MISSOURI , THE BELLWETHER

[jay-3d]

THE BELLWETHER
Jun 3rd 2004

As Missouri votes, so votes the rest of America

MISSOURI has an almost mythical reputation in American presidential
politics. The candidate who carries it has won the presidency in every
election, bar one, since 1900. (The exception was 1956, when Missourans
supported Adlai Stevenson over Dwight Eisenhower.) Although it has only
11 electoral college votes, the Show Me State is routinely showered
with attention from presidential candidates and deluged with political
ads.

But even by Missouran standards, 2004 looks likely to set records.
George Bush has already visited the state 17 times during his
presidency; John Kerry has been there seven times. With more than five
months to go until polling day, around 13,000 political ads have
already been shown on local television stations, according to
TMSMI/CMAG, a firm that tracks political advertising. Both campaigns
are likely to spend more money per voter in Missouri than in virtually
any other state.

The reason is that the state is one of the most evenly divided in the
country. In 2000 Missouri saw three very tight races, as well as
Florida-style recriminations after judges ordered polling booths in St
Louis to stay open longer. Mr Bush beat Al Gore by 50% to 47%, but by
the slimmest of margins the state opted for a Democratic governor, Bob
Holden, and a Democratic senator, Jean Carnahan (her husband, the
official candidate, had died in a plane crash a few weeks before
election day). In 2002, a Republican, Jim Talent, turned Mrs Carnahan
out of the Senate, but again by a tiny margin.

Sitting smack in the middle of the country, Missouri is a microcosm of
America. It reaches from mid-western farm plains to counties that are
firmly part of America's South, complete with evangelical churches and
country music. Dave Robertson, a political scientist at the University
of Missouri-St Louis, describes his state as a combination of the
mid-South and the upper mid-west. Its electoral returns, he claims,
look much like an amalgam of North Carolina and Michigan.

Missouri's political evolution has closely mirrored broader national
trends, particularly a sharp divide between rural and urban voters. The
state's two big cities, St Louis and Kansas City, are staunch,
pro-union Democratic strongholds with sizeable black minorities but
declining populations. In 2000, both voted overwhelmingly for Mr Gore.
Outside these two centres, however, Missouri is quintessential
conservative "Red America". In 2000, rural and small-town Missouri
voted 58% for Mr Bush.

At the margins lie the suburbs, and many swing voters. Broadly, the
inner suburbs are trending Democratic as more blue-collar voters move
out of the inner cities. The sprawling outer suburbs, in contrast,
trend Republican. In St Charles County, a fast-growing mass of new
houses, trimmed lawns and good schools, residents cast more votes than
St Louis city in 2000, and they were largely for Mr Bush.

The economic trends of the past four years are likely to reinforce
this political breakdown. Missouri has lost 40,000 manufacturing jobs
since 2000, mainly in the industrial urban centres. Overall, however,
the state has fared better than many battleground states. Its
unemployment rate, at 4.7%, is far lower than the national average. In
recent months, its job growth has been amongst the fastest in the
nation.

Nonetheless, the Missouri race will be tight, placing a huge premium
on voter turnout, which in turn depends on party organisation. The
Republicans, for now, seem to have the upper hand. The Bush/Cheney
re-election campaign has had a fully staffed office in Missouri for
months. It has appointed volunteer "county directors" in each of the
state's 114 counties and claims to have signed up 25,000 grass-roots
volunteers already. These volunteers sign up yet more recruits by
holding "parties for the president" and setting up shop at local
sporting and civic events.

The Democratic effort is more disjointed. New groups, such as America
Coming Together, are playing an important role in registering potential
Democratic voters. They are working closely with the unions, long an
important machine in Missouri politics. Democrats also have thousands
of volunteers signed up and co-ordinators in every county. But John
Kerry's state campaign director has only just been appointed. Worse,
the state Democratic Party is in the midst of bruising internal rifts.

After a lacklustre term, the governor, Bob Holden, is being challenged
for the Democratic nomination by the popular state auditor, Claire
McCaskill. That primary takes place in August, and most political
observers expect a bruising battle. Republicans, meanwhile, are united
behind their candidate for governor, Matt Blunt, a 33-year-old who is
currently secretary of state and comes from one of the most powerful
Republican families in Missouri.

