don't think it's too far fetched to imagine Bush not getting the ...

GOP nomination. If he or others in his administration are facing indictment and his approval ratings are in the low 30's or below 30% I could see the GOP party leaders looking for a replacement. I don't know who would want to follow W and clean up his mess.
I think replacing him will probably mean the end of a unified right wing. As Martha sez; "That's a good thing."

[The empressof all]

20. Pure Speculation here

Again Bush is not going anywhere. But I think that they could hold their noses and get behind McCain for the win. Deal would be for four year term for McCain. That would leave a Pataki/Jeb Bush ticket in four years. With the convention planned for NY-I think they are grooming Pataki for a more visible role nationally.