Will there be a political realignment in 20 or 30 years from now?

[mot78]

If things will be as bad as they are (Social Security/Medicare going broke, Global Warming, Peak Oil, rise of China as a serious superpower, etc.) I doubt we'll still have the same two parties, or at least the same parties with the same constituents. We could see a realignment like 1932 or 1968. Or we could even see a new political party displace one of the two major parties (I'm predicting this only because I believe internet grassroots will be MANY times larger in 2025 or 2030...technologies that develop between now and then could also contribute).

[JustFiveMoreMinutes]

1. Depends on how the Culture Wars go....

The South survived Desegration and mixing of the races, but can the US survive allowing gay unions (marriage or full recognition)? The doomsayers are much the same... and other countries/nations are already giving rights/privileges.

Medical advancements will make abortion almost a moot issue and genetic research and engineering will continue to bother many, but in 10 or 15 year, the US will not be able to sway other nations NOT to continue their research. The Culture War will go outside the borders of the US.

It seems that the next great political shakeup will not be political after all, but more religious.

Will 'Gallileo recant' or will the 'Library of Alexandria' be burned down again? <okay, vague references at metaphors.. but hope you get my drift>

[greekspeak]

2. Politics is in a state of flux

I think the days of conglomerate politics in this country is or has gone the way of the do-do. Democrats, unfortunately, need to wake up to this reality. So many live in this dream world where blacks and gays and other minority groups automatically vote for them.

African-Americans and other racial minorities are fed up to here with being taken for granted and not getting what they need to be equal. Catholics and Jews certainly do not align behind the dems like once they did. And where this myth that gays automatically vote for democrats came from I do not know.

Many people vote how the black box with the pretty colors and the cable/satelite/antenna hooked up to it tell them to. Others do what the guys on the AM band tell them to do. Still others blindly vote for parties instead of candidates because Dad and Grampa did. I can produce anecdotes from my own personal experience, if you like.

The rules have changed. No political party has the luxury any more of a sure vote from a demographic.

[mot78]

3. Nor can Repugs rely on suburbanite professionals and white southerners

States like VA, NC, FL, AK, and TN are all treading blue. VA and NC especially will be more like CA and NJ, former Repug states that have become solid or near solid blue.

[greekspeak]

4. I like your point, Mot

Demographics are changing so quickly anymore! California once voted Republican quite frequently. New Jersey too. New England was once noted for its hard-headed puritanical no-nonsense no-frills mentality. Think Cal Coolidge. Not even New England is predictable anymore. MA votes almost solidly Dem, while NH and other areas tend to remain more conservative.