Should I worry about the (allegedly) impending Global Flu Epidemic?

[Used and Abused]

I've never had the flu or the flu vaccine? Should I get the vaccine? I'm 24 years old and I think I'm in good health. Is this scare real, or just another Bush-led scare tactic?

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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040826/ap_on_he_me/flu_pandemic_15

WASHINGTON - How to ration scarce medications and speed vaccine production are among the government's top concerns as it struggles to get ready for the next worldwide flu epidemic, say federal plans obtained by The Associated Press.

[demnan]

1. This article is Scientific speculation

It doesn't mean this year, next year but that it will come. Why? Because it always does. I get a flu shot every year but I'm not so sure even that helps very much. If you are a young adult in good health I wouldn't worry. Mostly the flu carries off the sick, elderly, immune-challenged and infants.

[Jacobin]

2. I just finished reading The Great Influenza

about the 1918, 1919 pandemic that killed millions world wide.

Each year, the ordinary flue kills tens of thousands of Americans, but it is mostly the elderly and those with other illnesses who are already weakened.

If we get a mutated strain like the 1918 epidemic it can be really bad.

I think the CDC is pretty much on the ball and is watching carefully. It takes some time to isolate the new virus each year and make a serum, so there are some problems during that lag time.

[noonwitch]

3. If you work in the medical field, you should get the vaccination

Even if you are healthy.

I've never gotten a flu bug that I couldn't fight off in a few days, except one that turned into bronchitis and I needed antibiotics to fight off. I was lucky-my roommate had the same virus and ended up with pneumonia a few weeks later.

[leesa]

4. Why on earth would you waste time and energy worrying

about something like this?

Every year they pump this fear-mongering crap out to give yet more bucks to the bloated pharmaceutical industry. The virus that will cause a pandemic will not be the one they are making megabucks selling a vaccine for.

[jayfish]

5. And They Probably Won't Even See It Coming -NT-

Jay

[Warpy]

6. If you live in the US, you will likely escape

If you live in the rest of the developed world, you will likely escape. Flu vaccines will be available for those most at risk, and possibly for everyone else, as well. While it may not eliminate the disease in the first world, it will cut down on the number of deaths.

The last flu pandemic killed nearly 10% of us. This will probably be increased in the third world, where people are already weakened by hunger and other diseases.

China has been working to contain the avian flu there, and diseased birds are being culled in the first world, too. However, there's only so much to do to contain Mother Nature, and the jump to swine probably means the next jump is to human beings. We may be able to slow the process, but we won't be able to stop it.

[Lydia Leftcoast]

7. The Global Flu Epidemic of 1918 was quite real--

my grandparents were living in a small town in North Dakota at the time. Two teachers at the school where my grandfather taught died, both of them young people just a year or two out of college.

My grandmother also told of an incident in which someone noticed that they hadn't seen anyone from a certain family for a long time. The county sheriff went out to the family's isolated farm and found all five of them dead.

The 1918 pandemic was unusual for flu in that it killed mostly people in their late teens to early thirties, unlike the typical flu, which is fatal mostly to the elderly. I vaguely remember reading that more World War I-era U.S. soldiers died from the flu than from combat.

However, in these times it would not strike without warning. Flu epidemics start in East Asia, and since the SARS epidemic, all the countries in that region are alert to the dangers of flu. (Japan had an epidemic of bird flu recently and contained it by quarantining the affected farms and killing affected flocks.)

The tricky part is the vaccine. It takes about a year to develop each one, so pharmaceutical companies have to guess which strains are going to be prevalent in the coming year.

If a flu epidemic were to strike suddenly, the best preventative would be to stay out of crowds, wear a face mask (as people in East Asia routinely do when they have colds), and wash your hands frequently.

[Used and Abused]

9. Why do you say

that flu epidemics start in East Asia?

[supernova]

10. It's nothing against Asians

It's that in Asia you have so many people living in such close quarters with their animals, its just easier for bugs to jump from species to species.... and mutate in the process.

[Stuckinthebush]

20. My grandmother survived

but lost all of her hearing due to a remedy.

I grew up thinking all grandmothers were deaf. She was a very strong woman with many sad memories of 1918.

[Richard D]

8. A good flu remedy

There are a few things that can be done other than a flu shot.

Take large quantities of vitamin C
Take a really good multi-vitamin.
Have a remedy called occilococinum on hand. Follow directions at the first sign of flu. It doesn't stop it, but it makes the symptoms a lot less severe.
There is a traditional Chinese herbal remedy called Pueraria Combination. Take 1 a day during flu season to help ward off the flu.

