L.A. Times Ohio poll has Bush leading 45-42

[lancdem]

Their article said it was a tie, but I think it's significiant to have a 3-point margin for Kerry in a state Gore lost by more than 4 points.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

Drag your cursor over Ohio to see the numbers.

[dsc]

1. It is a tie

a nice tie but a tie nonetheless. Ohio will be tough, doable but tough.

[lancdem]

4. It is within the maegin of error

but I'd much rather have Kerry up by 3 than down by 3.

[nodictators]

6. It's NOT a tie. With this poll, at this time, Kerry is more likely to win

In the media they call it a tie if the difference between the two major candidates is less than the margin of error. That's not really true.

Here, Kerry has a three point lead with a 4 point margin of error. Thus, we can't say with a confidence level higher than the poll's requirement, typically 95%, that Kerry WILL win. Nevertheless, with this poll, at this time, Kerry IS more likely to win Ohio than Bush.

Hey, it's almost always better to be ahead.

[cjbuchanan]

2. We still have a long way to go

Three points is not much. So let's not worry, let's just keep working.

[kentuck]

3. Does Nader have the remaining 13% ?

Or are they undecided?

[lancdem]

5. He has 4 percent

so 9 percent are undecided.

[lucky777]

7. OHIO sucks

This news doesn't surprise me.

I was forced to move here a year ago b/c I am a professor and this was the only tenure-track job offer that I received: I was sick of being a visiting professor. Previously I was in FL, IL, and OR.

OHIO is the most disgusting, average, boring, ugliest place on earth. You can't imagine how dumb the people are. No new ideas come from here -- no fashion, no music, no interesting little neighborhoods, the weather sucks, there is very little diversity, it is a total zero.

Everyone I know here will vote for Bush. That's just the way people are here -- dumb as shit.

Sorry if I offend the handful of decent progressive people in the state!

[Philostopher]

8. Just curious -- I've seen a couple of posts from you.

Where are you in Ohio? Because Cincinnati is easily the most conservative city in the entire Midwest, and maybe even the whole U.S. on some subjects, but it doesn't necessarily reflect the composition of the entire state. There's not enough money in the world to get me back in Cincinnati, though there are several DUers who live there.

I don't think the rest of the state is as bad as Cincinnati in those respects, and frankly, the progressives who manage to survive in Cincinnati are usually tough and very active politically. I'd suggest you post something in the State Forum for Ohio and see if you can hook up with a campaign or DUer who shares your political and cultural opinions and/or tastes -- often, you'll find there are cultural and political organizations and outlets you don't know about because you're a stranger.

Because I will give you this much -- Ohioans can be xenophobic, and a distrust of strangers isn't limited to Cincinnati.