When do you think we'll make "Contact"

[HEyHEY]

Soon? What do you think it will be like. You have to admit - it would be a MAJOR change in the world - we may even start wearing their clothes.

[jeff30997]

1. We will pay for the clothes with Galactos!

Check this:

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=story_9-6-2004_pg9_11

[Selwynn]

2. It's not that I don't believe there may be other life out there...

...its just that I'm skeptical about the chances of crossing paths which such life in such an incomprehensibly vast universe. From what I understand of science, it seems like the conditions in which life can most likely emerge (from our given understanding) are not very likely to begin with, which seems to me to make the vast space x unlikliness of life emerging equation mean we might never see anyone else..

[FDRrocks]

4. In an incomprehensibly vast universe

I'm sure there are millions of other planets that are equally suited to sustain carbon life, just as our sphere is.

[jpgray]

17. But the infinite cuts both ways

Since these numbers are so large even when limited in our own galaxy, if there exists some intelligence species with the same desire and capacity to explore as we, then in theory at least one such species should have already colonized Earth, or at least some substantial evidence in terms of radio signals etc. would be extant. The absence of both would indicate that we are alone, but at the same time the odds overwhelmingly suggest we cannot be unique--this is the paradox.

Of course, we have only been broadcasting for a scant hundred years or so--a mere blink in the history of our galaxy. So perhaps a good (if bleak) way to explain this paradox is that such sentient species with a desire to explore and expand do not last long enough to make a sizable impact on the galaxy, and in particular do not last very long once they acquire the ability to send out signals into space. Likely, we will not be around long enough with the capacity to detect such signals to ever do so.

Have a drink. :hi:

[FDRrocks]

20. When I think of the universe...

I think of it being infinite, basically. I agree with many posts on this threat that statistically the chance of there being other intelligent life is good, but the chances of our meeting with one another are very bad.

I do not think that extraterrestrial life would, neccesarily, be more intelligent than us.

There is speculation as of now that Mars once had water, which would mean it could support hydrogen and oxygen atoms, which really was the requisite for life as we now know it. It is speculation, though.

[Borknagar]

47. Nah

Nah, there is not intelligent life on earth let alone other planets.

[psychopomp]

56. The size of the universe

is about 156 billion light-years across, or so we are inclined. The latest calculations seem to bear this out:


http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/mystery_monday_040524.html

"Space aliens" capable of contacting us may not be corporeal, at all, which would make them no different from "ghosts" or other mythical phenomenae from legend and lore. So, basically, I do not expect it to make any difference whether something is out there to make contact with because we surely wouldn't recognize it for what it is, anyway.

Nothing that manages to slip the bonds of spacetime and make it to Earth is going to conform to our experience. At least, on a physical level.

[kiahzero]

23. Nah

The odds of life existing are finite, and the trials (planets) are so arbitrarily large as to be infinite, it seems far more likely than not that life exists.

That life may not have the same desire to explore, or perhaps not the same capaicity. Or maybe they're just sufficiently far away that we haven't noticed yet.

[jpgray]

24. Our galaxy has been around for ten billion years

Most stars in this galaxy are at least a billion years older than our sun. If these alien civilizations existed, with a desire to colonize/explore such as we have, it's hard to see a scenario where the Earth would have remained wholly unmolested, and even harder to imagine these intelligent aliens leaving no detectable trace of themselves. Even if only one such civilization were to develop only a few million years before us in the vastness of this galaxy, the evidence of their existence should be all over the place.

Unless of course, they do not have the will to explore, etc. comparable to humans, do not leave any evidence of their existence detectable by us, or do not last long enough in a technologically advanced state for us to have a chance of detecting them before they became extinct.

[muriel_volestrangler]

30. Not necessarily

From Douglas Adams' "The Restaurant at the End of the Universe":

"The Universe--some information to help you live in it.

1--AREA: infinite.

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy offers this definition of the word 'Infinite'.

