John Kerry leads Bush in Arkansas Poll 47 percent to 45 (Clinton bump ?)

[JI7]

if this is true i really believe clinton has a lot to do with it.
while this is still within the margin of error , one should look at how much support bush has lost and how kerry has gained to see the real good news. i love president clinton.

<CPOD) Jun. 23, 2004 – Massachusetts senator John Kerry could carry the state of Arkansas in the 2004 United States presidential election, according to a poll by Zogby Interactive published in the Wall Street Journal Online. 46.8 per cent of respondents would vote for the prospective Democratic nominee, while 44.7 per cent would support Republican incumbent George W. Bush.

Independent candidate Ralph Nader garners the support of 2.1 per cent of respondents. The election is scheduled for Nov. 2.

Support for Bush dropped by 6.5 per cent since early June, while backing for Kerry increased by 3.3 per cent.

Jimmy Carter in 1976—and former governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996—are the only Democrats to carry Arkansas in a presidential election since 1968. Bush won the state’s six electoral votes in 2000, with 51.3 per cent of all cast ballots. >

http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseaction=viewItem&itemID=3140

[fujiyama]

1. First poll

I've seen with Kerry in the lead in that state! I hope others confirm it, and I hope he keeps it (I think Clark or even Edwards will help a great deal in that state).

Very Cool! This is a great thing to read before going to bed. Thanks!

[Anarcho-Socialist]

2. Great news! n/t

[Supormom]

3. Clinton Bump

Is that a new dance?

[Syrinx]

4. yeah, but it's a horizontal one

:P

[Syrinx]

5. maybe it'll spread down this way

It's a good sign for the fall.

[RoyGBiv]

6. Tangent: Small Rant

Jimmy Carter in 1976—and former governor Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996—are the only Democrats to carry Arkansas in a presidential election since 1968. Bush won the state’s six electoral votes in 2000, with 51.3 per cent of all cast ballots.

I hate the subtle ways reporters word things. It's a toss-up whether this is for dramatic effect or is indicative of bias, but either way, it's annoying.

"Only" Carter and Clinton? "Since" 1968, Democrats have taken Arkansas three times and Republicans five times. If we exclude 1972, which was basically a rigged election, it's 3 times to four. In other words, the actual numbers placed in context paint a somewhat different than the word "only" implies. That implication is that Kerry will have a very hard time taking AR, a supposed Republican stronghold. He has a helluva lot better chance than McGovern or Dukakis did. Bush only took it in 2000 by 50,000 votes.

A lot of reporters use "since 1968" as the boundary for things like this. I suspect one reason why is that it dismisses 1968 and its complications and includes 1972, which, for every state but Massachusetts, gives the Republicans an automatic mark.

[Syrinx]

7. you make a great point!

Thanks for that.

[Racenut20]

8. We would be campaigning for President Gore

If Clinton had campaigned in Arkansas in 2000.

This is great news. We were a long ways behind there. Kerry can win by keeping his base and getting the border states. He wouldn't need the deep South.

[dbt]

9. bu$h is in DEEP doo-doo.

For openers, this is a Zogby poll. Zogby is the only one of the polling services that I will even pay attention to, because they're usually right.

In the second place, bu$h and/or Cheney have been here six or seven times this year. That alone "should" have kept bu$hie in the lead, given the tendency of Arkies to rally around a leader in times of crisis.

For all the brilliant Democrats we have given the nation--Fulbright, Bumpers, Pryor and Clinton--Arkansas is a conservative place. This election should be a lock for bu$h, except for the fetid, stinking mess he has made of EVERYTHING.

If the Boy King can't carry Arkansas, he's toast!

:bounce:
dbt

[dusty64]

10. Arkansas IS a tossup

this year and could go either way. Hopefully Democratic resources will be spent there.

[JI7]

11. Kerry is spending in the state

he is also looking to Clinton to help him out there.

[DeepModem Mom]

12. kick