Kerry National Poll Win Prob 96.6%; State Poll ( EV) Win Prob 96.8%

[TruthIsAll]

The probabilities match within 0.2%.

The national votes are close, too:

Kerry gets 52.88% of the vote in the National Polling  model.
There is no EV projection in the National model.

Kerry gets 52.59% of the vote in the State Polling model.

I just updated the National model to get a more accurate win
probability calculation based on the LATEST 15 National Polls.
I get this data from pollingreport.com.

There is a 96.6% probability that Kerry will win the popular
vote. This is real close (within 0.2%) to the State Polls EV
Simulation Model. This assumes Kerry will get 70% of the
undecided/other vote.

The State Polling EV model runs 1000 simulated elections, for
three different scenario assumptions: Kerry gets 60%, 70%, 80%
of the undecided/other vote.

Fot the 70% scenario, Kerry won 968 of the 1000 trials (in
which he received at least 270 EV), so he has a 96.8%
probability of winning, based on the LATEST state polls from
electoral-vote.com. 

Two independent models (national poll data vs. state poll
data) give the same result.

Don't believe the media spin; Kerry is in. 
Bounce THAT, Wolf Blitzer and the rest of you mediawhores.
Bush is toast.								


.................................................................
								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								

								
COMBINED NATIONAL AND STATE FORECAST								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry														
Kerry:52.74
Bush:47.26
Spread:5.47							
								
NATIONAL FORECAST / WIN PROBABILITY						
15polls	Latest	Proj.				
Kerry:	47.93	52.88				
Bush:	      45.00	47.12				
Spread:	2.93	5.76				
						
Kerry: 96.6% probability of a minimum 50% of the popular
vote.				
						
						
STATE FORECAST SIMULATION / WIN PROBABILITY						
Forecast%   EV          						
Kerry:52.59	324				
Bush:	47.41	214				
Spread:5.19	109				
						
Kerry:96.8%	probability of at least 270 electoral votes,			
based on winning	968 of 1000 election trial simulations. 			
						
						
ELECTORAL VOTE WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.72%	of the vote.				
Wins:	92.7%	of the trials. 				
Avg:	310	electoral votes.				
Max:	401	electoral votes.				
						
						
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 						
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.59%	of the vote.	
Wins:	96.8%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	324	electoral votes.	
Max:	415	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	53.46%	of the vote.	
Wins:	99.3%	of the trials. 	
Avg:	338	electoral votes.	
Max:	424	electoral votes.	
			
												


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS												
(in millions of votes)												
Dem	138.78	52.61%										
Rep	125.03	47.39%										

												

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.10	48	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	47.20	45	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	44

												
												
												
												
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE TREND												
Based on latest national polls from:												
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME												
Data source: PollingReport.com    												
												
												
Kerry projection is the current average of these polls						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
	Avg Poll Trend		Projection			
	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.0	49.4	-12.7	46.4	53.6	-7.1
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.6	44.0	4.6	53.8	46.2	7.5
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	47.8	44.0	3.8	53.5	46.5	7.1
June	47.1	44.7	2.4	52.8	47.2	5.7
July	48.1	45.0	3.1	52.9	47.1	5.9
Aug	50.0	44.2	5.8	54.1	45.9	8.1
						
KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES 						
Uses latest national poll (15) data						
Avg 	47.93%	 Latest 15 poll average (mean)											
+Alloc.	4.95%	+ 70% undecided/other 											
= Proj.	52.88%	 = Projected Kerry %											
													
Prob: 	96.60%	> 50% of popular vote											
													
-------	Date			Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 								
-------	(mdd)	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%				
													
TIME	722	50.0	45.0	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5				
FOX	721	44.0	43.0	50.6	50.5	51.8	53.1	54.4	55.7				
CNN/GAL	801	47.0	50.0	48.5	48.5	48.8	49.1	49.4	49.7				
LAT	721	48.0	46.0	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4				
PEW	718	46.0	44.0	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0				
													
