If Bush drops Cheney and picks Colin Powell or John McCain

[Gman]

Poll question: If Bush drops Cheney and picks Colin Powell or John McCain

as the VP running mate, how would that switch affect the November election?

A move like this would send the undecideds a certain and unmistakable message that Bush is moving to a more moderate position. Its common knowledge that the undecideds normally break for the opponent 85% - 15%. Bush could conceivably make this 50-50 or even better by dropping Cheney in favor of McCain or Powell.

This move may also send the same moderation message to "wayward" Republicans thinking of voting for Kerry. And, the McCain as Kerry's running mate rumor may well have been a trial balloon aimed at moderate Republicans to make McCain seem to be someone everyone can support.

But this while this move would clearly signal moderation on military and foreign policy matters, there would be no change in the signals for domestic social issues which Bush continues to believe to be his strong points.

So, which do you agree with about a Bush/Powell or Bush/McCain ticket:

I'd like to know your thoughts on why you feel a certain way.

---on edit--
For those voting Cheney's a lock. Is it because dumping Bush would be the political equivalent of declaring the ship is sinking and to abandon ship?

[drb]

1. If they dump Cheney, they're stuck in the...

...position of finding someone with name recognition and advanced skills as a ventriloquist. That won't be easy!

[cmayer]

2. Powell, McCain have 0% chance of VP

The choices are Gulliani (75%) or Rice (15).

[Sagan]

3. It wouldn't surprise me, though I'm conflicted...

Chimpy has always tried to run as a moderate and then govern as a right-wing fundie. It's the entire basis of the "genius" mantle of KKKarl.

However, I know that Cheney is the grey eminence calling the shots, or at least many of them. The disorganization of the misAdministration does lend credence to the idea that no-one is really in charge, though.

I would say there is a 35% chance of Cheney being dropped, depending on polling between now and the Repug hate-fest in NYC.

[Sinistrous]

4. IMO, Cheney will not be on the ticket.

Then if (heaven help us) * is reinstalled, Cheney will quietly appear as a special advisor to the throne. After all, Poppy has to keep the pipeline intact between the Oval Office and the rest of the BFEE.

Who takes Cheney's place on the ticket is irrelevant.

[drdigi420]

5. It's the Cheney Administration

They wont dump the guy thats really in charge

[terrya]

6. Cheney is not going to allow Bush to dump him., Simple as that.

[Sirveri]

7. I don't know if Powell or McCain would actually accept.

Powell has been getting slapped around by the admin for a while and has done his good job as a soldier. McCain was smeared to hell and back in the primaries. I'm not sure either of them would want the job. Now Mayor Rudy, that's a choice that everyone could see. He could walk around just chanting 9/11 and beaming stars out of his asshole at people and they'd probably vote for his stupid ass.

[Gman]

8. This was one of several lunch topics today

But my friend who is as astute as anyone is convinced that one of these two will take the VP nomination instead of Cheney. I think he has a big point that the rumors about McCain being Kerry's VP may well have been a trial balloon to show he's someone everyone can live with. He also thinks Powell could have the opportunity to be the first African American VP candidate in history.

I really don't see Powell because of the rumors that Powell is outa here after the election no matter what because he's so pissed about the way he's been treated and the hits his credibility took.

And I don't see McCain doing it because of the vicious rumors about McCain's sanity after being a POW plus the rumors about his alleged black love child before the SC primary.

The idea of signaling moderation with a different VP candidate is an act of sheer desparation. It may well be a matter of who because I don't think anyone, including a bunch of people in the GOP, albeit discreetly, doesn't think Bush is in severe trouble. As for who will be the VP pick, I don't think it will be Giulianni as he is too closely identified with 9/11 and the GOP has already been accused of exploiting the dead of 9/11 with the convention and the early Bush campaign commercials.

The bottom line is Bush must do something desperate as his campaign is in desperate times.

[AlinPA]

11. re: McCain: McCain spent two days with Bush* campaigning in

the SW and Washington state. McCain was hugging him and they were buddy-buddy. I'm not going to be surprised if its McCain.

[Gman]

12. McCain also campaigned for Bush in New Hampshire

at the same time all the Dems were fighting it out. He flew very slightly under the radar, but made his presence known very subtly.

There are definitely good arguments that McCain as VP may be the ultimate act of desparation by Bush.

[Wonco_the_Sane]

9. No difference

It's still Shrub* and a glorified postmaster general

[ElectroPrincess]

10. Can't happen - And it's President Cheney. LOL

Cheney is making all the executive decisions with Rummy and Ashcroft. Rice babysits Bush in the interm. And Powell "puts out fires" and promotes the propaganda campaign. That's the system. McCain would not follow. Powell is burning out.

[markses]

13. How about this choice: It will signal the utter dishonesty of the Bush WH

And cause him to lose in a landslide?

All your choices other than "no difference" and "won't happen" are positive for GOP. I think it would have a negative effect on voter perception, and that's WHY it won't happen.

[Gman]

14. Yes, the choices are mostly positive for Bush

with the thought being, if this happens it could very well be an October Surprise type event. Personally, I think moderate Republicans and many of the undecideds are begging for Bush to show any kind of sign of moderation. I think either of these veep choices may catch the Democratic Party and Kerry campaign totally unprepared with a response. What are the Democrats going to do? Attack McCain? Attack Powell? While most of here at DU would answer, "yes, attack the hell out of McCain and Powell", keep in mind that both these guys command a lot of respect regardless of our feelings here. They both have a lot of positives in the eyes of the general electorate. And "common sense" types are not bad attributes.

I think the appropriate response to this ticket would be something along the lines of "yes, either of these choices are fine men", and address the resurrection of the "compassionate conservative" line by simply communicating that this is all fine and dandy, but it doesn't change the complete loss of respect for the US in the eyes of the world, nor does it change the fact that we were lied to about WMD's and the reasaons for war in Iraq, etc.

You know, I really just can't see McCain nor Powell running around saying things like "we have to defeat these barbaric terrorists". But we better be ready for something.

[markses]

15. Dropping Cheney as vice president at this point would be disastrous

It would signal confusion and disarray in the White House, and would also provide the implication that some wrongdoing has occurred. It is an utter loser, and would not work. Any supposed benefit that you describe would be far outweighed by the defecit of disorganization + possible criminality.

[kerryadviser]

16. Check this out.

Kerry seems to be done selecting.

http://foshoflash.com/exclusives/Quick/kerryedwardsticket.htm

[markses]

18. Ummmmm....okaaaayyyyy

Sure. :eyes:

[fortyfeetunder]

17. There is one possible way Cheney could be replaced

Incapacity to perform the job due to serious illness or death.

[Dardi]

19. Cheney may or may not be replaced

but it won't be by Powell or McCain. Not in a million years. Both are popular with swing voters and some Democrats but are extremely unpopular with the Republican base (especially Powell). McCain may have been a very slight possibility before his VP tango with Kerry. Now that's gone. If it's not Cheney it'll be Frist or Guiliani or possibly Rice. Maybe someone else from a swing state.