The Republicans are also working hard to push issues that fire up
their conservative base. On the last day of its legislative session in
May, Missouri's Republican-controlled legislature voted to put a
constitutional amendment banning gay marriage on the November ballot.
Ostensibly, this was designed to prevent Massachussetts-style decisions
by Missouri's judges. But the real purpose is to get a subject on the
ballot that will draw conservative voters. Missouri is a socially
conservative state: pro-guns, pro-life and firmly against gay marriage.
In a close race this November, a few thousand extra social
conservatives at the polls could prove decisive.

[Racenut20]

1. Didn't the Mo Supreme Court put the gay marriage on the Primary ballot ?

I think I read that a while back.

Perhaps the Democratic primary for Governor will aid registration. I do know as a former resident, I am urging anyone I can reach in or outside the State to get involved. Excellent candidate opposing Kit Bond for the Senate, also. They need all the DU help they can get from the rest of us.

[Neecy]

2. Nancy Farmer is great

She introduced Kerry at his rally in KC last week, and she encouraged the crowd to vote out Asscroft a *second* time - which got a huge roar from the audience.

Wouldn't it be great to see the creepy little Bond gnome out of the Senate?

[buycitgo]

3. did 't dumbo win MO by a lot.....like 11 points in 00?

and he didn't win the election, so I don't go with this premise, to begin with

isn't Kerry behind by almost ten points here, now?

I think Ohio is much more representative of where the wind is blowing

btw, I didn't read much of the link, so if they deal with that, I is sorry

I take my lead from our fearless, non-reading Chimperial majesty

[hatrack]

5. No, it was about 3%, or about 70,000 votes

It wasn't a huge margin, though enough.

Tough call this time around. If anything, the state is getting even Thumpier, as exemplified by the General Assembly.

The Republican majorities trotted out the usual GGG issues this session - evolution, abortion, guns and gay marriage - and will do so again in the fall. The consolation is that the gay marriage amendment will go on the primary ballot instead of coming up in November. This was to be expected, in accordance with legal precedent. Thumpers are accordingly fired up for the general, at least according to the GOP spokespukes. And remember, this is the state that gave Al Hanson, a convicted felon with no relevant experience whatsoever, 600,000 votes for State Auditor in the 2002 election 'cuz he was against abortion. Hanson lost, in case you're worried.

On the other hand, the job losses have been nasty here over the past three years. Various GOP Congresscritters like Roy Blunt and Kit Bond have been imploring laid-off factory workers to embrace the glories of globalization when they 're not cracking dumbass jokes about France to fill those long empty pauses in the conversations. What job growth has come in the last six months has been largely in the form of (surprise!) temp and service industry McJobs. But whether economic discontent will be enough to trump the Thumpers in November is anyone's guess.

[markdd]

7. Twisted Story

Rep controlled legislature waited till after the deadline for Primary Election to sign bill and send to Dem Governor. Gov ordered it placed on Primary ballot anyway. Rep Sec of State (running for Gov this year) refused and it went to the state Supreme Court. Majority (4-3)of court are Dems. Court ruled 6-1 Governor has right to order it on the ballot. Can you imagine 2 Rep judges being called "activists"?

Theory is that a hot button like this will attract more fundies to the polls on election day, hurting Dem's chances; Prez, Gov and Sen are all contested races in MO this year. I don't know if MO has a requirement that more than X% of registered voters have to approve a constitutional amendment of if it's just a simple majority or a 2/3 majority.

[BillZBubb]

4. Missouri will be on the wrong side again.

Ohio is the real bellwether in this election. Missouri will go Bush* almost for sure. Whoever takes Ohio wins the election, no matter what Missouri does.

[hatrack]

6. Agree - bellwether status as predictor is magical thinking

If Kerry wins Ohio (and I think he's got a good chance to do so), Missouri doesn't matter.

[catmandu57]

8. There's many sad but wiser voters here now

With a whole lot of buyers remorse. There are many people I know who have registered to vote for the first time, mainly because they can't stand gw mcchimp*, and many young people who are scared to death of being drafted.
Our supreme court did us a big solid and put the gay marriage admendment on the August primary, which is bullshit anyway, but that's a different thread.
The election won't be as close this time.