IBD	724	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9				
CBS	730	49.0	43.0	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	713	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52.0	45.0	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52.0	44.0	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48.0	43.0	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	707	45.0	49.0	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4
NBC/WSJ	721	45.0	47.0	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49.0	45.0	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46.0	43.0	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
									
									
Mean		47.93	45.00	51.58	51.47	52.17	52.88	53.59	54.29

95% Confidence Interval									
Std		2.69	2.20	54.92	1.85	1.81	1.83	1.91	2.04
										
Max		51.33	48.29	54.68	54.56	55.27	55.97	56.68	57.38	
Min		44.54	41.71	48.48	48.37	49.08	49.79	50.50	51.21	
x		48.29	48.29	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	
										
Prob>x		58.10	97.50	15.90	82.33	91.56	96.60	98.85	99.68	
										
										
99% Confidence Interval										
High		52.40	49.33	55.66						
Low		43.47	40.67	47.50						
x		49.33	49.33	50.00						
Prob>x		78.96	99.51	15.90						
										
										
Probability:										
99.0%	Each within Max-Min Range								
99.5%	Kerry exceeds Bush Max								
15.9%	Bush exceeds his Max								
									
Notes:									
Std = Standard Deviation (variability)									
Stdm = Standard Error of the Mean 									
									
95% Confidence Limits formula:									
Upper Limit = Mean + 1.96 * Stdm									
Lower Limit = Mean - 1.96 * Stdm									
									
99% Confidence Limits formula:									
Upper Limit = Mean + 2.58 * Stdm									
Lower Limit = Mean - 2.58 * Stdm									
									
								
								
								
								
								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Percent Projections								
State vote: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote: Accumulated state projected votes weighted by
ratio of state/national votes for last three
elections.								
Probability of state win: based on projected vote %.								


Most Likely Case								
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry								
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV										
Kerry	96.8%	52.6%	324										
Bush	3.2%	47.4%	214										

Dem Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV Trial runs 1-10 of 1000									
-------	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.59%	96.8%	330	298	339	350	333	384	289	379	265	288
													
AL	44.8	41.0	1.2										
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	53.9	83.5	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
AR	55.2	50.2	52.0		6			6		6	6		6
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1			9	9	9		9	9	9	
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	90.4	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	52.1	70.0	27		27	27	27	27		27		
													
GA	47.6	45.7	14.1									15	
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	60.0	99.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3	11									
													
IA	51.8	52.8	75.8	7	7	7	7		7		7	7	7
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1		8	8	8		8		8	8	
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7	4		4	4	4	4	4	4		4
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10		10
MA	65.3	65.8	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	54.1	84.7	17	17	17	17	17	17		17		17
MN	55.7	54.8	88.5	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8			11	11		11		11		11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.3	62.7	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5	5
NH	51.7	55.9	93.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	57.0	96.0	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	51.1	60.8		5	5		5		5			5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6				15						
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	48.1	31.7						20		20		
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3						7				
OR	53.6	52.8	75.8	7		7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
PA	54.2	54.4	86.4	21	21	21		21		21	21		
RI	65.6	67.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6				8	8	8		8		8
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7									3	
TN	50.5	51.1	60.8		11	11	11	11	11	11	11		
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2						34				
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	48.5	35.4	13			13			13		13	
WA	55.9	54.4	86.4	11	11		11	11	11	11	11	11	11
WV	54.0	53.6	81.6	5	5	5	5		5	5	5	5	5
WI	52.7	51.4	63.7	10	10	10		10	10		10		10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.59%	96.8%	330	298	339	350	333	384	289	379	265	288

[Wabbajack]

1. I flunked math

this is good right? :p

[TruthIsAll]

4. Very good, and it will get better.

Kerry will approach 100% as his numbers go up. When his forecast gets to 55%, he will be there.

