8/1: KERRY WIN PROBABILITY: 96.0% ; VOTE: 52.77% ; EV:324

[TruthIsAll]

								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE FORECAST								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
Kerry:	52.77							
Bush:	47.23							
Spread:	5.54							
								
Kerry:	96.0%	win probability (national and state average).		
				
NATIONAL FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY				
16-Polls	Latest%	Proj%		
Kerry:	48.13	52.98		
Bush:	44.94	47.02		
Spread:	3.19	5.96		
				
Kerry:	95.4%	win probability (at least 50% of the popular
vote).		
				
				
STATE FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY SIMULATION				
Forecast  vote %       EV          				
Kerry:	52.56	324		
Bush:	47.44	214		
Spread:	5.11	110		
						
Kerry:	967	of 1000 simulation trial runs, 				
or a	96.7%	win probability (at least 270 electoral votes).				
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.63%	of the vote.				
Wins:	88.8%	of the trials. 				
Avg:	306	electoral votes.				
Max:	386	electoral votes.				
						
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.56%	of the vote.	
Wins:	96.7%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	324	electoral votes.	
Max:	404	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	53.48%	of the vote.	
Wins:	99.6%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	340	electoral votes.	
Max:	434	electoral votes.										
												
												


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS												
(in millions of votes)												
Dem	138.780	52.61%										
Rep	125.026	47.39%										

												

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.70	48	47	49	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	44

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL FORECAST METHODOLOGY												
												
Data source is PollingReport.com    												
Monthly polling data from: 												
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, NBC, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
						
Kerry projection is based on current average of ten
polls						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
						
						
	10 Poll Avg Trend			Projection		
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	42.5	50.2	-11.5	46.5	53.5	-7.0
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.1	44.4	3.8	53.4	46.6	6.8
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	47.1	44.2	2.9	53.2	46.8	6.4
June	47.1	45.0	2.1	52.6	47.4	5.3
July	49.0	44.6	4.4	53.5	46.5	7.0
													
													
KERRY NATIONAL FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY													
Based on latest 16 national polls:													
Actual	48.13%	Latest poll average (mean)											
+Alloc.	4.86%	70% undecided/other to Kerry 											
= Proj.	52.98%	Projected Kerry %											
													
Win Prob	95.36%	>50%											
													
 -------	Actual	Actual	Kerry%	Kerry undecided/other 									
 -------	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%					
													
TIME	50.0	45.0	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5					
FOX	45.0	44.0	50.6	50.5	51.6	52.7	53.8	54.9					
CNN	49.0	47.0	51.0	51.0	51.4	51.8	52.2	52.6					
LAT	48.0	46.0	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4		
PEW	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0		
										
IBD	44.0	41.0	51.8	51.5	53.0	54.5	56.0	57.5		
CBS	49.0	44.0	52.7	52.5	53.2	53.9	54.6	55.3		
DEMC	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7		
ABC	48.0	49.0	49.5	49.5	49.8	50.1	50.4	50.7		
NWK	52.0	44.0	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6		
										
ZOGBY	48.0	43.0	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1		
AP	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4		
NBC1	45.0	47.0	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2		
NBC2	54.0	43.0	55.7	55.5	55.8	56.1	56.4	56.7		
ARG	49.0	45.0	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4		
QPAC	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9		
										
Mean	48.13	44.94	51.70	51.59	52.29	52.98	53.68	54.37		
Std	2.80	2.14	1.91	1.83	1.77	1.77	1.84	1.96		
Stdm	0.70	0.53	0.48	0.46	0.44	0.44	0.46	0.49		
										
Before Stdm Adjustment (see below):										
Max	53.62	49.12	55.44	55.18	55.76	56.46	57.28	58.22		
Min	42.63	40.75	47.95	48.01	48.82	49.50	50.07	50.52		
x	49.12	49.12	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00		
Prob >
x	36.10%	2.50%	81.26%	80.80%	90.18%	95.36%	97.70%	98.69%		
										
