Why the ABC News Washington Post poll will not show a bounce ....

[annxburns]

Okay, I am going to go out on a limb here. But I want to circumvent some of the angst I saw from the Gallup Poll.

I have a background in statistics. The reason you are seeing no bounce in some of these polls is because Kerry is already in a fantastic position. No challenger in history has been tied or slightly ahead of an incumbent President at this point and lost.

The reason Clinton, Gore, etc got a good bounce is because they HAD GROUND TO MAKE UP DURING THE CONVENTION. Kerry did not. The democratic are already in his camp. The only thing Kerry could do is appeal to republicans and hardened undecideds. The republicans will not switch till the last minute and the hardened undecideds will not make up their minds to the last minute.

Right now the undecided are leaning toward change. That is a good thing. Remember there were a ton of undecideds in 2000 - and they almost all went to Gore. Check the right track/wrong track number and this will tell you how it will break. Right now, it favors Kerry by a wide margin.

So please, RELAX about the polls.

[seafan]

1. Agree with you.

Part of the inevitable spin by the repubs is to manufacture a high # for Kerry's *expected bounce* post-convention, because it will appeal to the sheep who need to bleat out this chorus that "SEE??? 5%???? NO bounce...nah nah nah nah nah!"

It's sad that there are people like this who allow the likes of the extreme right wing screamers to do their thinking for them.


You are absolutely right! Kerry already commanded from a VERY GOOD position even before his acceptance speech. Now he is going in for the final blow.

[lancdem]

2. Excellent points

although I think the ABC poll might still be good news. The convention helped raise Kerry's stature and made him a more serious alternative to swing voters with doubts about Bush.