Infinite: Bigger than the biggest thing ever and then some. Much bigger than that in fact, really amazingly immense, a totally stunning size, real 'wow, that's big.' time. Infinity is just so big that, by comparison, bigness itself looks really titchy. Gigantic multiplied by colossal multiplied by staggeringly huge is the sort of concept we're trying to get across here.

2--IMPORTS: None.

It is impossible to import things into an infinite area, there being no outside to import things in from.

3--Exports: None.

See Imports.

4--POPULATION: None.

It is know that there are an infinite number of worlds, simply because there is an infinite amount of space for them to be in. However, not every one of them is inhabited. Therefore, there must be a finite number of inhabited worlds. Any finite number divided by infinity is as near to nothing as makes no odds, so the average population of all the planets in the Universe can be said to be zero. From this it follows that the population of the whole Universe is also zero, and that any people you may meet from time to time are merely the product of a deranged imagination.

5--MONETARY UNITS: None.

In fact there are three freely convertible currencies in the Galaxy, but none of them count. The Altarian Dollar has recently collapsed, the Flainian Pobble Bead is only exchangeable for other Flainian Pobble Beads, and the Triganic Pu has its own very special problems. Its exchange rate of eight Ningis to one Pu is simple enough, but since a Ningi is a triangular rubber coin six thousand eight hundred miles along each side, no one has ever collected enough to own one Pu. Ningis are not negotiable currency, because the Galactibanks refuse to deal in fiddling small change. From this basic premise it is very simple to prove that the Galactibanks are also the product of a deranged imagination.

6--ART: None.

The function of art is to hold the mirror up to nature, and there simply isn't a mirror big enough--see point one.

7--SEX: None.

Well, in fact there is an awful lot of this, largely because of the total lack of money, trade, banks, art, or anything else that might keep the non-existent people of the universe occupied."

[kiahzero]

42. Except not

Dividing the finite number of worlds with life on them by the infinite number of total worlds does not give the odds of a world having life, it gives the percent of worlds that have life.

Also, simply removing 1 from infinity does not make it less infinite.

Inf - 1 = Inf
For all real x > 1, Inf - x = Inf.

[leyton]

45. That logic's a bit flawed...

You can't assume that there are infinite worlds and yet only a finite number with life... There are either an infinite number of both, or a finite number of both.

[muriel_volestrangler]

46. What? You think that a piece claiming to prove

the non-existence of people, trade, money, art and banks might have a logical flaw in it somewhere? Never! ;-)

[leyton]

54. Heheh... sorry.

That is a funny piece, I guess a neuron misfired somewhere on my side.

[w13rd0]

7. Life that we would recognize...

...the conditions for "life" to occur may actually be the prevailing norm. But what possible benefit would it be for another sentience to have anything to do with us? If they aren't carbon based, we wouldn't be needed for food. And I doubt our command of science and conversational skills would be that attractive of a draw.

[Pithlet]

21. Aw, you just like to spoil the fun.

j/k :) Actually, I agree with you.

[troublemaker]

43. Those estimates will change (life is common)

I doubt we will make contact because the speed of light is such a strict speed limit, *but* our existing notions of the likelihood of life developing in any given spot are certain to change.

Life probably isn't any more special a phenomenon than weather. There are physical and chemical requirements, yes... but as long as you've got liquid water and a normal range of compounds I believe life is almost inevitable. (It's been interesting to see that the Mars rover handlers treat water and life as almost interchangeable.) Once we had a sound theory of life arising from clay all bets were off. Not that life here arose from clay, but that it plausibly could have... that's a far cry from the old 1950s random formation of amino acids involving fortuitous lightening strikes that was the prevailing model when people started figuring the odds of life.

And once you have life of any sort it's a short hop to intelligent life. We have always assumed intelligent life would occur on only a tiny percentage of planets with life but there's not much evidence of that aside from our inborn need to feel special.