Adjusted Standard Error of the Mean (Stdm):										
										
95% Confidence Limits										
Range	Kerry	Bush								
Max	49.50	45.98								
Min	46.75	43.89								
x	45.98	45.98							
Prob > x	99.89%	2.50%							
									
Probability:									
95.00%	Each within Max-Min Range								
99.89%	Kerry exceeds Bush Max								
2.50%	Bush exceeds his Max								
									
99% Confidence Limits									
Range	Kerry	Bush							
Max	49.93	46.31							
Min	46.32	43.56							
x	46.31	46.31							
Prob > x	99.51%	0.49%							
									
Probability:									
99.00%	Each within Max-Min Range							
99.51%	Kerry exceeds Bush Max							
0.49%	Bush exceeds his Max							
								
								
Notes:								
Std = Standard Deviation (variability)								
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 								
Stdm = Std / sqrt(n) = Std / sqrt(16) = Std/4								
								
95% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96 * Stdm								
								
99% Confidence Limits formula:								
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58 * Stdm								
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58 * Stdm								
								
Notes:								
NBC1 - Princeton Associates								
NBC2 - Wall Street Journal								
CNN - Gallup								
WP - ABC								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Percent Projections								
State vote: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote: Accumulated state projected votes weighted by
ratio of state/national votes for last three
elections.								
Probability of state win: based on projected vote %.								


Most Likely Case													
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry													
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV										
Kerry	96.7%	52.6%	324										
Bush	3.3%	47.4%	214										

Dem Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trial runs 1-10 of 1000									
-------	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.56%	96.7%	355	348	352	328	335	324	291	356	342	312
													
AL	44.8	41.0	1.2										
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10	10	10	10	10		10	10		10
AR	55.2	50.6	56.0		6	6	6		6				
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1	9		9			9		9	9	9
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3		3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	50.1	51.0	27	27	27	27	27		27	27	27	
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1		15								
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3										
													
IA	51.8	51.6	65.5	7		7	7	7	7		7	7	
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1				8	8					8
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4	4	4		4		4	4	4	4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	66.7	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	55.1	89.9	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	17	
MN	55.7	51.2	61.8	10	10	10	10		10		10	10	
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8	11	11	11			11			11	11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.9	68.3	5		5	5	5	5		5	5	
NH	51.7	54.7	88.0	4	4		4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	53.9	83.5	15	15	15		15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	56.2	93.9	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6					15	15			15	
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	50.5	55.0		20		20			20	20		20
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	55.5	91.5	7	7	7		7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.1	84.7	21	21	21	21	21	21		21	21	21
RI	65.6	64.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6			8	8			8			
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7								3		
TN	50.5	51.8	67.4	11		11	11	11			11	11	11
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4	13					13		13		13
WA	55.9	54.8	88.5	11	11	11	11	11	11	11		11	11
WV	54.0	53.3	79.5	5	5	5	5	5	5		5		
WI	52.7	52.8	75.8	10	10	10		10	10	10	10	10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.56%	96.7%	355	348	352	328	335	324	291	356	342	312

[Ediacara]

1. Add Kentucky and Louisiana

And you've recreated the 1996 map exactly..... I actually think Louisiana is probably in play, as are Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, and Montana, but that's just me....

[BeatleBoot]

2. You assume

The assumption of 70% undecided to Kerry.

Does that mean that 7 out of 10 undecideds wil vote for him?

If so, I think that's high, but you know more about this stuff than I do.

What happens when you run your model at 40% undecideds to Kerry

[TruthIsAll]

3. Kerry will get at least 60% conservatively and 70% most likely.

Assume he is ahead 48 - 45 now, with 7% other/undecided.

If you want to assume he gets 40% (way too low), then he gets 2.8 out of the 7.

He ends up with 50.8 = 48 +2.8

He still wins.

[BeatleBoot]

4. That's Great News!

[sonias]

5. Great work TruthIsAll!

Keep us posted. That's great news. I appreciate your analysis work.

Sonia