Polls: The Devil is in The Details

[stewert]

I just put this together and posted it on my web site so I thought I would post it here too. This is the information the mainstream media does not tell anyone. There is a few shocking results in these polls. The big ones are the Hispanic vote and the Catholic vote, among others.

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This data is from a Zogby poll Released: July 30, 2004:

The most important group in this election now is the undecideds and Mr. Bush’s standing among them is weak. He is generally well liked among the undecideds, but his job performance is another story. Only 32% approve of Bush’s job in office and only 31% believe the country is headed in the right direction.

Mr. Bush is running far behind his 2000 Hispanic total, with only 19% of the Hispanic voters supporting him, while Mr. Kerry is beating Mr. Gore’s total with 69%. Mr. Kerry is also running very strong among Catholics, topping Mr. Bush, 52% to 37%.

Not only has Kerry now come to a tie with Bush in favorability in the South (55% for both), the Kerry-Edwards ticket has pulled ahead, 48% to 46% in the South. President Bush’s job performance is down to only 44% in the South, and only 43% of Southerners think the country is headed in the right direction.

In the Blue states, Mr. Kerry is winning 50% to 38%, while in the Red States, Mr. Bush is only winning 48% to 46%. Among Single voters, Mr. Kerry is winning huge by a total of 69% to 19%. And among young voters – 18-29 year olds – a group Al Gore only won by 2 points in 2000, Kerry is winning in a landslide, 53% to 33%.

Mr. Kerry is showing a 2-to-1 lead (50% to 25%) amongst voters who didn’t vote in 2000, while winning three-quarters (75%) of Ralph Nader’s voters and stealing twice as many (8% to 4%) of Mr. Bush voters in 2000 than Bush is stealing of Gore voters in 2000.

www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=849

This data is from the Newsweek poll Released: July 31, 2004:

According to the latest Newsweek Poll, conducted Thursday and Friday. Kerry receives 49 percent of the vote; Bush, 42 percent and Nader, 3 percent. In Friday interviews after the speech, Kerry received 50 percent, Bush 40 percent and Nader 3 percent. That's a 10 point lead for Kerry folks, funny how the media ignored this poll to report the Gallup poll showing Kerry 3 points ahead.

The Issues

Among registered voters, Bush and Kerry are even at 46 percent on handling the situation in Iraq, Bush scores better on handling terrorism and homeland security (48% vs. 43%).

Kerry scores far better on every other issue:

Health Care/Medicare (55% vs. 32%)
American jobs and foreign competition (53% vs. 36%)
Education (48% vs. 40%)
The environment (59% vs. 29%)
Stem cell research (53% vs. 26%)
Bush's job-approval rating is 45%
58 Percent Dissatisfied With Direction of Country
57 Percent Say War With Iraq Has Not Made U.S. Safer

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=109&STORY=/www/story/07-31-2004/0002222417&EDATE=

Yet you never get any of this detailed information from these polls by the mainstream media. John Kerry is ahead on every single issue that people care about except Homeland Security and handling terrorism. And if you believe John Kerry is not going to fight terrorism, or protect us, I have a bridge to sell you. Now you know why Bush is only running on Homeland Security and Terrorism, because those are the only 2 issues he is leading over Kerry in the polls. And Bush is only 5 points ahead of Kerry on those 2 issues. If you only get your news from the media you would think Bush is ahead or close on all these issues. This is how bad our corporate media is today, they hide the information you need to know to make an informed vote.

[demgrrrll]

1. Michael Moore pointed out that in many of these polls they are

questioning registered voters, Moore feels that anti Bush sentiment will bring out many more people and the registered voter polls are not accurate. That would mean that Kerry is doing even better than some polls indicate. Works for me!

[iconoclastic cat]

2. Also, in phone polls, how many people have switched to using cells

as their primary phone line, while cancelling their land line (or using it only for DSL)? Those people aren't being polled at all, unless they seek out Zogby or one of the lesser online polls.

I really think that the polls are way off the mark this year.

[stewert]

4. Are You Sure ?

I saw Michael Moore talking about likely voters, he said the polls of likely voters are crap because it is people who voted in 2000 and are likely to vote again in 2004.

I did not see him say anything about registered voter polls. Zogby does the registered voter polls and they are the most accurate of any polls. I believe Moore could have been talking about the new voters who plan to register to vote just to vote against Bush.

If Moore said registered voter polls are never accurate, that would be wrong. Zogby is accurate all the time with his registered voter polls. If Moore just said the registered voter polls may not be very accurate for this election only, that might be correct.

[gasperc]

7. remember Moore's TVnation polls

I wonder if he has them archived on his website, his questions were hilarious!!

As far as Moore's comments, can't agree more HOWEVER, the Bush campaign will use the radioactive stragety. Throw so much slime at Kerry as to make him radioactive so that people won't go to the polls and vote for him, especially people who rarely or never vote. They are the most likely to already be disgusted with the system so why bother voting for someone. Whereas the republicans will vote for a pile of shit wearing a cariboo seal leather jacket AND BRAG ABOUT IT!

I am confident the Kerry team is ready and will counter effectively.

[cthrumatrix]

8. the story is how the media "covers the weakness of bush" in the polls

[buycitgo]

9. NONONONO

big big big difference

LIKELY VOTERS is what Moore is talking, and he says that index is WRONG, cause there's no way to measure this accurately since 911

he says that changed EVERYTHING

sound familiar? there's no way to tell who's likely to vote this time, and that lots of people who never get polled, or who aren't considered likely to vote, WILL vote this time

he's not going on anything but his own feelings, but thinks he's got a good handle on this, based on his travels, feedback at his site, emails he gets, phone calls, etc

who knows if he's right, but it sure would be great if he is

[demgrrrll]

11. You are right, I was going from memory. It is likely voters not

registered voters. I think he may be right though.

[KurtNYC]

3. Thanks for the details

I wrote to an op-ed writer the other day in response to his fantasy about Boosh winning big this time:

Let's talk for a moment about your electoral analysis. In 2000, in a high turn out election, Bush lost the popular vote by 500K+ votes. He has pissed off many of the people who voted for him last time. Why? Because he is NOT a fiscal conservative and he lied to the country repeatedly in order to get us into the Iraq quagmire. $100 million in negative ads have failed to stem the tide. People see George Tenet getting fired and Paul O'Neil coming out with unflattering information and CIA agents being "outted" as political punishment -- it doesn't make them feel safer OR better about Bush. How in the world do you expect Bush to get more votes this time than he did last time?!

You have given me even more points to make this argument with in the future. Thanks.

[Kolesar]

5. That is a good letter

Fact filled and without hyperbole or personal attacks. :thumbsup:

[cthrumatrix]

6. this is why they have to go fear...issues and reality says that america

has had enough of this "selected awol resident"

[Robbien]

10. The Bush Team knows this

that is why they keep putting out the smears and keep putting pressure on mainsteam media.

Thanks Stewart for digging out the details.