Does Bush get a bounce if he "captures" Osama bin Laden ?

[kentuck]

Would it be enough of a bounce to put him ahead of John Kerry? Would it give them something to talk about at their Convention instead of the "flaws" of John Kerry? Is Osama in the sights?

Or would it not be that big of a deal if Osama is captured at this late date, unless the media played it up 24/7 ? Or would the Democrats be successful in changing the subject to more appropriate issues such as the failed invasion of Iraq, the huge deficits and the economy at home? Any thoughts on this?

[bowens43]

1. If Bin Laden is captured, bush wins. n/t

[kentuck]

4. Wow! You really believe that?

Democrats better be making some preparations then....

[bowens43]

6. Yes, I do believe it.

If you don't believe it , why not?

[Commendatori]

43. I do, too. Never underestimate the

stupidity and gullibility of the average voter. Ever.

[LuminousX]

9. I believe it, too

If Osama is captured and Bush doesn't win at least 65% of the popular vote, he has essentially lost.

[Zynx]

13. No Presidential candidate will ever get over 65% of the vote.

[LuminousX]

39. But capturing Osama would be huge, Bush failing to meet that benchmark

means overall disgust with him outpaces the nation's relief that Osama is captured.

[Bowline]

14. I have to agree.

That would be a HUGE news event and you can bet the Republicans would get some serious mileage out of it.

[Malva Zebrina]

36. I believe it will put him in for another four years also---unless

some whistle blower decides to expose him as manipulating the capture in some way in order to win the election

I am sorry to say, that he has gotten away with practically every abuse and every arrogant lie he has aimed against his own people to be free to practice his fascism , both publically and in secret. He has made his own people, an enemy.

It is tragic there were few there standing for us against his tyranny-if there had been, we may not have half the worry about this. In other words although the proof will be postive that he held back or manipulated the capture of BL, I still cannot be sure, at this point, that he will not get away with it.

[MichiganVote]

2. Among the "right" and the media "right", yes

Among the rest of us and world leaders, no.

[olddem43]

3. I thought they already had him in the WH basement -

ready to bring out in October.

[chiburb]

5. I expect a 15 point bounce!

Anything less would be a major disappointment...

Isn't that what we've been taught post-convention?

[gasperc]

29. Kerry campaign is planning for this

Usama's capture will has zero effect on the diaster in Iraq but there will be a big physcological boost here in the US

It's definately a wait and see, his capture may cause many sleeper cells to spring into action!! Then what..........

[THUNDER HANDS]

7. yes

7 or 8 points

It'll last for about two weeks though. Then receed like the tides.

[Walt Starr]

11. That's why they'll trot him out on Halloween.

The bounce lasts long enough then.

[kentuck]

12. So, if he is captured one week before election, Bush wins ??

Something Democrats should focus on, in my opinion. Or cross our fingers and hope it doesn't happen? I think we might should bring it to people's attention before it happens. Put pressure on Bush to capture him. It has been too long in the waiting and he should have captured him already if we had not invaded Iraq. If he is captured, Hooray! It's about time!

[THUNDER HANDS]

26. yes, if he's captured a week before the election Bush will win

Unless his approval ratings have sunk to unheard-of, Nixon in his final days, low.

[Killarney]

8. Unfortunately, yes.

Because the media would LAP IT UP. It would be celebration after celebration all over the media. The media would announce Kerry's campaign as dead and the average American would accept it.

[ps1074]

10. If Osama is captured

I expect a 12-15 points bounce.

Bush will be at 55-57% and Kerry will be at 39-40%. It will be a lansdslide. There will be 24/7 reports on all networks about Bush winning the war on terror and how americans are safer.

You have to accept it: Bin Laden caught - Bush re-selected.

[LTR]

15. I think it may be too little, too late

Many people who are not voting for Bush are vehemently anti-Bush. Likely, they will never cross over to Bush's side.

And many polls are saying that 95% already know who they are voting for.

Could bin Laden's capture help Bush? Possibly. But Saddam's capture had little effect, and he was captured by US forces. If bin Laden is captured, it would likely be done by Pakistanis.

Bush may take some of the undecideds, but I feel that by that time, the damage done by Bush to his own campaign (he has been sliding badly in the last few months) will make it a tough, uphill struggle.

There's a chance that bin Laden's capture will not seal the deal for Dumbya.

[kentuck]

17. Bush wants to put a lot of weight on this issue, imo....

And he plans on capturing Osama anyday now, imo. And he probably will. Democrats need to start downplaying the importance of these captures and remind people of other weighty issues, before it is too late.

[smirkymonkey]

44. I agree with you....

especially if we do a good job getting the message out that we EXPECT the Admin to trot out their fall guy right before the election as a political tactic.

The more people know about it and expect it to happen, the more thunder it will take away from the event if and when it actually happens. Start talking it up. Pretty soon, it won't be a surprise to anybody and the effect on the election will be greatly diminished.