We look at all the millions (or certainly hundreds of thousands) of species that have existed and we are the only one that builds cities and such. So that seems rare. But our only real world model suggests intelligent life may be inevitable as life itself.

Number of planets we know harbor life = 1
Number of planets we know harbor intelligent life = 1

The multitudes of our less intelligent ancestors don't suggest intelligence is rare in the universe, just that most species aren't. Species exist and interact in an ecology and few species are even 'trying' to be intelligent. And in terms of the odds, we are just one species out of many, but so is every other species. Giraffes and Anthrax are just a special as we are... one species out of many.

Earth shows (and math supports) an evolutionary trend toward expanding the range of life forms, including expanding the range in terms of size and complexity. Since that trend is a function of evolution itself, why would intelligent life be such a long shot? (I emphasize the *range* because the average life form today is still a one celled organism, same as it was a billion years ago)

We really aren't such a miracle. If man had never existed it would probably have merely delayed intelligent life on Earth for a few million or tens of millions of years. Chimpanzees aren't much less miraculous than we are.

But even though I suspect there are many thousands of intelligent species in our cosmic neighborhood they'd be almost impossible to meet or even hear from. C'est la vie.

[FlaGranny]

50. On the contrary, the latest

scientific opinion holds that life is almost irrepressible. We are finding life in places where we felt it was impossible - boiling water temperatures, toxic soups, deep freeze. All the building blocks of life are contained in stars - the universe is made of the stars and the substances of stars. They believe that if water is present, then life is likely to be present. Of course, that doesn't mean intelligent life, but the chances of intelligent life in just our own little part of the universe are pretty good. We'll probably never see aliens in our time, unless they've discovered some way to travel through space and/or time to arrive here.

Every atom in every one of our bodies was once in the core of a star.

[Selwynn]

55. So why have we discovered no habitable planets anywhere?

if life is so abundant, how come everywhere we look we see no signs of life?

[psychopomp]

57. Probes have yet to get to the surface of Titan

and Europa. The jury is still out on Mars.

[Canuckistanian]

58. Because we can't see very far

Back in the early 1400's it was generally assumed that the world consisted of Europe, Asia and Africa. We had limited vision and assumed nothing stood between Europe and Asia.
Same thing today. There may be tons of life "out there" but we have neither the instruments nor the means of conveyance to discover them.

Yet.

[Selwynn]

59. Fair enough :D

[qwertyMike]

3. Statistically...

there is other intelligent life out there

and

Statistically....the chances of us ecountering eachother are almost zero.

Sad

[jjmalonejr]

5. Never

It's a big universe, forever is a long time, we've only been here for a blip in history, and we probably won't last long.

But that's just me.

[Salviati]

6. The Drake Equation (for those who don't already know of it...)

While working as a radio astronomer at the National Radio Astronomy Observatory in Green Bank, West Virginia, Dr. Frank Drake (now Chairman of the Board of the SETI Institute) conceived an approach to bound the terms involved in estimating the number of technological civilizations that may exist in our galaxy.
http://www.seti.org/seti/seti_science/Welcome.html


The Drake Equation doesn't supply any answers per se, but it does let us know what questions we should be asking. E.g. from recent advances it sure seems like Fp, The fraction of stars with planetary systems, seems to be pretty high.

[Cleita]

8. Oh, you are talking about aliens from other planets.

I thought you meant something more mundane at first. I think it could be rather scary for us if we do meet up with a civilization of aliens who are more technologically advanced than us. It could also be really scary for them too to meet up with their first freeper. I wonder how the freepers will react. How would these "people" fit into their universe? Could they be a handy labor force of farm laborers and household servants, or could it be that we would be the wage slaves?

[TreasonousBastard]

9. If they're not already secretly here...

not in my lifetime.

But, I would love to be around if it should ever happen. (Even if they bring a cookbook.)

