8/6 KERRY WIN PROBABILITY:97.33%; VOTE:52.90%; EV:321

[TruthIsAll]

								
ELECTION FORECAST / SIMULATION MODEL								
Created by TRUTHISALL								
								
National Polling data: Pollingreport.com								
State Polling data: Electoral-vote.com 								
								
								
COMBINED NATIONAL/STATE MODEL 								
Assumes 70% of undecided/other to Kerry								
								
………	Nat.	State	Comb.	AvgSim	Win Probability			
………	Model	Model	Vote%	EV	Nat.	State	Comb.	
Kerry:	53.08	 52.73 	52.90	321	 97.45 	97.20	97.33	
Bush:	46.92	 47.27 	47.10	217	 2.55 	 2.80 	2.67	
Spread:	6.16	5.46	5.81	104		
						
LATEST NATIONAL POLLS, FORECAST, WIN PROBABILITY						
15Poll	Avg	Proj.	Prob.			
Kerry:	48.13	53.08	 97.45 			
Bush:	44.80	46.92	 2.55 			
Spread:	3.33	6.16				
						
Kerry:	97.5%	probability of popular vote win.				
						
NATIONAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
Effect of various undecided/other allocation assumptions						
	Assume Kerry allocation of:					
Alloc:	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	
Vote:	51.67	52.37	53.08	53.79	54.49	
Prob:	 85.42 	 93.35 	 97.45 	 99.18 	 99.78 	
						
STATE FORECAST SIMULATION / WIN PROBABILITY						
Forecast  %    EV          						
Kerry:	52.73	321				
Bush:	47.27	217				
Spread:	5.46	104				
						
Kerry:	97.2%	probability of at least 270 EV.				
Wins :	972	of 1000 election trials. 				
						
ELECTORAL VOTE/ WIN PROBABILITY SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS						
One thousand  (1000) trials are run in each simulation.						
						
Simulation I: Conservative Case 						
Assume:	60%	of undecided/other to Kerry.				
						
Kerry:	51.78%	of the vote.	
Wins:	89.1%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg:	305	electoral votes.	
Max:	404	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation II: Most Likely Case 			
Assume:	70%	of undecided/other to Kerry.	
			
Kerry:	52.73%	of the vote.	
Wins:	97.2%	of 1000 election trials. 	
Avg:	321	electoral votes.	
Max:	440	electoral votes.	
			
			
Simulation III: Optimistic Case 			
Assume:	80%	of undecided/other to Kerry.		
				
Kerry:	53.68%	of the vote.		
Wins:	99.3%	of 1000 election trials. 		
Avg:	338	electoral votes.		
Max:	425	electoral votes.		
				
				


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS				
(in millions of votes)				
Dem	138.78	52.61%		
Rep	125.03	47.39%		

				

BUSH JOB APPROVAL												
The data source is PollingReport.com    												
												
2004	Avg	Nwk	Fox	CNN	Pew	Harris	CBS	ABC	Time	NBC	AP	Zogby
Jan.	54.50	50	58	60	56	na	50	58	54	54	56	49
Feb.	49.67	48	48	51	48	51	50	50	54	na	47	na
Mar.	48.75	48	48	49	46	na	51	50	na	50	48	na
Apr.	48.80	49	50	52	48	48	46	51	49	na	48	47
May	45.20	42	48	47	44	na	41	47	46	47	48	42
June	47.00	na	48	49	48	50	42	47	na	45	48	46
July	48.00	48	47	47	46	na	45	50	50	48	50	49
Aug	45.33	45	44	48	na	na	44	47	na	na	na	44
												
												
												
						
NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE TREND						
Based on latest national polls from:						
IBD, ABC, NWK, ARG, CBS, PEW, LAT, ZOGBY, TIME						
Data source: PollingReport.com    						
						
						
Kerry projection is the current average of these polls						
plus 70% of undecided/other voters.						
						