[LTR]

46. Capturing bin Laden in the mountains in October could be tough

When does winter start in the nether regions?

I remember in 2001 that our guys were trying to rush in Afghanistan due to the pending winter in the mountains. Sure, the lower lying areas were simple, but once it starts snowing at higher elevations, good freakin' luck.

And a stupid question: Would the Afghanis and Pakistanis be cool to going after bin Laden during Ramadan?

[jmowreader]

16. I'm not sure

I believe the 2004 RNC will be divided into two parts: tying John Kerry to Satan, and worshipping Ronald Reagan. Somewhere in the archive is my RNC schedule, where they spend two days replaying old Ronnie speeches, watching Reagan movies and holding Reagan look-alike contests, and three minutes renominating Bush and Cheney. (Oh yeah, there was that part where the party brought out Saddam for people to throw dogshit at, and the delegates damn near nominated HIM to run for president until someone remembered he wasn't born in the United States.)

They won't talk about Bush's achievements because, as my man Robert DeNiro said in "The Untouchables," ya got nuthin, punk. Nuuuuuuu-thing! He fucked up Iraq. He fucked up 9/11. He fucked up the economy, jobs, education...what are they gonna do, spend two days debating his one legislative success, the Do-Not-Call List?

Besides, if they bring out Osama at the convention in September, Kerry and Edwards have two months to turn the debate back to Iraq and the economy. That's too much, especially when you consider how good Kerry and Edwards are at convincing people to go along with them.

If they really captured Osama, and they really want to use him to turn the election, he's got to be pulled out of his hidey-hole on October 28th. That's the Thursday before the election. The 29th is really too late--you announce shit you want to bury quick on Friday--and to catch the attention of the NASCAR dads Bush is attempting to court, they DO NOT want to preempt the Atlanta race, which is that weekend, with Osama-getting-"captured" video. (I wouldn't put it past them to fly him to Atlanta and display him in a paddy wagon outside the main entrance to the speedway.) And Monday is too late. So it has to be the 28th of October.

[kentuck]

19. Now you're thinking !

Like the Repubs think...which is what it takes to beat them at their own game. By the way, I think they do plan on bringing out Osama before the election. We should prepare for it...

[LTR]

21. If Bush pulls the bin Laden October Surprise...

...would the masses cry 'bullshit'?

Do you think there's enough people that will roll their eyes at the timing of this thing? After all, the 'terra' alerts have lost their effectiveness.

Are people starting to see through the transparent President?

[leesa]

18. Only if we go along with the ruse that OBL did 9-11

I think Bush is too cooked. The polls being manufactured by his RW media showing a close race are as accurate as the "reporting" they do.

[JVS]

20. Big bounce

[underpants]

22. "Wait 'til the Republican convention when OBL is brought out in chains...

from the back of the theater like King Kong"

-Bill Maher on criticism of the Dem's staged convention.

Yes W would be protrayed as the New George Washington. I hope they do get that rat bastard but then at this point I think so many people are sick of W and see behind the curtain maybe he won't benefit hugely. How's that for a middle of the road answer?

[Longhorn]

28. What's great about that quote of Maher's

is that everyone is half-expecting it and even joking about it! I really do think there'd be a lot of rolled eyes if it actually happens!

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

23. I tend to agree

Osama captured = a Bush victory.

This is the only foreseeable event that will cause a significant bounce in the polls for either candidate.

This is in essence, the great paradox for Dems in 2004. Capturing the man is undeniably a good thing....it just also happens in all likelihood to guarantee the election to Bush.

[kentuck]

24. Prepare for the eventuality.

It's gonna happen. Democrats should prepare the people for it. They should not let Bush give it more weight than it deserves. It should be minimized as much as possible. Otherwise, you are correct. It could be the winning issue for Bush, unfortunately and unworthy.

[Pabst Blue Democrat]

34. It carries zero weight with me-

If he is caught I'll be glad, he's a bastard. Bush will have nothing to do with it either.....but he will take all the credit and a good chunk of people will buy it too. Bin Laden's face is now so well known; he has become the boogeyman to the western world. Capturing and parading him around would be second only to capturing Satan himself.

[Kazak]

25. Bin Laden is dead...

that's my guess.

[Longhorn]

27. I don't think it's a given that Bush* would win.

First, it's been talked about so much that I think there would be healthy speculation all around that the capture was strictly a timing issue.

Second, Bin Laden should have been caught a long time ago. Catching him now raises the "what took so long?" questions, that maybe we could have caught him sooner if we hadn't been so focused on Iraq.

Third, I agree that a lot depends on the circumstances of his capture. Will it be something for which the U.S. can take credit? There may be celebration that he is caught but not necessarily celebration of the Bush* administration, not that he won't try to take credit. In fact, those who are holding their noses to vote for Bush* because they don't think we should change leaders in the middle of a war might feel less compelled to do so.