[Cleita]

10. That would be the one titled,

"To Serve Man" :evilgrin:

[TreasonousBastard]

14. You remembered!

And I figure I'm too old and tough for the pot anyway.

[indigobusiness]

29. Maybe "old and tough" is their preference...

you might be grade AA.

http://sludgereport.blogspot.com/

[Astarho]

11. Depends when they show up

Could be next year or it could be a thousand years.

But Like Calvin (of Calvin & Hobbes) said "I think the surest sign intelligent life is out there is the fact that they haven't tried to contact us."

[maggrwaggr]

12. well I'd say it's about as likely as the rapture

And the people who are looking for it remind me very much of the fundies who just can't WAIT for the rapture to come.

Do you really think that "aliens" are going to be so low-tech that they will travel through the vast distances of our three-dimensional space like we do???

Good grief. There are many other dimensions to use, they are all around us and inside of us, and those who can use them can come and go as they please. If you can call it "coming and going", which you can't.

My point being, they're not "here" nor "there" but we'll be the last to know

[DustMolecule]

13. Well, Rove needs to come up with something really BIG right now....

...so I vote for 'soon'.

"I only have :eyes: for KKKarl....

[jpgray]

15. Never--Fermi got it right, I think (nt)

[DustMolecule]

16. Whaddya mean???

n/t

[jpgray]

18. See my #17 in this thread--I sort of paraphrase Fermi's paradox (nt)

[DustMolecule]

19. Actually that makes some sense.....

...Fermi suggests that 'essentially, species on another plant probably evolved along somewhat the same lines as 'us'.

Of course, we have only been broadcasting for a scant hundred years or so--a mere blink in the history of our galaxy. So perhaps a good (if bleak) way to explain this paradox is that such sentient species with a desire to explore and expand do not last long enough to make a sizable impact on the galaxy, and in particular do not last long enough once they acquire the ability to send out signals into space

So, alien sentient beings can experience budget cuts and end up working at Wal-Mart too??? :shrug:

on edit: (btw, I'm not 'making fun', I'm just frustrated with it all)

[shraby]

22. The aliens are already here.

Did anyone ever try to keep weeds out of the garden? I've figured it out...the weeds are the aliens! :bounce:

[Dark]

25. Not for a long time.

After all, what do we have to offer them?

Dubya? Yeah, right. We couldn't pay them to take him.

[Serenity-NOW]

26. How about the Johnny Appleseed theory?

You know since this is a young galaxy it goes to reason that life evolved elsewhere earlier, so let's say that life figured out how to travel and set off on a looooooong trip seeding planets with life all along the way.

So they'll be back one day and they'll be hungry.

[nevergivein]

27. I just watched something that talked about this

Speaking of this--have any of you seen USA THE MOVIE? It's new and kind of hard to find but really incredible. Anyway. Right toward the beginning they play a clip of a guy speaking on the radio--it's from an actual broadcast but I don't know what--he says that Werner Von Braun (you know, former Nazi and former head of NASA) predicted way back that first the powers that be in this country will go after Russia, then when Russia is vanquished we'll go after the Arab world in the name of terrorism. Then they'll go after China, then it will be announced that there are extra-terrestrials that we have to fight. All this to keep a huge and mighty war machine running so billions of dollars can continue to flow. I wouldn't be surprised. And therefore you're right that Rove might just come up with something big. It's been planned all along.

I implore all aliens to save yourselves a big headache and stay far, far away from here.

You can check out manticeye.com to find out more about the movie (DVD) I mentioned. I first heard about it on Smirking Chimp. Very, very unique and eerie with stuff from 9/11 and this guy who goes nuts because of the country sliding into war--it's too hard to explain so if you're interested go to the site.

I always loved Spock.

[indigobusiness]

28. We measure the vastness the way we did a coast to coast road trip

a hundred years ago.

Back then, it was inconceivable to drive from Atlantic to Pacific in a couple of days.

For all our fancy technology and accomplishments, we are at a rudimentary stage of technology and understanding. Perhaps we aren't even at the Model T stage of interstellar travel.

