Smell toast? TIA-adjusted polls project a Kerry 53-47 win.

[TruthIsAll]

The Edwards factor is kicking in. Don't believe the pundits.
The numbers predict a near-landslide. I smell toast burning.

Kerry has led by 1-2% every month since Jan. Now, Kerry is
leading by an average of 4%.

Projecting a normal challenger pickup of undecided votes,
Kerry will win by 53-47. 

Adjust the Kerry numbers for the projected vote: 
Assume X= 70% of undecided/Nader voters go to Kerry.			
Historically, the Challenger received 60-80% of the undecided
vote.							
The simple projection formula for Kerry:
Adj. Kerry = Kerry +X*(100-Kerry-Bush)							
		
13 -POLL AVERAGE			Projected/Adjusted	
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff		Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	40.8	51.6	-10.8		46.1	53.9	-7.7
Feb	47.4	46.0	1.4		52.0	48.0	4.1
Mar	47.4	44.7	2.6		52.9	47.1	5.8
Apr	46.5	45.3	1.2		52.2	47.8	4.5
May	46.5	44.4	2.1		52.9	47.1	5.7
June	46.9	45.6	1.3		52.1	47.9	4.3
July	49.3	45.3	4.0		53.1	46.9	6.1

The 13 polls in my database do not include Rasmussen. 
Rasmussen today confirmed the July average. He has Kerry ahead
49%-45%.

These are the only July polls out:
... Kerry Bush
AP 45 49 < exclude this and Kerry is up 50.2-44.6
Time 49 45
Zogby 48 46
CBS 49 44
Newsweek 51 45
NBC 54 43

[rfranklin]

1. DIEBOLD: Time to re-program those voting machines!

But I don't think anyone's gonna believe it this time.

[treepig]

9. from the title of this thread

it appears as though TIA envisions him/herself as having diebold-type powers.

[TruthIsAll]

11. Very cute. But let's see you find a flaw in my analysis.

If anything, I am being conservative. I expect more and more Repukes to move away from the chimp.

Oh, and I'm a guy. Not that it makes a difference as far as the forecast is concerned.

Let's see your work...

[treepig]

12. stay calm, it was just a joke

yeah, i know - not that funny - but just wanted to slyly allude to the fact that there might be more powerful forces than you out there "adjusting" polls and votes.

[Sweetpea]

17. This time we may end up with rioting across america if it doesn't

look right.

[dbt]

2. Damn, I LOVE the smell of TOAST in the morning!

BURNT toast. Charcoal-black, steaming-like-a-pile-of-dogshit-in-the-July-sun TOAST. Eat my shorts, Condo Lizard Reisssssssssssss! Unstick THIS!

:evilgrin:
dbt

[xray s]

3. Thanks for your ananlysis TIA

I always look forward to your looking at your numbers :hi:

[leftist.]

18. TIA > All!!!

TIA posts always promise fun!

thanks for your work TIA!

... paris

[RoadRunner]

4. If you project that trend until Nov using regression analysis,

Kerry wins by about 7%, very close to your prediction. Looking good!

[59millionmorons]

5. Thanks TIA

I love that you put this together for us.

[TexasSissy]

6. This is outstanding news (I say cautiously). We MUST win.

What will happen if we don't? I shudder to think of it.

[Longhorn]

Question, TIA

But first, thanks! I, too, enjoy reading your analysis!

I can't bring myself to peruse the RW crap -- there's enough out there to upset me without making it worse -- but I'm curious if you come across similar RW attempts at poll analysis -- and what basis do they use to predict a Bush* victory?

For example, you're taking the actual poll averages and using historical precedents of percentages applied to the Nader and undecided votes. How do the RW polls claim to back up a Bush* landslide? Thanks!

[TruthIsAll]

8. I have not seen RW predictions of a landslide. They say it will be "Close"

Bushit!

If anything, Kerry is further ahead than these polls suggest.

The mediawhores want it close so they can Diebold Kerry.

[catmandu57]

7. The chimp* has nothing to run on

He has done absolutely nothing domestically, and what he has done has either been a complete fuckup or benefited the wealthy. Last week they were comparing Kerry and the chimp's* health plan on cbs news, I was screaming at the tv what plan??? He's had three and a half years to put in a health plan the last year and a half with an all reptile govt.
He has been exposed for the moronic evil that he is, he's toast.

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

10. The "New Voter" Wild Card

In Hamilton County, OH (Cincinnati Metro) the Board of Election reports 35,000 new voters since January 1st -- largely the work of ACT and Moveon and others. I've been told that these groups have registered so many voters in Columbus that they're moving to the outlying suburbs because there's essentially very few voters left who haven't been registered.

The "wild card" is whether these newly-registered voters will get out to the polls on November 2nd. So if you want to see John Kerry (and a host of other Democrats) elected this year -- tell your boss that you're taking vacation on November 1st and 2nd. Volunteer to work 48 hours straight at phone banks, street corner visibility, poll watching, and driving people to the polls.

We've got 'em registered. Now we have to get their votes.

[tom_paine]

14. Already done. You are correct, sir.

:toast: :toast:

[Poiuyt]

16. Very good news

Especially in Ohio.

I heard on analyst say that he expected a big Kerry win based on the fact that Bush's approval rating were below 50% and also based on the voter turnouts from the primaries. The Democratic turnout was extremely high, showing a lot of enthusiasm and energy from the base, while the Republican turnout was very low (lower than for other incumbents running for re-election).

[tom_paine]

13. Nice analysis, but it doesn't count Manual & Electronic Disenfranhcisement

Tens of thousands of Bushevik vacation home double-voters, perhaps more. The soft fraud of stacking minority precincts with old machines. Diebold & ES&S (goodbye Georgia and Florida). Using taxpayer money to put out partisan Bushevik absentee ballot solicitations (wasn't that illegal in the Old Republic?) as Prince Jeb did in Florida. Many others, and I'll bet a few we don't know about.

I estimate we are going to start 10% behind with all of it. Thus the usual Bush AP Cunter-Pravda smokescreen to innoculate everybody with the idea that Bunnypants* could "upset".

Fuck AP. Parts of it are still doing som honest jounrlaism, but it has a big nest of Mockingbirds and Loyalists. And it contains the Phony Exit Poll Division.

How do we fix it?

The Random Voting Machine Lottery Amendment

Amendment XXVIII: There will be a completely random and statewide lottery, witnessed,tranparent and inspectable, for the distribution of voting machines for the next year.

A start, perhaps...

[Lex]

15. kicking this!

:kick:

[TruthIsAll]

19. For 60 Minutes viewers: a prologue

tia