	Avg Poll Trend		Projection			
2004	Kerry	Bush 	Diff	Kerry	Bush 	Diff
Jan 	44.0	49.4	-5.4	46.4	53.6	-7.1
Feb	48.0	45.4	2.6	52.6	47.4	5.2
Mar	48.6	44.0	4.6	53.8	46.2	7.5
Apr	47.4	44.9	2.5	52.8	47.2	5.6
May	47.8	44.0	3.8	53.5	46.5	7.1							
June	47.1	44.7	2.4	52.8	47.2	5.7							
July	48.1	45.0	3.1	52.9	47.1	5.9							
Aug	49.6	44.0	5.6	54.1	45.9	8.2							
													
KERRY NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE FORECAST/WIN PROBABILITIES
													
Uses latest national poll (15) data													
Avg 	48.13%	 Latest 15 poll average (mean)											
+Alloc.	4.95%	+ 70% undecided/other 											
= Proj.	53.08%	 = Projected Kerry %											
													
Prob: 	97.45%	> 50% of popular vote											
													
-------	Date			Kerry%	Kerry% undecided/other 								
-------	(mdd)	Kerry	Bush	vs.Bush	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%				
													
TIME	722	50	45	52.6	52.5	53.0	53.5	54.0	54.5
FOX	804	46	42	52.3	52.0	53.2	54.4	55.6	56.8
CNN/GAL	801	48	48	50.0	50.0	50.4	50.8	51.2	51.6
LAT	721	48	46	51.1	51.0	51.6	52.2	52.8	53.4
PEW	718	46	44	51.1	51.0	52.0	53.0	54.0	55.0
									
IBD	724	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9
CBS	730	49	43	53.3	53.0	53.8	54.6	55.4	56.2
DEMC	713	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
ABC/WP	802	52	45	53.6	53.5	53.8	54.1	54.4	54.7
NWK	730	52	44	54.2	54.0	54.4	54.8	55.2	55.6
									
ZOGBY	729	48	43	52.7	52.5	53.4	54.3	55.2	56.1
AP	707	45	49	47.9	48.0	48.6	49.2	49.8	50.4
NBC/WSJ	721	45	47	48.9	49.0	49.8	50.6	51.4	52.2
ARG	801	49	45	52.1	52.0	52.6	53.2	53.8	54.4
QPAC	722	46	43	51.7	51.5	52.6	53.7	54.8	55.9	
										
Mean	______	48.13	44.80	51.79	51.67	52.37	53.08	53.79	54.49	
Prob>x	______	______	______	87.18	85.42	93.35	97.45	99.18	99.78	
										
Std	______	2.50	2.01	1.78	1.69	1.65	1.66	1.73	1.85	
StdP	______	1.58	1.57	1.58	1.58	1.58	1.58	1.58	1.57	
										
95% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	51.23	47.88	54.89	54.76	55.47	56.17	56.88	57.58	
Min	______	45.04	41.72	48.70	48.57	49.28	49.99	50.70	51.41	
x	______	47.88	47.88	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	50.00	
Prob>x	______	56.31	2.50	87.18	85.42	93.35	97.45	99.18	99.78	
										
99% Confidence Interval										
Max	______	52.21	48.86	55.87						
Min	______	44.06	40.74	47.72					
x	______	48.86	48.86	50.00					
Prob>x	______	32.34	0.49	87.18					
									
									
Notes:									
Std = Standard Deviation (variability) of polls									
StdP = Sqrt((1-p)*p/1000), where 1000 is average poll sample
size									
									
									
95% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 1.96 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 1.96 * StdP									
									
99% Confidence Limits:									
Max = Mean + 2.58 * StdP									
Min = Mean - 2.58 * StdP								
								
								
								
								
								
								
								
ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST METHODOLOGY								

Kerry National and State Vote Projections								
State vote%: Latest state poll plus assumed share of
undecided/other voters.								
National vote%:Weighted sum of projected % state
votes.								
Probability of a state win is based on projected %
vote.								


Most Likely Case													
Assume 70% of undecided/other voters for Kerry													
Win	Prob.	Pct	EV										
Kerry	97.2%	52.7%	321										
Bush	2.8%	47.3%	217										

Historical Vote %, Kerry Projection and Win Probability
													
Dem Hist. is Democratic share of 2-party vote in last three
presidential elections.													
													