I'm certainly no expert, nor do I have a crystal ball, but I do think it's possible that Bin Laden's capture could backfire on Bush*. It reminds me of how there was no longer an interest in "The Fugitive" once he finally caught the one-armed man! ;)

[Dangerman]

30. Easy Math...

Bin Laden gets captured... Bush wins. Bush will be hailed as the greatest president since FDR as long as the Right-Wing media sees him...

And Kerry will be treated like a piece of sh*t.

Vote Bush out first and put him in the Hague, then get bin Laden.

[KharmaTrain]

31. Try This One..."Bin Laden Is At Hand..."

I think this regime was not happy with the bump they got when they coughed up Saddam Hussein. It lasted for about a week then began to peak. Bin Laden's capture would be the best thing this regime could ask for...since they can get some more shelf-life out of him, like Hussein...but the major impact is gone.

Killing bin Laden is option two...it's the great military victory and erases letting him go at Torra Borra, but again, it's a spike type of story...it'll be big news for a week, but once it fades, it fades fast.

I think a scenario that right now helps this regime play up the fear and then put something out there out of the Atwater playbook is a different kind of "October surprise". I can see Asskroft or Rummy trotting out on Oct. 30th ala Henry Kissinger in 1972 and announce they have bin Laden surrounded and his capture is "imminent"...raising the anticipation and the buzz far higher and it can be controlled through election day. I hope I'm wrong!

[Danger Duck]

32. I think

* will benefit more if WMD are found in Iraq, than if OBL is captured.

[ClassWarrior]

33. Yeah, bounced right out of the Oval Office...

...for finally getting around to it after three years and a pointless war in Iraq.

[whosinpower]

35. Capture him - are you crazy?

That would end the game far far too soon...the agenda is not complete. They will not capture him - he is more valuable as a villain than a prisoner.

Al Zarqawi however - that is fair to say that he may be captured...

[Tactical Progressive]

37. "The LEAST that Bush can do is get Osama bin Laden

before he goes in November. It's been three years already."

That's the kind of meme that Democrats should be dropping into most conversation; you'll find that it fits in pretty easily.

Such a statement works well both as a slam on Bush's current failure in the war on terra, but more importantly it is an INNOCULATION for the typical Republican election treachery that can reasonably be expected.

Do it now, because after it happens our fully right-wing mainstream media is going to be GLOWING in complete thrall over Bush's strength in protecting America, and they don't want to hear about BushCo's responsibility in the negligent deaths of 3000 Americans on 9/11. They want only to hear how great Bush is. Any dissent or cynicism you voice after the fact will be immediately converted into allusions to 'Democrats who hate Bush while he keeps America safe', or some such contorted nonsense, by every talking head.

Start setting the expectation now, so that later you can say "It's about time. At least Bush did one thing right before he left."

[kentuck]

38. Absolutely correct Chris !

I agree with all you said.

[Tactical Progressive]

40. It goes against the Democratic tendency to play defense,

always waiting to react to the next piece of Republican garbage to be thrown our way, but bin Laden's capture is something that Dems everywhere should be setting expectations on.

I'd love to see one of ours throw something like that out at the end of a segment on a show like 'Crossfire', or better yet one of the candidates during the debates. But mostly I think it is a meme that the rank and file should be promoting in both internet and personal discussions.

At least get Osama before you go - It's a challenge and an indictment and an expectation of Bush gone, all at the same time.

[kentuck]

41. That's the least he could do before he goes back to Crawford....

or wherever his plans lead him? He should devote all his attention to capturing Osama before he leaves. The mess in Iraq is enough for several years of clean-up. It would help if he could clean up the one little mess with Osama bin Laden. I agree. :)

[ClassWarrior]

45. Excellent, Chris - may I post this as a MEME MEMO?

[Tactical Progressive]

47. Certainly, yes.

It's important to rhetorically defend against this possibility in advance.

[samsingh]

42. yes - big time

it's unbelievable that he has the level of support he currently does with the blatant lies, hypocrasy, and screwups.

People want to support him it seems.

[Selwynn]

48. Absolutely. He'll also get a bounce if we are attacked. In either case..

..he would win.

[greekspeak]

49. Take your pick of winners for Shrub

1) Pull Bin Forgotten out of your magic hat

2) Scary Red Alert Martial Law on Election Day

3) Terra attack conveniently happens, to which Shrub "valiantly" responds

4) Start some more whore media outlets and keep telling the Sheeple that black is white and wrong is right.

Did I leave any out? Any of these, I think, will make poll numbers obsolete. And if ShrubCo doesn't use any of them I am going to be quite suprised.

[AmerDem]

50. only bounce that fascist fuck needs is a ....

bounce upside the head with a baseball bat! I hate that Nazi cocksucker!