Will F911 influence the election at all?

[defoliate_bush]

What do you guys think??

[NWHarkness]

1. Yes-It helps motivate the base, and appeals to young voters

At the screening I attended, there were an awful lot of young people, a group that votes in low proportions. If it gets only a few thousand of them into the voting booth, it could make a significant difference.

[unblock]

2. sure. well, it won't convince reich-wingers, but it'll fire up our base!

reich-wingers won't see it, or, if they do, they'll dismiss it as lies, since that's what limbaugh says.

but it will fire up our side, and give us more ammo in debate to win the hearts and minds of the independent and apathetic!

[Lenape85]

3. It could

...but only under the right conditions (ie: if people who see the film are guided towards Kerry in addition to guided towards Bush)

[LTR]

4. After seeing it myself...

...I can't imagine anyone voting for Bush after seeing F9/11.

Unless they were truly evil themselves.

[defoliate_bush]

5. Forgot to post my opinion

After seeing that film, I'm so fired up and emotional. Even if I weren't passionately liberal, it would inspire me to get Bush out of the White House.

[donco6]

6. I think so.

Anger is a good motivator for action. Maybe it won't change anyone's mind, but it just might get people to physically vote, who may not have otherwise.

[Upfront]

7. Yes

It will.

[mzmolly]

8. It's too soon to tell.

:shrug:

[napsi]

9. No

This film will appeal to those of us who agree with Moore or those who hate BushCo. Personally, I think the film was well done but I am afraid it may backfire.

[peacetalksforall]

11. Backfire - name some possibilities

Make too much money?

Break all records?

Find out that the MI mother's son didn't die?

That the arm vessels were made of Hollywood plastic?

Do you have any scenarios for a backfire that seem possible?

I wish that it could backfire the other way - for example, that some smart people who don't have to work or who don't have work could help our legislators read the entire documents - especially on overnight emergencies when the right wing rushes to the printer and forces a vote at 9 am the next morning.

[Skarbrowe]

23. possible backfire

The only possible backfire I can think of is the possiblity of energizing the other side that absolutely loathes MM. Also, the few times I have seen MM on TV he has made comments that he thinks the resident is going down and without actually saying it, implies that his movie is the thing that is going to do it. There might be an awful lot of moderates and conservatives who don't like this "guy" thinking he can bring down a president and they might gather their own get out the vote forces just to get back at MM.

Hopefully, this is just me being totally NOT convinced that Bush won't steal this election. The guy has Cheneyed up everything and I read today he is going up in the polls. All he needs is to be within a few points of Kerry and and the steal is on. Don't forget Georgia in 2002. Democratic Governor and Senator ahead by 9 to 13 points and those lovely little Diebold voting machines gave the victories to two Republicans. If this can't be stopped before November, pollsters keeping Kerry and Bush neck and neck are actually handing it to Bush. In my not so humble opinon. And hoping like hell I'm wrong.

Skarbrowe

[seventhson]

16. There will be some in the opposition whowill be inspired to fight back

harder because of the film's influence.

But overall very few of those who see it could possibly think Bush is worth ANYTHING as a "leader".

The key is to get people to see it. I have encouraged dozens already and I think it will snowball into a very positive impact.

There will be some backlash (but not a backfire at all).

The Bushes will get nastier and more dangerous.

But Americans are often pretty cool and will see through the Bushit.

Kerry will win.

[Jade Fox]

10. Absolutely.....

I'd bet the farm on it. If I had a farm.

[seventhson]

12. No Doubt about it. Here's why:

for us folks at DU there is very little new information (at least info that we have not been exposed to or heard about here) BUT the PRESENTATION was all new.

Those who were angry and unsure of their facts before will be fired up and will have learned many new things to use as ammunition in political discourse over the water cooler. Those who are not political junkies like most of us who see it will start to become political junkies.

I had forgotten, for example, the James Bath tie to the National Guard story (although I knew generally about the saudi/Osama ties of Bath). I can now make that case better and tie it in to shrub's being a deserter as well.

Those who are clueless about politics and maybe on the fence will be knocked for a loop. If they are intelligent they will be outraged. If they are reactionary dimwits they will reject it as all lies (but will at least now know solid facts which may later arouse them to change their fixed views).

rightists will try to defend the indefensible and will know it is a losing battle to try to argue the facts.

Bottom line is there will be a HUGE influence in terms of the significance of this film. I would say a 3-4% shift away from Bush will sway the election completely and additionally people who would vote dem but were too lazy or unmoved to vote before F9-11 will vote Dem BECAUSE they saw the film and were radicalized by it. I think younger voters will see it and will be forever changed by the experience.

The hard core rightists and neoconservative capitalist parasites at the top of the food chain and pile will not change their tunes.

But I think the factor of 5-10% who will swing over to Kerry in large part due to this film will be the deciding factor in 2004.

[SpiralHawk]

25. Megadittoes, 7th Sun

The film raises QUESTIONS big time. I forsee a groundswell that will grow and grow

[seventhson]

33. There cam be no doubt...

that the base will be reinforced and that those who have been sleeping will be slapped to their senses.