-------	Dem	Kerry	Kerry	EV simulation trials 1-10 of
1000									
-------	Hist.	Proj.	Prob.	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
State	52.60%	52.73%	97.2%	308	365	317	304	261	329	286	343	363	324
													
AL	44.8	41.0	1.2										
AK	37.6	40.7	1.0										
AZ	48.8	49.9	49.0		10	10		10			10	10	10
AR	55.2	50.2	52.0		6	6		6	6	6			6
CA	57.4	58.1	97.9	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55	55
													
CO	48.8	49.3	43.1			9					9	9	
CT	57.7	62.6	99.9	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7	7
DE	56.8	57.1	96.2	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
DC	90.3	89.5	100.0	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
FL	50.7	50.5	55.0	27	27					27	27	27	
													
GA	47.6	45.9	15.3		15							15	15
HI	59.0	60.9	99.7	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
ID	35.7	39.0	0.3										
IL	57.9	58.9	98.7	21	21	21	21		21	21	21	21	21
IN	44.8	45.9	15.3		11						11		
													
IA	51.8	52.2	70.9	7	7	7	7	7	7		7		
KS	42.4	41.6	1.8										
KY	46.7	46.2	17.1				8					8	
LA	49.2	44.4	8.1										
ME	57.1	52.3	71.7		4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	
													
MD	57.8	58.6	98.4	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10	10
MA	65.3	65.8	100.0	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12	12
MI	54.7	56.9	95.8		17	17	17		17	17	17	17	17
MN	55.7	52.6	74.2		10	10	10		10		10	10	10
MS	44.3	36.3	0.0										
													
MO	52.5	51.1	60.8		11		11	11		11	11		11
MT	44.9	42.8	3.6										
NE	37.5	36.5	0.0										
NV	49.9	51.3	62.7	5	5		5	5	5	5	5		
NH	51.7	55.9	93.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
NJ	56.5	59.5	99.1	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15	15
NM	53.0	51.1	60.8	5	5	5	5	5	5			5	5
NY	62.6	65.0	100.0	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31	31
NC	46.6	47.5	26.6	15					15			15	
ND	40.8	37.2	0.1										
													
OH	50.8	48.9	39.2	20		20			20				20
OK	42.8	39.2	0.3										
OR	53.6	52.8	75.8	7	7	7	7	7		7	7		
PA	54.2	57.2	96.4	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21	21
RI	65.6	67.2	100.0	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4	4
													
SC	44.4	47.5	26.6				8	8	8		8		
SD	44.5	44.8	9.7										
TN	50.5	50.2	52.0		11					11		11	11
TX	44.3	42.6	3.2										
UT	33.6	29.7	0.0										
													
VT	59.4	60.1	99.4	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3	3
VA	47.3	49.9	49.0	13		13	13		13		13	13	
WA	55.9	53.8	82.9	11	11	11	11	11	11		11	11	11
WV	54.0	53.6	81.6	5	5	5	5	5	5	5		5	5
WI	52.7	51.9	68.3		10			10	10			10	10
WY	38.3	30.8	0.0										
													
Avg	52.60%	52.73%	97.2%	308	365	317	304	261	329	286	343	363	324

[comradebillyboy]

1. impressive effort, but

i am skeptical. such models tend to over simplify imho

hope you are correct though

[Robbien]

2. Love the results

It just goes to reason if Bush is stuck in the low to mid forties, his chances are very very slim.

[prana]

3. Methodology?

I'm relatively new to your work (although I am also a electoral vote person) so if this has been asked, I apologize, but this board moves so fast, finding the answer to that would be VERY hard.

Particularly, what is the Win Potention (something like that, can't see that thread) variable, and how is it calculated.

Second, why the national data? It's sort of interesting, but irrelevant, unless we want to bitch and moan later that the popular vote loved us and the electoral college didn't. It seems to me that the state polls area all that matter.

Finally, I'd love to see the models that you are using for your analyses...I'm a poli-sci grad student...and am kind of fascinated by many of the calculations.

[opihimoimoi]

4. Kerry got the best odds at the moment....bush looks like capt of sinking

ship.....going down fast....