let's see, suburban moderates won't vote for Keyes, especially not the soccer moms with his fringe right views on social issues. neither will rednecks downstate. Or people who just don't like carpetbaggers.
About 35% of the electorate is probably hardcore repuke and will vote for whoever has an R next to their name.
Also seeing as Obama has no chance of loosing and Kerry is virtually assured victory in IL, that will probably depress turnout which will tend to benefit Republicans. Obviously not enough to make close, but I'd be surprised to see Keyes get under 35%.
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