Snow Expects More Jobs in Coming Months

[GreenPartyVoter]

WASHINGTON (AP) - Treasury Secretary John Snow said Sunday he expects continued strong economic growth and "lots and lots of good jobs" created in the coming months.

At the same time, however, he said world affairs have so dominated the public's attention that the strong growth is not reflected in polls about President Bush's stewardship of the economy.

"There's been so much attention to other things, particularly the war in Iraq, that it's deflected attention from the economy," Snow said. "But the news on the economy ... is so good and so pervasive, so far-reaching, that I think people will change their views here."

The nine-month period that ended April 30 showed an annual growth of 5.5 percent in the gross domestic product, which measures the value of all goods and services produced in the United States. That was the strongest three-quarter growth in 20 years, Snow said on CNN's "Late Edition."


http://apnews1.iwon.com/article/20040620/D83AVJO00.html

[mhr]

1. Like The Snow Job Already Done!

65% of The 1.4 Million New Jobs Were Created By A BLS Computer

No one knows if they exist or not!

Look at www.bls.gov - Birth/Death model.

Mr, Bush and Rove are touting Bush**** once again.

Also see the reports from www.comstockfunds.com

Labor Picture Still Anemic

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1108&menugroup=Home

We have long contended that the economic recovery and the consumer spending that propelled it were artificially based on the massive stimulation that enabled consumers to convert the wealth effect of soaring home prices and major tax cuts into ready cash despite the absence of adequate employment and wage gains. The latest data continues to support the view that employment and wage growth have been unusually tepid in the current cycle. Here are some very simple facts culled from the historical data.

On average, over the past six economic expansions, it took 24 months for total non-farm payroll employment to reach its previous peak, with a range of 19-to-32 months. Now, with the reporting of the May 2004 number, we are 38 months beyond the prior peak, and employment is still 1.37 million under its prior high. At this pace it would take another five months of average 275,000 increases just to reach the previous peak. Given these figures it is no wonder that the Fed has been so reluctant to raise rates and eliminate the only factor holding up a fragile economy.

The lack of employment growth is real and is reflected in the lack of wage gains. In the first 29 months of the last five economic recoveries the rise in wage and salary disbursements accounted, on average, for 67 percent of the gain in consumer disposable income (DPI), with a range of 59-to-79 percent. In the current expansion the increase in wages and salaries has accounted for only 33 percent of the growth in DPI. This means that an unusual two-thirds of the gain in DPI was made up of items other than wages and salaries—and the massive amounts of cash-outs from mortgage refinancing are not even part of the DPI.

Snip ......

Phantom Jobs?

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act=Newsletter.cfm&category=Market%20Commentary&newsletterid=1106&menugroup=Home

According to the headlines and the releases by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), payroll employment increased by a total of 947,000 in the last three months—353,000 in March, 346,000 in April and 248,000 in May. Since it is well known that this figure is based on an actual survey of a large number of establishments one might presume that the result is based on actual head counts. It turns out, however, that this is not the case. In fact, a large majority of the employment growth that was reported and so widely hailed in the last three months is based on a guess attributable to an arcane formula used by the BLS to estimate employment changes resulting from the birth and death of business establishments.

Snip ......

According to the BLS, “The most significant potential drawback to this or any model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes a predictable continuation of historical patterns and relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or during periods when there are sudden changes in trend…it is likely to remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process.”

The problem is that for the three months ending in May the estimation model contributed a total of 618,000 of the 947,000 rise in payroll employment—153,000 in March, 270,000 in April and 195,000 in May. Thus for the three months, 65 percent of the total growth in employment is an estimate based on the formula, and only 35 percent were actually counted. Now this may be a completely valid procedure that reflects the real number of jobs added. But it also can be way off base and result in the creation of phantom jobs that don’t exist. Nobody knows, including the BLS. The agency itself states that the model would have some difficulty at turning points, and this period would seem to fall into that category.

Snip ......

[Eric J in MN]

7. Comstock was a little too kind.

Yes, it's difficult to count the number of jobs, but what is stopping the Labor Dept. from using a more straightforward approach?

Why can't the number of people who paid FICA taxes on the 15th of each month be the main statistic by which we judge if the number of jobs is increasing or decreasing?

That wouldn't count some black-market jobs, but at least it would be a reliable way to compare.

[mmonk]

2. sounds like a Snow job to me

[Oddman]

3. Wow - the green party supports bush!

How about that?


“Cripes . . .I can’t even spell Preserdent . . .
but the Green Party loves me! I got them fools!”

[mmonk]

4. military jobs?

[Eric J in MN]

8. The jobs may be military-related, but they're civilian (nt)

nt

[mmonk]

5. Is he

counting the job growth in China?

[Media_Lies_Daily]

6. Hmmmm...by "lots and lots of good jobs" is he referring to all of...

...those wonderful temporary, part-time, and contractual jobs that make up 35% of the total new jobs while computer modeling is making up the remaining 65% based on SWAGS (super wild ass guesses)?

And how is the rise in gasoline prices (current temporary downturn in prices) along with the anticipated rise in heating oil prices going to affect the economy in the Fall?

Everyone seems to also be skipping over the fact that housing starts are down during a period of the year when housing construction should be on the upswing. And how are the rising mortgage interest rates going to affect sales of new and existing homes?

And the ultimate trump card will be played when the Fed begins to ratchet up interest rates. Any guesses when that will happen? I suspect that the Fed will wait until AFTER the election regardless of the outcome.

[Eric J in MN]

9. in spite of the talk of the Fed raising rates, I'll be surpised if it's

In spite of the talk of the Fed raising rates, I'll be surpised if it's done before November.

[Cleita]

10. He also blamed Clinton saying that Bush inherited the

recession from Clinton. Liars! liars! All of them to the last man are liars!

[Veggie Meathead]

11. Chauncey Gardener says:During spring there are a lot of jobs

to do in the garden,planting shrubs, weeding the garden, watering the plants and so on.When winter comes there are a lot of jobs to do removing the snow, clearing the walkways and driveways and so on.Only a wise man like Snow can catch on to these changes of the seasons.