The Evacuation of Saudi Arabia

[earthside]

Below is an abstract from Janes Intelligence Digest.

Events in Saudi Arabia are very serious as the analysis indicates.
My hunch is that we may be in line for a "July Surprise" if the House of Saud begins to collapse. Bush will undoubtedly send troops into the Arabian peninsula to secure the oil fields. That means pulling troops out of Iraq and Kuwait (creating a vaccuum that the Iraqi resistence will fill), it means probable NATO troops in Arabia. It probably means full fledged war in the Middle East and close to, if not complete, martial law in the United States.
Sorry to be so pessimistic, but events do seem to indicate that this is the direction we are headed.

The Evacuation of Saudi Arabia

The steady exodus of expatriate workers from Saudi Arabia is set to gather pace in the coming weeks following the latest terrorist assault against foreigners in the Kingdom. JID assesses whether Al-Qaeda's long-standing strategy of destabilising the increasingly embattled House of Saud stands any real prospect of success.

Although the ousting of the Saudi royals has been predicted for some years the monarchy in the desert Kingdom has managed to survive thanks to support from the USA and its own policy of buying off or otherwise silencing its domestic opponents. However, with the US Department of State now urging its citizens to leave and the British Foreign Office issuing warnings to its own expatriates, the steady outflow of skilled Western workers is almost certain to gather pace - raising serious questions about the impact of an exodus of foreign technicians on the country's oil industry.

Of course, that is precisely the reaction that those who planned the attacks in Khobar on Sunday which left 22 dead are hoping. Of equal concern is the escape of three of the assailants amid mounting allegations by survivors that a deal was done between the militants and the Saudi security forces in return for the release of the remaining 41 hostages.

For some experienced Middle East analysts, there are significant parallels between the current situation in Saudi Arabia and the final months of the Shah of Iran before his flight into exile, followed by the Islamic revolution which swept the ayatollahs into power (and cost the USA one of its key regional allies). As one foreign policy veteran told JID: "The collapse of authority tends to be the end result of a self-fulfilling prophecy. Once there is the perception that the old regime is doomed, it is usually a matter of time before it actually collapses. We saw precisely this sequence of events in Iran in 1979."

There is mounting concern among Western intelligence agencies that Al-Qaeda's next move will be to target the Kingdom's oil infrastructure in order to disrupt production. Any incident which threatens to reduce Saudi exports is almost certain to fuel the escalating price of oil - which reached a 21-year high at the end of May (although in real terms, this is still lower than the peaks reached during the 1973 oil crisis).

[bleedingheart]

1. A key indicator for me of the fall of the house of Saud would be

the mass exodus of the Saudi royal family and all its princes and princesses....now that would be a signal....

[amber dog democrat]

2. The * Administration

has managed to threaten the welfare not only of American citizens inside and outside of the United Staes, but the balance of power in the Middle East, and much of the world economy too.

What will they think of next?
What do you expect when you smack a hornets nest with a baseball bat?

[stopthegop]

3. "close to, if not complete, martial law in the United States."

now...there's a leap of logic...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. Hmmmm

Why will there be martial law in the United States if there's a revolution in Saudi Arabia...

Seems like a non sequitar to me....

[earthside]

12. Martial Law Scenario

Imagine the collapse of the Saudi ruling elite.
Chaos rules in Kobhar and Jedda and Riyadh.
Al Qaida and other extreme Wahabi factions take control of government institutions.
Islamic governments around the world express grave and serious concern for the safety and sanctity of the holy shrines in Mecca. They warn the US about taking hasty action.

Oil goes to $500 a barrel.
Unrest at the Arabian oil depots causes the loading of tankers to grind to a halt.
Bush orders half of the combat units in Iraq and Kuwait into the Arabian oil fields. NATO begins preparations to go into the former 'Saudi' Arabia to help the Americans secure the petroleum production vital to the survival of the west.

Lines a mile long start showing up at gas stations all over the United States. Bush opens the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but also imposes rationing to prevent hoarding.

Americans all over the country can't get to work because they have run out of gas and cannot afford to refill. Tightness of fuel supply means trucks are not delivering sufficient supplies ... the food on grocery store shelves dwindles. Panic starts to infect the nation.

Tom Ridge announces that the Terror Alert has been raised to 'RED'.

Now, think about what kind of a 'person' Dick Cheney is ... what do you think he will do?

[LittleApple81]

5. WHO IS GOING TO EXTRACT THE OIL??? Foreigners are the workers

in Saudi Arabia....

[DemocratSinceBirth]

6. I Still Want To Know How This Leads To Martial Law

Maybe a draft...

[LittleApple81]

9. I think you placed your post in the wrong place. But my 2 cents: we are

getting there by using the "terra" excuse. Today I saw the stun gun post using Laser stuns to control CROWDS???? Which crowds might that be??? And the only people being visited by the FBI to check on "potential threats" are the ones that dare speak up.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. dupe

[gasperc]

8. this is from June 4th...have we been in a coma

we need a resident Jane's reader to post from there more regularly

[janx]

10. GOOD. I think everybody should leave.

Let the Saudis figure it out. Bush* has coddled them for too long.

[ewagner]

11. Herein lies the danger

I spent the first few days after 9/11 alone in a car traveling my sales district. I had a lot of time to think and Saudi Arabia weighed heavily on my mind.

The Royal family in Saudi Arabia has been playing this dangerous game for years: buying off the radicals in exchange for peace within the Kingdom. After 9/11 they must have been horrified that the dangerous Wahhabis(sp) they had spawned had enraged their chief protector, the United States. They knew that the US would have to retaliate against Al Queda but did they underestimate the strength of the AQ/fundamentalist movement within their own country? Could they have cracked down on the fundamentalist within their own country then? I asked this question on those days immediately after 9/11.

The invasion of Iraq could not have been good for the Saudi Family. True, we took our bases out of the country, but we certainly made no friends in the Arab world. Did we intensify the hate?

Obviously, the Royal Family never cracked down on or tempered the radical fundamentalist and in a sense, committed suicide. If US troops have to go into Saudi Arabia to protect our oil supply, we will indeed be in for another generation of war....and beheadings will become all too common.

[JCMach1]

13. I find this scenario unlikely... however this will

indeed put further pressure on oil prices... and yes, workers are leaving the KSA in droves at present. Many are, or will be leaving for Summer and many will not return.

KSA is NOT Iran, no matter how much the analysts would like to think. The house of Saud is universally reviled by Saudis, by they see no alternative at the present.

[mmonk]

14. If the oil companies fill the void

of withdrawing Americans with young Saudi workers, then maybe the situation can stabilize as Al Queada or militant wahabbi extremism may fall out of favor with the local population.