To my good Canadian DU friends...please tell me this isn't true.

[terrya]

Is there a real possiblity that the Conservatives can win a majority a week from now? I can't imagine reading the words "Prime Minister Stephen Harper". Please, reassure me. One George W. Bush in North America is more than enough, thank you. :-)

[pagerbear]

1. I've heard there very well might be a conservative PM

....but the Conservative Party might not have a majority in the Parliament.

But what do I know? I'm just a iggerant 'murkin.

[Canuckistanian]

6. Iggerant? Not so, my ursine friend

You probably have it right!
:bounce:

[Minstrel Boy]

2. It is not true.

The Conservatives cannot win a majority government without either a breakthrough in Quebec or a sweep of Ontario. Neither is in the cards. It's not going to happen.

Conservative minority, yes. That's quite likely. And minority governments are not such a bad thing, because to govern the Conservatives would need to moderate their policies to accomodate at least one of the other parties, which are all to their left.

FWIW, which may not be much, here is my latest seat projection. There are 308 ridings, and 155 are needed for a majority.

Atlantic: Lib 14, Con 11, NDP 7
Quebec: Lib 22, BQ 53
Ontario: Lib 26, Con 63, NDP 17
Man & Sask: Lib 5, Con 12, NDP 10, Ind 1
Alberta: Lib 1, Con 26, NDP 1
BC: Lib 10, Con 15, NDP 10, Ind 1
Terr: Lib 1, NDP 2

Total: Con 127, Lib 78, BQ 53, NDP 49, Ind 2

[Screaming Lord Byron]

3. A majority? The arithmetic doesn't work. A minority? Possibly.

Still, look at the dynamics. The Cons are at 31-32% in the polls, and stand a good chance of winning the election. To form a majority they need at least 38%, which will be difficult to get, barring a Liberal meltdown. To win a majority without winning any seats in Quebec, where they are not expected to would require them taking 155 seats out of 233 (there are 75 seats in Quebec). That means that the combined NDP/Liberal total would have to be no more than 78. Historically, that has only happened twice, in 1958 and 1984. In 1984, Brian Mulroney achieved that with 50% of the vote, in 1958 John Diefenbaker achieved a similar result (couldn't find the exact figures, but it's in that ballpark). The majority of the seats in Quebec (say 55-60) are likely to be taken by the Bloc Quebecois, social democratic nationalists. They are unlikely to allow a Conservative minority administration to get away with much.
In short, we are prisoners of our electoral system.

[Canuckistanian]

4. No, highly unlikely.

The Conservative may win, but certainly not a majority. It will probably be a minority government, either Liberal (center) or Conservative (right wing).
Whoever wins will have to share power either with the NDP (left wing) or the Bloc (Quebec left). The Greens are looking to score, too, but may not get a seat in Parliament.
Either way, we will not have a totally right wing government.

[Spazito]

5. It will probably be a minority Liberal government, imo...

because 38 % in polls say their vote is very soft, may very well change on election day and 13% are undecided. That doesn't bode well for the Conservatives in the long run.