TNR-Reagan's Timing Couldn't Be Better--For Kerry

[LiviaOlivia]

&c.
Noam Scheiber's Daily Journal Of Politics

REAGAN'S TIMING COULDN'T BE BETTER--FOR KERRY: This is how Jodi Wilgoren sums up John Kerry's Reagan problem in today's Times:

-The canceled schedule comes in a week that already posed a challenge for Mr. Kerry, who would have had to compete first with President Bush's trip to Europe in honor of the 60th anniversary of the Normandy invasion, and then his convening of the G-8 summit meeting in Sea Island, Ga. Campaign aides had previously said that Mr. Kerry would talk about the economic squeeze on the middle class, trying not to interfere with the president's focus on foreign policy.

Now, he will have to struggle not to disappear from public view altogether.-


But is the timing of Reagan's death really such a bummer for Kerry? Obviously it's a problem if Kerry can't recoup the money he passed up when he had to cancel two multimillion dollar fundraisers this week. But, given the fundraising success he's had so far, I can't imagine that will be the case. And, as far as the public campaign goes, I'd say Reagan's death represents a bit of a break for Kerry. This, after all, was the week Bush was supposed to recast himself as a president who plays well with others. Since the press was clearly gearing up to provide wall to wall coverage of his foreign travels and meetings, it's hard to see how Kerry wouldn't have "disappeared from public view altogether" anyway. Now Reagan's death pushes Bush to the margins of public view, too--essentially freezing the race where it was beforehand. If I'm Kerry, that sounds like a pretty good deal to me.

(True, Bush may get a soft bounce from the nostalgia and good-feeling aroused by the Reagan coverage. But he was going to get that whether Reagan died this weekend, a year ago, or four months from now. As long as that was going to happen, much better to have the death drown out what the Bush campaign had billed as a pivotal moment in the marketing of its candidate.)

posted 2:43 p.m.
http://tnr.com/etc.mhtml

[NewYorkerfromMass]

1. It has also given Kerry a full week to conserve his resources (money)

so I say: "Thank You, Ron"

[leyton]

5. And his energy.

I'm sure he could use another week off, or a week of low-key events.

I wonder if he couldn't make the fundraisers private - perhaps, instead of attending them, just make a personal phone call to each donor, or meet with them briefly in small groups in a more low-key manner?

[On the Road]

2. Kerry's Not Going to Waste Resources Trying to Compete with Ronnie

the good news politically is that by November Reagan's death will be water under the bridge -- no more of a factor than Saddam's capture is now.

Kerry's wise in lying low this week. It's a long way to election day.

[TheCentepedeShoes]

4. Ronnie gone,

the Normandy anniversary, and G8 all in the same week. Looks like Kerry hit a "trifecta."

[Qutzupalotl]

6. It's "Mourning In America"

I haven't been watching the news much lately. Did somebody famous die? I can't find anything about it on TV.

</sarcasm>

[hippiegranny]

3. conservative media wishful thinkers

would love to think this has any bearing on kerry's chances. it doesn't.

[calimary]

8. And it's happening now, so we get all of it OVER WITH! And

especially, in plenty of time BEFORE the Democratic convention. My big dread was that it was gonna happen later in the year - closer to when bush could get a sympathy bounce near the election, OR, bigfooting the Kerry party at the Democratic convention. Kerry's gonna need all the exposure he can get, and by then, grass will have begun to cover his gravesite. This is a GOOD thing. Let's get it all taken care of, NOW, rather than later when it could hurt more.

[David__77]

7. I thought the timing was "good."

If it were later, that would be bad. If it were during the Iraqi crisis period, then it would have obscured it greatly. Now I had a feeling that we were at the beginning of a "good news" period with the puppets in Baghdad, and the economic indicators and so forth. Things have somewhat settled down for the time being in Iraq. I think that opposition forces are repositioning presently. In any case, Bush will be trying to reap a windfall on Reagan, but Kerry is conveniently left off the hook actually. And that's totally fine! He needn't have a high profile until later on. We don't want burnout.

[PatGund]

9. You know.....

When Reagan died, Nancy, Patti, and Ron Jr. were at his side. Nancy has no love for the Bush family, and both Patti and Ron Jr. have spoken out against them.

However, Michael, who's a wingnut RW radio hound, was "in route" when his father died.

Which makes me wonder if the timing may have been deliberate - or at the very least, knowing he was in failing health, if Nancy decided to use a DNR order for him, rather than letting him drag on until around the GOP convention or november election.

Sheer speculation on my part, obviously. But the timing *can't* help Shrub.