[whistle]

2. This is great, now can you run a similar simulation on Bush's...

...actual jobs creation since taking office. He claims to have created 1.3 million, I say it's Bushit. I think if any jobs have been created under this current recovery, it's only a shadow of what they are claiming.

[0rganism]

6. Actually, he may be right with this number -- but it's still a net loss!

Nearly a million people enter the workforce every year. A president needs to "create" 4 million jobs during a term JUST TO BREAK EVEN.

Not to mention that salaries in the average "new" jobs are 30% lower than those they're replacing...

[lapfog_1]

7. No...

the methods used by the gov to determine unemployment / job creation
are probably the most flawed statistics known to man. People fall
off the unemployment rolls by exhausting their assistance and are
counted as "re-employed"...

There must be a directly counting method for determining employment,
and the level of employment... the SS admin probably has this info,
at least for the "above ground" economy... but they won't use these
numbers...

[0rganism]

13. Hmm... did you mean to reply to my post? I'm not seeing it

My main point in the last post was that merely to keep up with a growing labor pool resultant from a growing working-age population, an economy must add jobs at a certain rate. Ergo, even tho bush might claim to have added 1.3 million jobs gross, he still has a "job deficit" of several million to make up just due to the growing workforce alone.

Check out
http://www.epinet.org/briefingpapers/146/epi_bp146.pdf
for an excellent treatment of this topic.

"The difference between actual payroll jobs in January 2004 and the number of jobs necessary to keep up with the growth in the working age population since March 2001 is 7.1 million jobs. That gap reflects not only the 2.3 million jobs lost, but also the 4.8 million jobs necessary to keep pace with working age population growth (see Figure 2). It will take years of very strong job growth to reduce such a wide gap."

which is essentially what I was getting at.

Re. the employment stats, there are two main bodies of data commonly used: the "household survey" and the "payroll survey". The payroll survey is often held to be more accurate, as it examines the records of some 400000 employers. It is probably very similar to the SS numbers you say are not used.

Re. long-term unemployed, of which I am one, epinet also has some collected stats regarding us:

http://www.epinet.org/issuebriefs/198/ib198.pdf

We make up ~1/5 of the unemployed.

Actually, I recommend every damn article on this page: :D

http://www.epinet.org/cgi-bin/shop/shop.cgi?command=listitems&pos=0&type=group&group=02

[lapfog_1]

14. No, I'm sure your right

my point was simply the *I* don't have any confidence
in the numbers that the Bushistas publish.

For example, most people hear that 1.5 M new jobs were created
since this "recovery" started. Most people would think that
this means that if there were 120 M employed people in early 2002,
that there are now 121.5 M employed people now. But the numbers
are totally misleading. And, as you point out, have absolutely
nothing to do with the "unemployment rate" (which has to account
for changes in the number of employable people).

And none of this addresses the number of underemployed people...
how many people now make do with part time... and how many have
accepted much lower pay.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. I know you're good when you have MA, RI, NY, and DC

at 100% probability. Yeah, I can read this!

[hughee99]

5. All this is a good sign but...

These are based on polls 3 months before the election before the mud starts slinging. I'll feel more confident if the numbers are the same at the end of October.

On Edit:
Just a little more history, no Democrat since 1976 has gotten more then 50% of the popular vote (Jimmy Carter 50.1%)

The Dem Avg. also bothers me for several reasons.
First, it is based on a 2 party election, and this will not be one as Nader will again try to play spoiler.
Second, it's based on the results of the last 3 elections, going back to 1992, and demographics have changed in many states since then.
and Third, Kerry seems to be lagging this average in almost half the states, although this could be because of many factors. (The popularity of the Big Dog may have lifted the Dem. Average a little, the fact that it's 3 months until the election may be keeping Kerry's numbers down because many are still undecided). I'm not trying to be a pessimist, but I don't want anyone to get too complacent. I also don't know how big a factor this number played in the calculations.