Those who are insane and senseless on ther right will not see the movie or will see it and call it lies -- but they are not who we need to win.

The independent voter who is unsure just how bad Bush is or how good Kerry is SHOULD be swayed to conclude Bush is a total idiot slimeball crook and that Kerry is a decent alternative.

Even if it is not so much to vote FOR Kerry as against Bush, people will be inspired to vote to rid the nation of these creeps.

I have never seen such alienation from a President and I thought Nixon and Reagan were bad.

This Presidency is a horrific tragedy and these are some of the most venal human beings to ever hold such power in human history.

If we as a people do not defeat them, then we, too, will be vilified, ridiculed and despised for all time.

[WilliamPitt]

13. Let's break it down

Two facts to begin with:

1. The election in 2000 was separated by about 500,000 votes.

2. 100,000,000 people didn't vote in 2000.

Assume that number remains the same in 2004. That leaves 100,000,000 voters in the electorate. Assume also the closeness of the division between D and R will remain in 2004.

Let's say 20,000,000 people go see F9/11.

Subtract half of that number to represent that shithead half of the electorate which can't seem to summon the strength to pull a lever.

= 10,000,000 people

How many of those 10,000,000 might be swayed to vote against Bush because of F9/11?

Let's say only 10%. Only 10% get their minds changed.

That's a million people over and above the 50 million Gore got last time.

My math is surely flawed, but the point is yes, even a 10% movement from the movie wins the election.

[seventhson]

17. I Agree with the math Will -- a 5-10% bump in November over to Kerry

is HUGE.


AND is a pretty decent estimate.

[shihtzu5]

14. Don't see how it could fail to have some effect

I saw the film with my son and two grandchildren. All of us are planning on seeing it again in the next few days, and all of us are attending our second viewing with our separate friends. (Don't know at this point if these people are registered voters, but I plan to come prepared with voter registration cards).
How could this "ripple effect" fail to have somewhat of an influence?

[TomNickell]

15. Yes. Indirect effects...

It motivates the choir, of course.

More subtly, it helps set the terms of the debate. -All- the media will have seen it. All the politicians. The issues raised are in their heads. They now have to see the facts through MM's lens.

[Joe Fields]

18. Anything is possible, but I highly doubt it.

Moore is only preaching to the choir.

[tavalon]

21. That's an awfully big choir, Joe

This is the number one film in the US right now. It is selling out in the Red States. While it could be argued that we raving liberals have managed these kind of box office numbers by ourselves, it doesn't seem likely.

[BigDaddyLove]

28. Why not?.......

So far only 3 million people have gone to see the film, I doubt anyone BUT 'raving liberals' are seeing it.

Gore got 50 million votes in 2000....it is safe to assume that 99-100% of the people who went to see F911 to date voted for Gore (or perhaps Nader-but certainly not Bush), in that respect, those people can be referred to fittingly as The Choir.

For this film to affect real change, many, many more people need to see it, more than just a small percentage of those would be voting against Bush regardless of what Michael Moore does.

[Cheswick2.0]

31. then you will be glad to know that I took two republicans with me sunday

and neither of them will be voting for bush.

[BigDaddyLove]

32. Yes, I am glad to know that........

hopefully more will do what you did.

I'm taking my Mother next Tuesday....she's a fence-sitter.

[Cheswick2.0]

30. well I am sure that your opinion will be made clear

as the great unmasking. Can't come soon enough.

[cthrumatrix]

19. the genie is out of the bottle.... for many it will change thier mind...

maybe even the media will be forced to abandon ship before to long.

[cally]

20. Yes

It motivates the base. Since the election may be close, whichever side has motivated voters will win. This will bring folks to the voting booth.

[Cpt Spaulding]

22. More so than Kerry's pathetic campaign

Pretty damn sad that a movie is more critical than the so called "opposition."

[TomNickell]

24. Give John a break....

The Bush admin is pretty much collapsing into a heap.

Not much John can do but stay out of the way.

[TexasSissy]

26. A bit. But since this election will be close, that might be enough.

I hope.

But it will have no effect on Repubs who have already decided to vote for Bush (unbelievable).

It's mainly rallying the base. The Repubs are making a stink over nothing, I think.

But the Carlyle Group buying movie theaters is VERY telling (and VERY scary....another encroachment into the public's ability to get access to an opposing point of view....Stalinistic).

[sffreeways]

27. Yes

seems that there are many average Americans that are not political going to see this film and having the bottom fall out on all of their assumptions about Bush and this war.

[Cheswick2.0]

29. big time

yes of course it will. Even if it does nothing more than energise the base to come out and vote.

Now go register some single female voters.

[OpSomBlood]

34. The DVD release will have a lot of impact.

It looks like it will be around October.

Here's to hoping that it has a lot of extras.

[THUNDER HANDS]

35. probably not

It depends on whether there's another terrorist attack or not.

THAT will determine the next election.