U.S. Jobless Rate Misses "hidden" Unemployed

[shraby]

NEW YORK -- Buried inside the official U.S. employment report each month is a little-known figure that gives a much less rosy picture of the labor market than the headlines.

The government agency that produces the data also publishes an alternative measure that tries to capture the hidden unemployed, those who are not included in the official unemployment rate for various statistical reasons.

That broader measure is dramatically higher, at 9.7 percent in May, compared with the official level of 5.6 percent.

That's an extra 5.96 million people, in addition to the 8.2 million "officially" unemployed, who are waiting on the sidelines and may at some point step back into the labor force.

(more)
<http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2004/06/14/us_jobless_rate_misses_hidden_unemployed/>

[Racenut20]

1. The Raygun Administration

Changed to reporting to not include those whose unemployment benefits had run out.

By this Republican Congress and Administration not extending unemployment benefits, they "REMOVED" over a million from the unemployment rolls, thus REDUCING unemployment.

Pretty neat huh?

[tritsofme]

5. Wrong!

I don't know how many times I've seen this explained here on DU, but just because you drop off the UE rolls does NOT mean you are not counted as unemployed. If you no longer recieve benefits and you are still actively looking for work, you are counted as unemployed.

Discouraged workers have never been counted as unemployed, because they are not looking for work. This is the way the UE rate has always been calculated.

[stinkeefresh]

6. Explain to me how they know that.

Once I stop getting unemployment, how the hell does the gov't know that I'm looking or not looking for work? What forms do I fill out? What gov't agencies do I register with?

This makes no sense. The gov't has a tally of workers through payroll. They have a tally of unemployed through the unemployment system. What gov't system tracks people who are in neither of these systems, but still answering want ads?

[tritsofme]

9. The unemployment rate is calculated through the Household Survey

not by the amount of people on the unemployment rolls.

It is probably the most scientific survey that can be found, and it is of 60,000 households. That is how the unemployment rate is figured. If you drop off the rolls, and yet you still indicate through this survey that you are actively looking for work, then you are still counted as unemployed.

They are only about 3 million people collecting unemployment benefits, however there are 8 million people that are considered unemployed.

[Racenut20]

8. 'RIGHT !!!!!!

I was around when it happened.

[tritsofme]

10. See post 9

[PROGRESSIVE1]

2. Gee, isn't it convienient that they aren't counted in the numbers....

so that Bush can make things look better than they are?!!

:eyes:

Where's Frodo on this???

[trogdor]

3. various statistical reasons

like the fact that it doesn't look as good.

I still remember when 6% was an acceptable number. This is back when bell-bottom pants were still in style. Clinton's 4% figure was probably more like 6.5%. Not as nice, but it reflects reality, and you could still shop around for a new job. At 10% or higher, your boss (if you are fortunate enough to have one) pretty much owns you.

I suspect this is why they generate the other figure, but don't release it to the media. Those interested, like our bosses, can look it up and figure just how hard they can screw us, but the layman scarcely knows it exists.

[shraby]

4. You notice they never put out the

welfare statistics. I'd be willing to bet they are pretty high.

[On the Road]

7. I Was Looking for a Historical Chart of U6

but all I could find was this:



Yeah, things are getting better. Sort of.

[tritsofme]

11. Historic data for U6 unemployment rate

This is the U6 UE rate that I believe this article was refering to.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
1995 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.0
1996 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5
1997 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.4
1998 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.6
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
2000 7.0 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.2 8.8 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.9
2003 9.9 10.1 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.2 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9
2004 9.9 9.6 9.9 9.6 9.7