A study in polling bias: 10 polls vs. AP, FOX, CNN/Gallup

[TruthIsAll]

10-POLLS: IBD,ABC, NWK, ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME			
vs. FOX, AP, CNN/Gallup

.........10 polls.............FOX, AP, CNN	
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	45.5	46.5	-1.0
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	46.3	44.3	2.0
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	45.3	44.0	1.3
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	44.0	44.0	0.0
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	45.0	47.0	-2.0
July	48.80	44.60	4.20	45.7	46.0	-0.3

AVG	47.76	44.75	3.01	45.31	45.31	0.00

In July, the 10 polls average a 4.20% Kerry lead.
FOX, AP, CNN/Gallup give Bush a  +0.3% lead.

Since Feb., the 10 polls average a 3.01% Kerry lead.
FOX, AP, CNN/Gallup have it dead even.

[Endangered Specie]

1. makes you think eh?

[villager]

2. discussion of phone polling bias

earlier this eve in GD, too:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=104&topic_id=2133013&mesg_id=2133013

[PROGRESSIVE1]

3. ...

[iamtechus]

4. Formatting tabular data

        _______10 polls_____       FOX, AP, CNN	
Month	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Feb	48.00	45.43	2.57	45.5	46.5	-1.0
Mar	48.13	44.38	3.75	46.3	44.3	2.0
Apr	47.38	44.88	2.50	45.3	44.0	1.3
May	47.11	44.22	2.89	44.0	44.0	0.0
June	47.13	45.00	2.13	45.0	47.0	-2.0
July	48.80	44.60	4.20	45.7	46.0	-0.3

AVG	47.76	44.75	3.01	45.31	45.31	0.00

Use <PRE> and </PRE>

[KharmaTrain]

5. This All Falls in The MOE so it's a tie no matter how you look at it

Also, we get no idea of the sample number, where those calls are made, what the EXACT question asked is and how this poll is weighted.

That's the key. Polls are almost all weighted to prevent more Repugnicans over Democrats or women over men or whatever the study criteria is. The weighting formulas are like trying to find out what ingredient 7x is in Coke...guarded like a nuclear secret.

If you crack the methodology on how these polls are conducted, then interpreted you'd be even more suprised than what your putting out there. You've just taken the finished product, the thing is to force them to also share the raw data to show poll validty.

[TruthIsAll]

8. An average of 10 polls has a lower MoE than the individual polls.

The universe is approximately 1000 respondents.

The deviations in the average polling numbers between the two groups are consistent month to month.

Each individual poll has an approximate 3.5 MoE. The "poll of polls" average MoE is around 1.7. So the difference between the two groups is significant.

The methodology of each of the three polls which are biased for Bush does not matter. What matters is that they ARE biased - and FOX, CNN and AP know it.

And they will keep Bush's numbers artificially high right up to the election.

[Tight_rope]

6. Interesting!

[Dover]

7. It's time for an escalation in the POLL WARS...

competing for your perceptions. Just disregard polls. They are easily manipulated and WILL vie for control.