Wouldnt it make sense to pull out the October Surprise a bit early

[funkybutt]

since things are looking worse for * ever day?

Osama "capture" any day now?

[SheilaT]

1. My guess is that

they will try to have something happening every couple of weeks if they possibly can to divert attention from the quagmire in Iraq and the horrendous economy.

At least Reagan died relatively early in the campaign.

[FloridaPat]

2. It can't ruin Bush's month long vacation. Too soon and everyone

will forget. Has to be after the repub convention, unless that is going so badly they have to cancel the election then and there. Just remember what happened in 2002. The rush to war took up a lot of the time with Bush calling everyone who didn't agree with him a traitor. When the bill to give him the power to go to war with Iraq was passed, there was 6 weeks to election and the DC sniper came in to hog the headlines for the rest of the election. The Democrats didn't have a chance. They let Bushco run the show. They also agreed with everything he said, much to the distaste of their base.