When will we make Contact? Maybe we already have.

---

http://sludgereport.blogspot.com/

[FlaGranny]

52. When I was a kid, my dad

had this old astronomy book from the early part of the 20th century - I beliece it was from the 1910's or 20's. I vaguely remember a part that said "if a train were traveling 40 miles per hour, it would take 35(?) weeks to reach the moon." Or something like that. How far we have come in 100 years.

[indigobusiness]

53. True, but we are just getting started...

and our perspective is limited by our perception.

[Vogon_Glory]

31. I'm Growing Increasingly Doubtful...

I'm growing increasingly doubtful that we'll ever have formal contact with extraterrestrials.

I'm entertaining two notions concerning extraterrestrials. On the one hand, I think that it's likely that humans are the only advanced tool-using sophonts in this arm of the Galaxy--either because of evolution or perhaps the competition blew each other to bits millenia ago.

On the other hand, I suspect that it's quite likely that ET's are quite aware of humanity and thoroughly disapprove of us. Even without stealthed orbital satellites to do zoom-in streaming on human iniquities, humanity has broadcast enough of our activities on FM, short wave, and television so that advanced civilizations are revulsed by our behavior.

It's not just what we do to each other. While I'm not a vegetarian, I suspect that somebody might be getting an eye-stalk full of what humans are doing to whales, the great apes, elephants, and other more intelligent species.

:evilfrown:

[bacchant]

32. They're not here, they're not coming

From the Arizona desert
To the Salisbury Plain
Lights on the horizon
Patterns on the grain
Anxious eyes turned upward
Clutching souvenirs
Carrying our highest hopes and our darkest fears

They swear there was an accident back in '47
Little man with a great big head
Splattered down from heaven
Government conspiracy; cover-ups and lies
Hidden in the desert under endless skies

Well, it's a cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold
Post, postmodern world
No time for heroes, no place for good guys
No room for Rocky The Flying Squirrel

They're not here, they're not coming
Not in a million years
Turn your weary eyes back homeward
Stop your trembling, dry your tears
You may see the heavens flashing
You may hear the cosmos humming
But I promise you, my brother
They're not here, they're not coming

Would they pile into the saucer
Find Orlando's rat and hug it?
Go screaming through the universe
Just to get McNuggets?
Well, I don't think so, I don't think so
It's much too dangerous, it's much too strange
Here in a world that won't give Oprah no home on the range

Well, it's a cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold
Post, postmodern world
No authenticity, no sign of soul
The radio won't play George and Merle

They're not here, they're not coming
Not in a million years
'Til we put away our hatred
'Til we lay aside our fears
You may see the heavens flashing
You may hear the cosmos humming
But I promise you, my sister
They're not here, they're not coming

To this garden we were given
And always took for granted
It's like my daddy told me, “You just bloom where you're planted.”
Now you long to be delivered
From this world of pain and strife
That's a sorry substitution for a spiritual life

(Solo)
Well, it's a cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold, cold
Post, postmodern world
No place for sentiment, no room for romance
Bring back the Duke of Earl

They're not here, they're not coming
Not in a million years
Turn your hopes back homeward
Hold your children, dry their tears
You may see the heavens flashing
You may hear the cosmos humming
But I promise you, my brother
They're not here, they're not coming

They're not here, they're not coming
Not in a million years
'Til we put away our hatred
And lay aside our fears
You may see the heavens flashing
You may hear the cosmos humming
But I promise you, my brother
They're not here, they're not coming

- Don Henley

[GiovanniC]

39. An Alien Ship Will Approach

Commander Zork will pilot the vessel into our solar system. Communications Officer Flax will begin picking up strong signals coming from the third planet. He'll put in on the holographic projector and state-of-the-art alien Surround Sound system.

"Jerry! Jerry! Jerry!"

And Commander Zork will say, "Holy f--k! Let's get outta here!"

