HERSH: PLAN B (Israelis, Kurds, and losing Iraq)

[nostamj]

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040628fa_fact

In July, 2003, two months after President Bush declared victory in Iraq, the war, far from winding down, reached a critical point. Israel, which had been among the war’s most enthusiastic supporters, began warning the Administration that the American-led occupation would face a heightened insurgency—a campaign of bombings and assassinations—later that summer. Israeli intelligence assets in Iraq were reporting that the insurgents had the support of Iranian intelligence operatives and other foreign fighters, who were crossing the unprotected border between Iran and Iraq at will. The Israelis urged the United States to seal the nine-hundred-mile-long border, at whatever cost.

The border stayed open, however. “The Administration wasn’t ignoring the Israeli intelligence about Iran,” Patrick Clawson, who is the deputy director of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and has close ties to the White House, explained. “There’s no question that we took no steps last summer to close the border, but our attitude was that it was more useful for Iraqis to have contacts with ordinary Iranians coming across the border, and thousands were coming across every day—for instance, to make pilgrimages.” He added, “The questions we confronted were ‘Is the trade-off worth it? Do we want to isolate the Iraqis?’ Our answer was that as long as the Iranians were not picking up guns and shooting at us, it was worth the price.”

Clawson said, “The Israelis disagreed quite vigorously with us last summer. Their concern was very straightforward—that the Iranians would create social and charity organizations in Iraq and use them to recruit people who would engage in armed attacks against Americans.”

The warnings of increased violence proved accurate. By early August, the insurgency against the occupation had exploded, with bombings in Baghdad, at the Jordanian Embassy and the United Nations headquarters, that killed forty-two people. A former Israeli intelligence officer said that Israel’s leadership had concluded by then that the United States was unwilling to confront Iran; in terms of salvaging the situation in Iraq, he said, “it doesn’t add up. It’s over. Not militarily—the United States cannot be defeated militarily in Iraq—but politically.”

[KoKo]

1. So, does this mean the "drumbeat" for war with Iran is beginning? The

PNAC crowd has been all over C-Span in the past months pushing and pushing that Iran has nukes, Iran will use nukes, Iran if funding Palestinian terrorists, Iran is sending terrorists into Iraq, etc., etc.

So, what do we do? Nuke Iran? Expand the war over the border? Get the UN to convince Nato to air strike Iran?

Iran is the next step in the plan, it seems. How we can afford this, I don't know. :shrug:

[Bombtrack]

7. We don't have the ability to invade Iran

our troops are stretched to the limit occupying a third world country and fighting a guerilla insurgency, AND attepting to stabalize Afghanistan. Iran has a very strong defense capability that makes Iraq's look like the freaking Rhode Island national guard in comparison.

It isn't going to happen.

[Racenut20]

2. Looking for an excuse to bomb the Iranian Nuke stuff

Like Isreal did to Iraq.

[Jacobin]

3. Guess Israel thought we should build a wall between

Iraq and Iran, kinda like their cute new wall around the Palestinians.

The whole clusterfuck is now down to nothing more than finger pointing about how great the invasion and conquest would have been IF ONLY we had just "done it right".

:eyes:

[whosinpower]

4. There is once again a disconnect between

Intelligence and reality....unless the situation has somewhat changed - by all accounts the sheer number of foreign fighters is miniscule and is well known that the insurgency is Iraqi born.

Ah well....now the USA knows how it feels when a foreign nation BUTTS in with small independant groups just like Afghanistan with Bin Laden.......karma in action.

[in_cog_ni_to]

5. The Iranian borders

were left open on purpose to give the cabal an excuse to attack Iran. It's part of the PNAC plan...is it not? Iran is one of the "axis of evil".....one problem...our military cannot handle another war. What a fucking mess this man has created. My g-d.

[nostamj]

6. they can't even hand the current war...

and it looks like things will only get worse to the north and the south...

[in_cog_ni_to]

8. kick

This is a great article.

[UTUSN]

9. BARAK to CHEENEE: "Pick the size of your humiliation"

What's it going to take...

[Junkdrawer]

11. Or, as I've always said, "How radical do you want your theocracy?"..

Thanks to us, Iraq is destined for a theocracy. This is mostly because mosques are the favorite organizing vehicles for disenfranchised Muslims, witness Iran.

[Junkdrawer]

12. Kick

:kick:

[Junkdrawer]

10. So, if Iraq deteriorates, Israel will support forming Kurdistan?

And that will help how?

-- Or --

Is Israel only saying it will support a new Kurdistan so Kurds will continue to help Israel spy on Syria and Iran?

[UTUSN]

13. Kick for Discuss Among Yourselves n/t

[Massacure]

14. If the U.S. put a soldier every 520 feet they would need only 9,000 troops

Now they are playing dearly. As much as I hate to say it, they deserve it.

[Tinoire]

15. Frightening.

World War III is now in in earnest.

[JanMichael]

16. As much as I hate the misAdministration...How could they be SO STUPID?!

Good gawd.

[Tinoire]

17. Here's more: The End of the Affair?

The End of the Affair?
Israel and Turkey head for divorce.

By Ilan Berman

<snip>

Since their start in the early 1990s, the military and defense ties between Ankara and Jerusalem have evolved into one of the Middle East's most important geopolitical alliances. But now, that strategic partnership has begun showing signs of serious strain. Angered by Israel's recent offensive against the Hamas terrorist organization, eager to boost ties with Europe and new regional allies, and responding to the demands of its core Islamist constituency, the government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have begun a unilateral rollback of strategic cooperation with Jerusalem.

<snip>

Just months after its conclusion, the future of a long-awaited accord to bring Turkish water to Israel is in question. Disputes over the projected route of the pipeline have created friction between the two countries, and rumors now abound that Turkey's ruling Justice and Development party (AKP) has cancelled the arrangement outright — dealing a major blow to Israel's already-strained hydrological resources, which would have received 15 million cubic meters of water annually from Turkey's Manavgat River under the agreement.

At the same time, Ankara is said to have instituted a rollback of military and defense contacts with Jerusalem, including a freeze on Israeli participation in tenders for the purchase of helicopters, remote piloted aircraft and tanks — all ostensibly as part of a new drive for domestic military manufacturing.

These moves have been mirrored on the diplomatic front. In late May, in yet another indication of the new tenor of ties between the two countries, the Turkish government signaled that it might temporarily recall its ambassador for consultations — a threat it has since followed through on. Prime Minister Erdogan, meanwhile, has publicly snubbed Israel, rejecting a formal invitation to visit the Jewish state in recent meetings with Israeli Infrastructure Minister Joseph Paritzky, and even going so far as equating Israel's actions in Palestinian-controlled Rafah to "state terrorism."

<snip>

Israeli policymakers, dazed by the rapid turnaround in the strategic partnership, are now scrambling to mend fences. But the Israeli government's ability to alter this trend is limited; the health of Israeli-Turkish ties remains largely dependent on the political priorities and foreign-policy trajectory of the AKP itself. And, at least for now, their future is uncertain, as Turkey continues to drift away from its traditional role of an independent, pro-Western partner in the Middle East.


http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/berman200406210826.asp