Even though there are new non partisan polls that show a different story. We now can understand why they have Bush leading 47-40, they only polled there staff.
Florida: Bush 48%, Kerry 38%, Nader 3% (Fox News)
Michigan: Bush 42%, Kerry 40%, Nader 5% (Fox News)
Ohio: Bush 45%, Kerry 41%, Nader 4% (Fox News)
Pennsylvania: Bush 46%, Kerry 41%, Nader 3% (Fox News)
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Which one doesnt fit?
http://www.electoral-vote.com/Kerry Bush Nader
38 48 3 Fox News
47 46 2 American Research Group
48 42 1 Rasmussen
The enormous descrepancy between Fox and the other two really raises some serious issues. A net difference of 16% between Fox and Rasmussen makes one wonder if Fox polls are reliable. Scott Rasmussen is also known to have strong Republican ties, but he is running a polling company, not a TV station, and probably understands that inaccurate polls, even if they favor his guy, are not going to impress potential future customers. This is a tough call, but we are going to go with the one in the middle because to say Bush is way ahead when two other polls say he is behind is hard to swallow.
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Bush, Kerry in dead heat in Pennsylvania, Quinnipiac University poll finds; Nader holds the key to keystone state
IN PENNSYLVANIA...
GENERAL ELECTION
BUSH 43
KERRY 49
...ADD NADER
BUSH 43
KERRY 44
NADER 7 (Nader not getting anywere near 7%, only got 2% in 2000)
BUSH JOB APPROVAL
APPROVE 45
DISAPPROVE 53
SENATE
HOEFFEL 35
SPECTER 50
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Ohio Poll-Kerry 49-43
http://americanresearchgroup.com/ohg /
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Florida poll (Rasmussen)
Rolling sample of 400 LV, conducted June 10-24:
MOE +-5
Kerry 48 (48)
Bush 42 (44)
With leaners:
Kerry 54 (49)
Bush: 44 (47)
Rolling sample of 600 LV, conducted June 3-24:
MOE +-4
Kerry 48 (48)
Bush 42 (45)