Oil futures hit record on supply fears $46.91 - when will it break $100?

[bpilgrim]

before the election or after?

http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=565824§ion=news

...

Iraq exports were running at 900,000 barrels per day, half the normal rate, as the country's main southern export pipeline remains shut following a Shi'ite uprising.

September Brent crude, which expires later on Monday, was untraded but quoted at $43.77/$43.94, around its Friday close of $43.88. The October contract was up 13 cents at $43.04.

NYMEX September gasoline was up 0.22 cent to $1.3490 a gallon, while September heating oil was at $1.2195 a gallon, 0.5 cent up.

Scorching global crude and low kerosene stocks drove up most TOCOM contracts.

"All oil futures, except the prompt month gasoline contract, rose to record highs," a TOCOM spokesman said.

more...
http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsPackageArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=565824§ion=news

or will bandar bush pull an oily rabbit out the sand?

:scared:

peace

[ramapo]

1. Gas prices have dropped

I don't expect the price to stay down but we're at least 20 cents a gallon off the highs.

$100/bbl would be a very ugly scenario. I don't see it happening.

[bpilgrim]

3. reserves are high due to cool summer

i've heard :shrug:

but whatever the reasons it hasn't impacted one bit on the price of oil which keeps rising.

many think we are approaching peak and this is a reflection of that reality.

but apparently the markets don't see much room in the market for additional demand let alone disruptions.

then there's the german bank discussing the very same thing.

i wanna hear what du thinks about the price of oil futures for the next 12 months at least =)

peace

[Bluebear]

2. Article here, oil price may hit $100

Deutsche warns oil price may hit $100

JAMES DOW ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT

OIL prices could potentially hit $100 per barrel, analysts at Deutsche Bank warned yesterday - as the cost of US light crude hit a 21-year record of almost $44.

Adam Sieminski, Deutsche’s global energy strategist, claimed that oil supplies have become so tight in recent weeks that a serious disruption in the Middle East could send prices rocketing to unprecedented heights.

He said: "It is worth asking ourselves - ‘what would happen tomorrow if we lost four million barrels a day, due to some accident?’ Or let’s say Iraq’s two million barrels a day became unavailable. OPEC’s got no spare capacity. And that could be it - $100 per barrel."

Sieminski stressed that this was not a wild claim. "The last time OPEC was at 95-100 per cent capacity was in 1973-74, and again around 1980. And disruptions put prices up by 50 to 100 per cent.

http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=887522004

[Strelnikov_]

12. How About $182/bbl

When demand collides with supply for a price inelastic commodity, the price will skyrocket. Elasticity will be regained somewhat as demand adjusts to price (supply) through efficiency measures, only to have demand and supply collide again starting the entire price shock cycle over.

Is The World's Oil Running Out Fast?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/3777413.stm

"Oil is far too cheap at the moment," says Mr Simmons.

"The figure I'd use is around $182 a barrel. We need to price oil realistically to control its demand. That is because global production is peaking."
. . .

The adherents of the peak oil theory warn the decline of world oil output will force oil prices higher for good, and that the knock on effects could be catastrophic.

"In my opinion, unfortunately, there will be no linear change," says Iran's Ali Bakhtiari. "There will only be sudden explosive change."

"The people who will be least affected will be the super poor, who already have no access to energy, and the super rich who do not care if oil is $100 a barrel."

"It is everyone who is in the middle who will be hurt the most," says Mr Bakhtiari. "When the crisis comes there will be enormous changes."

. . .

[southernleftylady]

4. oil prices are down for THIS MONTH... but those $47 dollar prices you see

arent for now.. they are for NEXT MONTHS deliverary!
next month the gas prices are going to jump WAY up...

[Geo55]

5. Could be OIL shock #1

things will bust....cool down....can you say recession?

[Warpy]

6. The prediction was for $50 by December

but it looks to me like it might get that high by the end of this week. I wouldn't think the price would go much above that, but you never know what will happen in a panicked market, which this is showing every sign of becoming.

[tritsofme]

7. Release reserves, pop the speculative bubble.

These high oil prices are a result almost exclusive of speculation.

Demand has only increased 5% this year, while NYMEX futures have soared 40%.

Nevertheless, barring Saudi production being taken completely offline, I don't think we will ever see $100bbl.

[AG78]

8. It keeps going up

like $0.50 a day. It's amazing. This should be the lead story on every news cast, each and every day.

[gristy]

9. It's only worthy of mention when it drops. And then it's a "trend"

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=2156320

[LunaC]

10. The Chavez win in Venezuela should calm fears/prices for awhile n/t

[mike1963]

11. sooner the better, for me! I worked my ass off for many years with my dad

who was a small independent geologist/petro engineer...he left me overriding royalties on a bunch of wells he drilled on his own nickel.
(Johnsonville pool in Illinois)
:D