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The lines are now drawn, and this is pretty much what it all boils down to: Can George W. Bush keep the members of the Interim Government alive until November 3rd?
The forces at work here:
- By singling The Interim Government out as the representatives of the "New Iraq," Bush has provided the insurgency with not only interesting targets, but a goal that will symbolize the success or failure of their rebellion.
- If Bush can manage to somehow keep these poor people alive, he will be able to declare that the move to democracy in Iraq a success, and that the war truly was fought for good and just reasons.
- If the insurgents manage to kill off several of the key members of this Interim Govt, the world will perceive that Bush has failed in his efforts to bring democracy to a troubled land.
In other words, the high stakes gamble of the Bush administration is to establish a totem government, then use the 140,000 American troops in Iraq to keep the members of this government alive against the wishes of a good number of the people they are supposed to be governing.
As is almost always the case when powerful superpowers involve themselves in the affairs of impoverished third world countries, the real concern is with the political perceptions and opinions of those living within the superpower itself. What actually happens to the supposedly liberated third world country is only a small and largely irrelevant sideshow.
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