[mtnester]

11. The word I heard used repeatedly was PANDEMIC

which I believe is MUCH worse than Epidemic...correct me if I am wrong on this point please.

[supernova]

13. Yes, it's worse

a Pandemic is a globe-wide infection. An epidemic can be contained to a certain geographic region, if a very large one.

The 1918 pandemic killed 20 million people world wide.

I think Nova did a story within the last couple of years about scientists who were looking for victims because they wanted a sample of that killer strain. Before that, there was no lab sample of it... anywhere.

[mtnester]

15. Thanks

I saw a headline for a story to be on TV last night for this (cannot remember what channel I was on) and a whole bunch of thoughts ran through my head...some tinfoil...some not

:)

[toddaa]

17. Epidemic v. Pandemic v. Endemic

Epidemics are local events, whereas pandemics are world wide. Endemics, on the other hand, are diseases that become entrenched in a region and never really go away.

Bubonic plague outbreaks are epidemics. Influenza outbreaks are pandemics. West Nile is a endemic.

[toddaa]

12. WASH YOUR HANDS

It's your best defense and the only proven way to slow down an influenza breakout.

[supernova]

14. Yep.

hand washing is best.

[Paulie]

16. How is that?

It's an airborne virus.

Sure your not thinking norovirus (aka norwalk-like virus)??? :)

[toddaa]

19. Here's how

The virus also lives in your body fluids. When you exhale, you release water into the air. That water lands somewhere and chances are it's somewhere you touch. Then you eat a sandwich or wipe your eyes and WHAMO, your infected.

[amazona]

18. don't worry so much

The vaccine is of limited utility because the flu keeps changing every year and sometimes the vaccine produced is not of much utility against the flu strain that actually emerges. I find it pointless to worry about things I can't control nor do I waste my time getting vaccines for diseases that may, or may not, ever come into play. Admittedly I do acquire the flu fairly often, although not so much in recent years.

[MISSDem]

21. Wash your hands a lot, turn off the water faucet with a paper towel

or something use something to open the door (paper towel, etc). You get most stuff from your hands. Don't touch your face, mouth, eyes, nose, etc unless you have just washed your hands. Sounds like a phobia but I do it and haven't even had a cold in ages.

[depakid]

22. The article is referring to a strain of Avian Influenza

not the "normal" flu, and yes, it is indeed a valid concern.

H5N1 is highly virulent. There are no vaccinations for it- and supplies of the best known treatment, Tamiflu, are limited- and would in any even need to be dispensed within a short time of the onset of symptoms to be effective. Not very likely, in the event of a pandemic public health services would quickly be overwhelmed beyond capacity- many tens of millions in America don't even have a primary care physician.

These two surveillance & response reports from the World Health Organization provide a summary of what has scientists concerned:

Avian influenza - update: Implications of H5N1 infections in pigs in China

25 August 2004

Considering the widespread nature of the current H5N1 outbreak in Asia and the capability of influenza viruses to jump the species barriers, it is inevitable that H5N1 virus will be detected in some pigs. Pigs can be infected with both avian and human influenza A viruses-for instance, human influenza H3N2 viruses have been detected in pigs in Asia, Europe and Africa.

Some of these human and avian influenza viruses might become adapted to pigs and then begin circulating in pig populations. The co-circulation of avian, human, and pig viruses in pigs is of significant concern because of the potential for a genetic exchange, or "reassortment," of material between these viruses. Such an occurrence has the potential to produce a new, pandemic influenza strain.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_08_25/en/

Avian influenza – situation in Viet Nam

18 August 2004

In the present outbreak in Viet Nam, first reported last week, three fatal human cases of avian influenza have now been laboratory confirmed, two in the north and one in the south. For two of these cases, further testing has identified the H5N1 strain as the causative agent. The most recent case died on 6 August and no new cases have been identified since then.

With support from the Ministry of Health in Viet Nam, arrangements are under way to send specimens from these cases to a laboratory in the WHO Global Influenza Surveillance Network. The laboratory will perform gene sequencing and other analyses of the virus in order to yield information immediately relevant to assessment of the public health risk.

Studies will determine whether the virus responsible for these cases has mutated. It is particularly important to learn whether the H5N1 virus strain remains entirely of avian origin.

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_08_18/en/