Its hard to get a major bounce when your already in the lead.
Its just a steady surge for Kerry. The sky's the limit.
And Bush is TOAST!
Note: All averages are calculated from Feb. to the present.
THE GOOD GUYS:
IBD,ABC, NWK, ARG,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME
.....Kerry Bush Diff
Feb 48.00 45.43 2.57
Mar 48.57 44.00 4.57
Apr 47.38 44.88 2.50
May 47.75 44.00 3.75
June 47.14 44.71 2.43
July 48.11 45.00 3.11
Aug 49.60 44.00 5.60 <<< see the bounce, Wolf?
AVG 48.08 44.57 3.51 (from Feb.-Aug.)
THE BAD GUYS:
Average of FOX, AP,CNN, NBC
.... Kerry Bush Diff
Feb 45.50 48.00 -2.50
Mar 46.00 45.00 1.00 < only month Kerry leads
Apr 44.00 46.33 -2.33
May 44.00 45.25 -1.25
Jun 44.67 47.33 -2.67
Jul 46.00 46.25 -0.25
Aug 47.00 50.00 -3.00 <<< No Kerry gain? Bushit!
AVG 45.31 46.88 -1.57
THE GOOD:
Average from Feb.
Poll Kerry Bush Diff
IBD 43.50 42.83 0.67
ABC 50.29 45.86 4.43 <surprise leader
NWK 49.00 44.60 4.40
ARG 48.67 44.67 4.00
CBS 47.86 43.43 4.43
PEW 47.33 45.67 1.67
LAT 49.33 45.33 4.00
ZOGBY 46.83 43.50 3.33
TIME 49.67 47.00 2.67
AVG 48.05 44.77 3.25 << Kerry average lead since Feb.
THE BAD:
Poll Kerry Bush Diff
CNN 48.57 48.00 0.57
AP 44.25 46.50 -2.25
FOX 42.83 44.50 -1.67
NBC 43.50 46.00 -2.50
AVG 44.79 46.25 -1.46 <<< BushCo lead since Feb.
Right.
THE DETAILS:
.....Kerry Bush Diff
IBD (trying hard not to appear biased, unlike their
editorials)
Jan
Feb 44 41 3
Mar 45 43 2
Apr 40 44 -4
May 43 42 1
June 43 44 -1
July 46 43 3
AVG 43.50 42.83 0.67
ABC
Feb 52 43 9
Mar 53 44 9
Apr 48 49 -1
May 49 47 2
June 53 45 8
July 47 49 -2
Aug 50 44 6 (See the bounce, Wolf?)
AVG 50.29 45.86 4.43
AP (UGLY. Kerry never in the lead, not once)
Jan 37 54 -17
Feb
Mar 45 46 -1
Apr 44 45 -1
May 43 46 -3
June
July 45 49 -4
AVG 44.25 46.50 -2.25
NWK (the Kerry bouncers)
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 50 45 5
Mar 48 45 3
Apr 50 43 7
May 46 45 1
June
July 51 45 6
Aug 52 44 8 (See the bounce, Wolf?)
AVG 49.00 44.60 4.40
ARG (steady as a rock)
Jan 47 46 1
Feb 48 46 2
Mar 50 43 7
Apr 50 44 6
May 47 44 3
June 48 46 2
July 49 45 4
Aug 49 46 3
AVG 48.67 44.67 4.00
NBC (THE UGLY. Kerry never in the lead. Tweety, you there?)
Jan 35 54 -19
Feb
Mar 43 46 -3
Apr
May 42 46 -4
June 44 45 -1
July 45 47 -2
AVG 43.50 46.00 -2.50
FOX (Kerry leads in July only, trying to keep Bush close)
Jan 32 54 -22
Feb 43 47 -4
Mar 44 44 0
Apr 42 43 -1
May 42 42 0
June 42 48 -6
July 44 43 1
AVG 42.83 44.50 -1.67
CBS (Our friends at 60 Minutes keeping 'em honest)
Jan 48 43 5
Feb 47 46 1
Mar 48 43 5
Apr 48 43 5
May 49 41 8
June 45 44 1
July 49 44 5
Aug 49 43 6 (See the bounce, Wolf?)
AVG 47.86 43.43 4.43
CNN (BAD. Outliars, volatile, can't trust 'em. Sorry,
Wolfie)
Jan 43 55 -12
Feb 48 49 -1
Mar 52 44 8
Apr 46 51 -5
May 49 47 2
June 48 49 -1
July 50 46 4
Aug 47 50 -3 (Yeah. Right.)
AVG 48.57 48.00 1.57
PEW
Jan 41 52 -11
Feb 47 47 0
Mar 48 44 4
Apr 47 46 1
May 50 45 5
June 46 48 -2
July 46 44 2
AVG 47.33 45.67 1.67
LA Times
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr 49 46 3
May
June 51 44 7
July 48 46 2
AVG 49.33 45.33 4.00
ZOGBY (steady as a rock)
Jan
Feb
Mar 48 46 2
Apr 47 44 3
May 47 42 5
June 44 42 2
July 47 44 3
Aug 48 43 5 (A Professional - there are a few)
AVG 46.83 43.50 3.33
TIME
Jan 43 54 -11
Feb 48 50 -2
Mar
Apr
May 51 46 5
June
July 50 45 5
AVG 49.67 47.00 2.67