AOL Straw poll: Kerry 52.57% , TIA FORECAST SIMULATION: 52.56%

[TruthIsAll]

CLOSE ENOUGH FOR YOU?

Makes sense. Confirmed by other polls. I believe it. My models
say the same thing. 

The only difference: I include Nader's 1.80%  in Bush's total
(47.44%). That's why he wins more states and EV's in my model.


Cheney CNN! 

Kerry is a winner. 

Bush is TOAST.

http://www.electionguide04.com/straw_poll.adp

AOL Poll 			
Kerry	91,547	52.57%	369
Bush	79,450	45.63%	169
Nader	3,133	1.80%	

Total	174,130	votes	

Kerry has NE,KS,CO which will go to Bush (20 EV)	
Bush has NC,WV,TN which will go to Kerry (31 EV)	

.................................

TRUTH IS ALL

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x2129470			
			
STATE FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY SIMULATION			
Forecast  vote % EV          			
Kerry:	52.56	324	
Bush:	47.44	214	
Spread:	5.11	110	
			
Kerry:	967	of 1000 simulation trial runs, 	
or a	96.7%	win probability (at least 270 electoral votes).	
			

[Old and In the Way]

1. Glad we have our resident poll analysis on the job.....

I'll be looking for your updates over the coming days.

[BeatleBoot]

2. Did You Get Out To See The Sunlight Today?

Or have you been crunchin' numbers?

LOL!!!

Myself, I barely got out today - only a few hours...

Thanks for the analysis!

:+