The Tinderbox Presidential Campaign of 2004

[Yavin4]

Anybody get the feeling that this campaign can swing on a dime? That one or two big news stories can change the direction of the campaign over night? In the past, campaigns were about momentum. A campaign would grab it, and then not let go until the election. This year, things seem a lot different. Neither campaign has any real momentum of its own. All polls are practically deadlocked, and everything seems to ride on the news of the day.

Reagan's death confirms this. Bush's campaign is looking for a bounce from the non-stop coverage this week. Why? Because it seems that any big news event could give either campaign a jump, if only for a week or two. IOW, unforseen events over the next six months may well decide this election.

[MontecitoDem]

1. Yeah, I'm with you

Seems like we can work our asses of registering voters, holding rallies, writing to voters in swing states and it can all be meaningless in one news cycle. I'm worried.

[Dagaz]

2. It'll swing one way or the other

Just quoting the experts that 2000 type outcomes are rare. I'm thinking that Iraq will either start looking good (smooth handover) or unravel (Kurds bail, malitias rule, etc). I can't see how the conventions make much difference and it's really up to how Bush's war turns out.

[kaitykaity]

3. I actually don't think anything is going to save Bush.

There are too many scandals out there waiting to bite him, and
too many active, energized liberals and other Democrats with
nothing else on their minds except defeating him.

This Reagan nonsense will soon pass, and then we have Moore's
movie and Clinton's book to get us through the summer
months.

[MontecitoDem]

4. Happy thoughts!

Thanks kaitykaity

[kaitykaity]

5. You're welcome.

I had no idea I was that optimistic until I came back
and reread that post.

Oh my.

[MontecitoDem]

7. ooh - don't take it back

it's so rare that I sign off DU with visions of victory in my head!

g'nite
:)

[troublemaker]

6. Political Momentum is a crushing force

Nothing could have saved Carter or Bush I. Once you become a figure of morbid fun it's done.

The polls are shocking for Bush... not even close. This isn't a close race unless somebody thinks there will be a 7% undecided vote on election day.

There's very little news that is unambiguously positive or negative... almost anything can be spun either way. Once a political figure becomes *disliked* (which Bush is) he doesn't get the spin.

Nobody knows what result a terrorist incident would have only because they are reluctant to guess how the media would cover such an event. After 9/11 they stuck to who, what, when and how. They never asked WHY? The next event they'll be asking WHY right out of the box.

The current theory that unspeakable horrors benefit incumbents has a poor track record. Bush got a pass on 9/11 only because it was a big surprise. "Hey, I didn't see it coming so how could the President?" (Americans are not always thoughtful)

But any big event this year will be almsot anti-climatic after three years of frivolous alerts. It's now lose-lose for Bush.

[Lex]

8. Nonstop showing of Reagan works against Bush

because I think it makes Republicans yearn for a guy in the White House who can speak in complete sentences.

[AndyTiedye]

9. Did You Ever Think We'd Have a Resident Who...

...could make Ronald Reagan sound like a mental giant by comparison?