Bush was up 17 points on Gore after the 2000 RNC convention!

[trumad]

17 percentage points!

A couple of things about this. Gore was down 17 points to Bush after the RNC convention and still managed to beat Dubya by 500,000 votes!

SO! For those who say that Gore ran a bad campaign, You're idiots!

Second point. There is a very good chance after the 2004 RNC convention that both candidates will be tied in the polls. Of course Gallup might say Bush is up by 50 points! :eyes:

This is very good news folks. Kerry will not be starting from a deficit like Gore did and Kerry can dig deep into that vast reservoir of Independent and Undecided voters. Incumbents normally don't do that well with Undecideds and Undecideds in this election clearly do not like George Dubya Bush. So that means that Dubya's (as Carol Lin likes to say) "Shot his Wad"! He's done. If the poll numbers are even after the conventions, Bush is toast.

[DU9598]

1. Only concerns

Is that Gore was benefitting from the power of the incumbancy and Bu*h was the challenger. This time, Kerry is the challenger and the incumbant can run around with the bully pulpit and issue terror warnings, etc.

Overall, still not that nervous - I am anxious for November, but I trust Kerry and Edwards. I think Kerry will put this away late and the last week in October we will be mostly worried about taking back the House and Senate. At least that is my hope.

[trumad]

3. The power of the incumbancy was Lewinsky

[TreasonousBastard]

2. Personally, I think Kerry's a better candidate than Gore...

and the public just has to get to know him. At least he's a much smarter politician.

Gore v. Bush wasn't much of a contest, with so few people caring whether or not there was much of a difference between the two. This year is different.

We've got the incumbant disadvantage, but what the hell-- Clinton had that disadvantage and look what he did. Kerry doesn't have the charisma, but he's a still a fresh face to many.

We're energized and unified. They are falling apart. We're running on issues and character. They can't keep track of their lies.

And we have the hamster story.

It ain't gonna be easy, it never is, but I think we could get a lot of crossover votes and wipe the floor with Shrub's ass.

[WI_DEM]

4. believe it or not, Gore got a big bounce with the Lieberman selection

and his own convention. I think the polls will be close and Bush may even have a small lead after his own convention. There is more room for Bush to improve, imo, than for Kerry to have made a big bounce. But it will be very even until the last weekend, imo, when many people will desert Bush--like it was in 1980.