Dem Avg. Kerry
AL 44.8 41.0
AR 55.2 50.2
GA 47.6 45.7
KS 42.4 41.6
KY 46.7 46.2
LA 49.2 44.4
ME 57.1 52.3
MI 54.7 54.1
MN 55.7 54.8
MS 44.3 36.3
MO 52.5 51.1
MT 44.9 42.8
NE 37.5 36.5
NM 53.0 51.1
ND 40.8 37.2
OH 50.8 48.1
OK 42.8 39.2
OR 53.6 52.8
TX 44.3 42.6
UT 33.6 29.7
WA 55.9 54.4
WV 54.0 53.6
WI 52.7 51.4
WY 38.3 30.8

[TruthIsAll]

10. It is NOT based on the results from the last 3 elections.

I show that data for reference.

I only use the TOTAL state votes for Dems and Repubs in the last three elections in order to weight them properly to get a fair national vote split. For instance, I don't want Montana to have more influence on the national percent than NY. You need to weight the states by historic vote.

I do not use past data in anyway whatsoever to forecast the Kerry vote.

My base case forecast for both national and state polls allocates 70% of the undecideds/Nader to Kerry. I believe this is a good approximation, as Nader will not get more than 1% this time - and most of his votes (I think 70% is low) will go to Kerry. As for the other/undecided, most have gone to the challenger, especially when the incumbent is NOT popular. And Bush is not popular.

The fact that Kerry is lagging the average Dem vote in a number of states is not that important. Remember, Gore pulls down the average, since he only beat Bush by .5%. And what IS significant is that Kerry is ahead of Gore virtually all the battleground states, where it matters. If Kerry doesn't do as well as Gore in Wyoming, who cares?

What this means is that Kerry will do better than Gore, at minimum. And I believe he will approach Clinton's pluralities of 6-8 million votes vs. Bush 1 and Dole.

[hughee99]

17. Ah, okay, I understand now.

Sorry.

[greekspeak]

8. Glad someone around here is good with stats.

Not me. Very impressive math. Have you ever fed your formula with numbers based on 2000 to see what Gore looked like at this point that year?

[TruthIsAll]

11. No, I don't have access to that data, and will not waste

time in any case on the past.

Suffice it to say, most polls, including CNN/Gallup, had Gore far behind - except for Zogby.

If anythiong, I think Kerry is doing better than my numbers show, because FOX, CNN, NBC, GALLUP/CNN are bringing the averages down.

[greekspeak]

12. The polls are being spun so fast they are a blur

I saw a story in the paper Sunday I think it was, said the polls were "mixed." One poll had Shrub ahead (gallup of course), and Kerry was leading in the rest of them that were cited. Somehow, I am sure, if Kerry was leading in THAT one too, it would be spun. At any rate, thanks ever so for giving me a little more hope!!

[sonias]

9. Thank you TruthIsAll!

For the good news. Now everyone, we can't just sit back and take this for granted, they won't. So let's keep up the campaigning and organizing out there - in every state.

Sonia

[gristy]

15. Thanks for sharing the results of your hard work, TIA

Of course Rove, et. al. know all about these numbers and are crunching the polling data just as you are. Since they know the numbers, they also know that if they keep doing what they've been doing they are going to lose in November. Suffice it to say that they are NOT going to keep doing what they've been doing. There will be more wild-assed spinning of news events such as the "discovery" of that Al Queda clown's computer. I predict there will also be a huge terror cell discovered in the US some time in October. Computers will be impounded, files transferred (mostly onto, rather than off of, said computers), aluminum tubes discovered, fertilizer defused, and dozens of Middle Eastern men arrested. Those arrested will not see a lawyer, let alone speak with one, until after the election.

Just watch.

[opihimoimoi]

16. TIA, you iz da MAN

The Pub number crunchers who visit here will be astonished...

the Basement Crew in the WH is experiencing The Silence of The Lambs

They are flummoxed/chagrined/bewildered/and confused...reduced to guessing and going neg.

Bush is Toast