Global warming...some facts?

[DemocraticDonkey]

Hi, I'm not a scientist, but I do know that some scientists beleive that global warming is caused by irresponsible human activity, while others argue that it is a natural cycle and isn't a problem. It seems to me like the majority of the scientific community beleives that global warming is in fact a real threat, but a friend that I was discussing this with disputes that. What is the general conventional wisdom on this topic nowadays.

Sorry for the idiocy, the google searching wasn't yielding much but propaganda from both sides...

[shraby]

1. You might find some good info at

<http://www.sciam.com> Scientific American

<http://www.discover.com> Discover Magazine

<http://www.popsci.com> Popular Science Magazine

<http://www.nationalgeographic.com> I think this is the add.

These mags also have links to more info. Lotsa luck

[Systematic Chaos]

2. Just look at what we already know.

We know that carbon dioxide acts as a thermal blanket which traps heat. We also know that we're pumping an awful lot of carbon dioxide into our atmosphere. The relationship between the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide and the increase in global temperature has a positive correlation that's just too high to ignore, and the odds of that being just a random fluctuation over the course of millenia is mighty slim.

As a side note, I wonder if the people who refute global warming are the same people who steadfastly claim that there are untold millions MORE trees on this continent than there were 300 years ago?

[FloridaPat]

3. Well, the poles are meting at an alarming rate. Should the

poles totally melt, all cities and towns on the ocean or bays will be under water. The midwest use to be under water. Could be again. Higer temperatures make for more deserts. The Sahara has expanded quit a lot over the last few decades and starvation has followed. That has been blamed on bad farming techniques though.

[MalachiConstant]

5. well,

it doesn't help that bush cut over half a billion from the epa's budget. and totally blew off any vehicle emission talks.

i was in borders the other day and saw a book titled "bush versus the environment" so true, so true. i would have picked it up, but my booklist is too long as it is.

[Systematic Chaos]

6. Hello, MalachiConstant!

Welcome to DU!

[MalachiConstant]

7. thanks!

[Arianrhod]

4. Link to Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute,

a prestigious organization that is actively investigating the effects of global warming:

http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm

[muriel_volestrangler]

8. The majority of scientists do think man is causing global warming

but that doesn't necessarily mean they're right, of course.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the international body, run by the UN and World Meteorological Organisation, leading the research. It includes a wide variety of scientists, some more sceptical than others. Try its Summaries for Policy Makers (SPMs).

Always be aware that short news reports may over-simplify the conclusions of scientists - eg reporting "temperatures may rise by 6 degrees centirgrade by 2100"; the actual range given might have been 1 degree to 6 degrees, depending on the assumptions and models, and 6 degress might be an unlikely rise.

Some things are uncontested - like that the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air has gone up by about 20% in the last 50 years (and is about 30% above the steady level it was between 1000 and 1800), and that, with everything else staying the same, this would cause an increase in temperature. Nearly everyone also agrees this increase in CO2 is from man-made emissions. What is less clear is how the other factors (eg cloud cover, forest area, soot particles, the behaviour of the sea) mitigate, increase or even reverse, the change. If you want to make future predictions, you also have to make economic predictions, which are probably even more unreliable than anything that climate scientists produce.

It's not a perfect science, so results do get modified, and predictions changed. The models are refined, and rerun on faster computers, all the time.

[newyawker99]

9. Hi DemocraticDonkey!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[GreenPartyVoter]

10. Welcome to DU :^)

[BeFree]

11. Climatoligists used to say

Years ago they said we were headed toward a cooling time - toward an ice age. But now all signs have reversed and now they say we are warming.

There is no question that the atmosphere now has increased amounts of man-made pollutants. Most scientists agree that those pollutants will cause changes in the climate.

Most glaciers around the world are receeding. Looks as if we have changed the climate from an ice-age heading to a global warming. Looks that way.