Kerry breaks 300 in electoral vote survey (Bush* at 232)

[LoZoccolo]

I'm thinking Kerry will eventually get all the states listed as "barely Bush", Arizona, New Mexico, Virginia and Wisconsin, making the final count 340-194 for Kerry.

http://www.electoral-vote.com

I'm actually surprised that he broke 300 this soon; I thought he'd get just about that in the final count.

[Beetwasher]

1. WTF is Going on with WI?

Anyone?

And as much as I hate it, we have to plan on winning without FL.

[Poiuyt]

12. Rural areas and Northeast Wisconsin are Republican

Milwaukee and Madison are Democratic.

My sister works in a bank in Appleton (NE WI) and says that she hears a lot of Bush bashing. It used to be a dark secret if you didn't support a Republican president, but there are a lot of angry people. Wisconsin has lost a lot of manufacturing jobs.

[Jackpine Radical]

13. I'd bet on Kerry carrying WI.

Maybe I'm just delusional, but I don't see that much Bush support in West Central WI, which has at times gone Republican.

[ElementaryPenguin]

2. Bush is going to lose Ohio and PA - unless there's some major Diebold

And he may even lose Florida as well - if Kerry can apply enough legal pressure.

[DaveSZ]

4. Is Missouri turning into a red state?

It voted Bush last time, and now that Bush has made a mess of everything, it's even more solidly for BUsh.

[greekspeak]

10. The last state poll I saw showed Kerry winning in Missouri

Missouri is a lavender state. Has been for years. It went for Shrub, yes, but not by a gigantic margin. It went Clinton twice, Reagan twice...hell in the fifties it went Eisenhour once and Stevenson in the next election! It all depends on who is more worked up...the core democratic portions of the state, or the core Republican portions. Some counties blow wherever the breezes take them.

[Jmeyers130]

3. i'm insulted...

that my home of New Jersey is on there as "Barely Kerry." We voted strong against him last time...They must be polling the wrong people b/c Jersey is Democratic soil

[59millionmorons]

5. Last poll I saw kerry was up 9%

NJ is in the bag. PA voted Dem three straight elections, unless the GOP manages to get rid of Philly and Pittsburgh, a barely breathing Democrat will win PA.

[orthogonal]

6. According to that site, Kerry broke 300 in May

I'm actually surprised that he broke 300 this soon; I thought he'd get just about that in the final count.

But the same site had Kerry at 307 in the second week of June and at 312 for several days early June, and at 327 in May:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/jun/jun11.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/jun/jun10.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/jun/jun09.html
http://www.electoral-vote.com/may/may27.html

[LoZoccolo]

7. Oh dang.

Ha I haven't been following it for that long, thanks.

[Kimber Scott]

8. Arizona - Barely Bush? Woohoo!

What great news! (This really is an accomplishmnent!)

[TexasSissy]

9. Woop Woop Woop Woop! This is great news!

[Dardi]

11. Here is a good state by state analysis by Larry Sabato

It looks like another close one:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/electoratemap.php

They disagree on Florida, Ohio, Delaware (I think), Wisconsin and New Mexico. It looks like Nevada and its 5 electoral votes could be very, very important. In fact, if Nevada swings for Bush and the rest of Sabato's map is right, we'll have an electoral college tie with the House making the decision ... and that would likely mean four more years of Bush.