[chelsea0011]

33. Won't. We are all alone here.

[Jose Diablo]

34. I don't think there will be contact

with other 'viewers' in this 'verse. A 'viewer' is an observer interacting with the information system recorded on the foundation of our reality, the quantum foam.

Cosmically speaking, what we see and experience is one of a infinite number of finite 'verses in a infinite universe.

Each 'verse can only have one 'viewer' living in that 'verse. We are that one viewer in this 'verse. We ourselves are not really separate individuals with discrete minds, we only think we are. We only think we are separate because each of us have a different viewing point within this 'verse.

Mind and the 'verse are interconnected and not separate things.

Of course, this is only my opinion. Not scientific at all. It would make a interesting science fiction story though.

[LibLabUK]

41. Isn't this similar to solipsism? n/t

[Jose Diablo]

44. I don't know, whats solipsism, let me look it up n/t

[Jose Diablo]

49. No solipsism isn't what I mean

from the site which defines solipsism as my mind "is the only mind that exists":

http://www.iep.utm.edu/s/solipsis.htm

This is not what I mean.

What I mean is that all perspectives in this 'verse are really the same Mind. Individuals are only a single perspective or point of viewing. This doesn't mean that only humans have a perspective point of view. Every animal, plant maybe even inorganic objects that are capable of giving Mind a viewpoint, share in the Mind.

As for 'contacts with others', they are really us, with a different point viewing the same 'verse.

If there is contact, then that contact would be with ourselves. There are no outsiders, except perhaps God.

Or maybe God is the totality of all views in all 'verses.

[BiggJawn]

35. Never. "They" are avoiding us like the Plague.

"Beam me up, Scotty, there's NO intelligent Life down here..."

They'll wait for us to utterly destroy ourselves then come down to study the Cockroaches...

[neebob]

36. I don't know

but if there are any aliens out there with the capacity to come here and destroy us, I'm sure Bushco will manage to attract their attention and bring them down on us.

[misanthrope]

37. As soon as...

...we learn to solve our own problems.

[Skidmore]

38. Jeepers, I thought we already had!!

How else do you explain those alien life forms which have taken over our government?

[AngryAmish]

40. We must crush them

That is what Americans do.

[JimT]

48. If it happens

it will be someone new for us to blow up. Yeeeee-Haw!!!

[NewJeffCT]

51. Probably, but not in our lifetimes

If we don't blow up the planet, I'm guessing it will be in a few hundred years when our communications get sophisticated enough to allow us to contact others across great distances, or when our space travel technology gets advanced enough to travel long distances at significantly faster speeds than the speed of light. (if we can't go faster, it would take years just to get to the nearest star, let alone farther ones...)

[Pobeka]

60. We have to learn how to listen first.

We think that radio is the defacto means of communication, but keep this in mind:

---
Marconi invented radio only a scant 100 years ago, and the fundamental theory of how the electromagnetic spectrum worked was still in dispute (particles, waves??)

The microwave spectrum was not even a possibility then, probably unknown as to it's potential. We've been using the microwave spectrum in a serious way for only 20 years or so.
---

String theory may yield means of communication that we can not yet conceive of, perhaps allowing communication to travel faster than the speed of light. For all we know, we are being contacted right now, we just don't have the technological ears to hear the message.

[Tigermoose]

61. Consider that advanced forms of energy might not be possible.

Consider that oil and other fossil fuels might just be the best energy source that a planet can produce for travel. We all like to think that cold fusion or some super duper warp drive will make light speed travel possible, but consider that this might just not be possible. If that is so, then the best we can ever do is get to the moon or maybe Mars. And then when the fossil fuels run out, stories of travelling to the moon will be an ancient myth of what it was like to live in the golden age.

We like to think we will find new ways of breaking the old rules, but perhaps there are just some natural laws that cannot be broken to accomadate our science fiction dreams -- just a possibiliity to consider.