Canadian DUers, what do you expect from today's election?

[PROGRESSIVE1]

Who will be the next Prime Minister and would the NDP and or BQ consider joining the Liberals to keep Harper out of power?

[Screaming Lord Byron]

1. Simple answer. I haven't a bloody clue.

But I will say this. Harper cannot be Prime Minister without a majority. As that is out of reach, Harper can't be Prime Minister.

[Spazito]

2. I think it will be a Liberal minority government...

and we will be back at the polls within a year if not sooner. Many voters will make up their minds once they get into the voting booth CTV was reporting. I think that means voters will vote strategically and, hopefully, many of those on the fence will vote Liberal even if they have to hold their noses to do it.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. Is the BQ a right of center of a left of center party?

[Spazito]

4. It is neither, it is a strictly "provincial" party, it's interest lie...

solely in Quebec interests and they vote based on that rather than left or right issues.

[Minstrel Boy]

5. left of centre

Supports Kyoto and socially progressive issues, opposes Canadian engagement in Star Wars.

Some of its support comes from right-wing sovereigntists, but its platform is social democratic.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

6. Great to hear!

[Spazito]

7. Agree but they will not support the liberals, pre-supposing it is...

a Liberal minority, unless they get something for Quebec out of it. The BQ will vote based on that rather than any philosophical belief.

[iverglas]

10. but that's how all minority govts work here

We don't have "coalition" governments. The party with a plurality -- the most seats, but fewer than a minority -- forms the govt, and the executive (prime minister and cabinet) are drawn from that party.

In an actual coalition, other parties get Cabinet portfolios, for example.

Here, the whole thing just trundles along on a vote-by-vote basis. The party in power has to be sure that whatever legislative initiative it introduces, it will get enough support from some other party, or some members of some other parties, to pass.

If that fails to happen, and if the initiative in question is sufficiently important that a vote against it is considered a non-confidence vote (i.e., in particular, a budget), the govt has to tender its resignation, by convention.

Some other party that thinks it could stay afloat would then have the option of seeking the Governor General's approval for forming a govt.

The BQ will vote in Quebec's interests, but that doesn't mean that it doesn't vote according to philosophical beliefs. While there is certainly a right-wing bent to much of sovereignist politics, Quebec overall is more social-democrat than most of the rest of Canada. The BQ could be expected to vote "left" on national issues, such as participation in the Iraqi adventure, which it opposes, and abolishing the firearms registry (it has said it will not support any party that attempted to do that).


Anyhow, I expect a Liberal minority govt, with the Liberals then having to keep us NDPers sweet.

What would be really fun would be if the Liberals got fewer seats than the Conservatives, but expected to be able to govern with NDP support. Technically, they could then just keep on governing as if there had been no election, without even having to go through the formality of approaching the Governor General to form a new govt. That could go on unless and until a non-confidence vote occurred. It wouldn't likely look very good, but it would save the time and expense of letting the Conservatives get all set up and then voted out as soon as the House sat.

DUers will probably know the outcome before me, although I'd certainly hope that I'm not the only one here who will be toiling away in a polling station on behalf of the local NDP candidate until the votes are counted (or out on the streets pulling the vote until the doors are locked). Anybody else?

[Minstrel Boy]

8. There will be a Liberal minority, and

I don't believe Paul Martin will make an accomodation with the NDP or BQ.

I think he'll try to govern by playing the right and left against each other. There will be occasions when the Conservatives will support the Liberals, and times the NDP and BQ will. If the Liberals don't do anything rash, they could survive like this for a year or so. No party will want an immediate election, so it'll be in everyone's interest to make this work. For a while.

Some expectations for tonight:

The Liberals will do better than recently expected, though much poorer than most presumed when Martin became Prime Minister. A lot of cabinet ministers will be defeated, and Martin's position will be greatly weakened.

The Conservatives will underperform. They're set to lose seats in BC and their breakthrough in Ontario will be supressed by a Liberal recovery here.

The BQ will do well, though it won't be the rout they'd hoped.

The NDP will do very well, though how well depends on how effective Martin's last minute scaremongering has been.

[Spazito]

9. I agree with your analysis

*

[democracy eh]

11. good assessment

Given that a Minority is likely, I find myself already looking ahead to the next election, likely very soon.

Actually there is an interesting article in the Toronto Star today discussing that given the likely makeup of the next parliament, whomever comes in 2nd may be in a better position to regroup and win a majority next time around.

think about how things could change in a year, possibilities:
- the New Conservatives will have to finally have to have a policy convention, will the radicals from the Alliance and the old PC's survive in bed together? is lust for power enough? can Peter McKay make another deal he can immediately break?

- I see the NDP continuing to build credibility and support

- I see, regardless of the minority outcome Lib or Con, that
Canadians, after venting their frustrations on the Lib's for the scandal, and extracting their pound of flesh, get nostalgic for the 'good old days' under the Libs, it has been 10 years of relative prosperity, slow progression, etc... The big thing will be interest rates, if they go up.... we are soooo in debt collectively, mortgages, credit cards, etc... Kind of like waking up the day after a big party, your head hurts, empty bottles everywhere, you look next to you in bed, uhh ohh what did I do, classic buyer's remorse.

- I also keep wondering if we are headed for a shattering of the Liberals, and movement to wards more of a 2 party Center-Left and Right option as in the USA

- will Brian Tobin make his triumphant return from the political wilderness (Report on Business TV) to lead the floundering Libs? go Captain Canada!

[yvr girl]

12. Canadian Election

As a British Columbian I am so excited that I will not turn on my TV at 8:00 pm and hear, "Welcome, BC to the broadcast, CTV is projecting that X party will form the next government." My vote counts this time, and not just in theory.

Who will win? It's going to be a late night for all of you back east. There are a lot of tight 3-way races in BC. Let's face it, the only two men who have a chance of forming the next government are Martin and Harper. Six months ago, I think Martin stood a good chance in BC based on his record as Minister of Finance. The sponsorship scandal has really hurt him here. I think that British Colombians are in a mood to clean house. Look what we did in our last provincial election.

As for the NDP, I think that Layton in the most dynamic leader the party has had in a long time, but I'm afraid that many in BC will view a vote for the NDP as 'wasted' this time around.

[newyawker99]

13. Hi yvr girl!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast: