Scrap Iron prices indicator of upcoming MAJOR war?

[mtnester]

Being born and raised in the "country" I have learned to listen hard to what life long farmers tell me. They sometimes see/notice things the rest of us in the hustle bustle world overlook, dismiss or miss.

A man who I would consider to be a very typical lifetime family farmer, with that cool, level, fatalistic logic of many farmers I know, has discussed with me the upcoming major war. When I asked him about it, he told me that for no matter the publicly stated reason, the price of scrap iron has escalated so dramatically, it indicated that a MAJOR war would be coming.

When I asked him why, he gave me a full history of the raw scrap iron pricing before WWII, Korea and Vietnam and how the same type of escalation happened (dramatic unreal escalation). Now, this is from a man who every day of his life has listened to the commodities reports, etc. He is also the son of a son of a son of a son (you get the idea) farmer so he has that history as well.

I guess I am throwing this out as a topic of discussion as I found this fascinating, believable, and a tad frightening, particularly as it came from this most honorable, decent, trustworthy, calm thinker of a man.

Anyone else have thoughts on this?

[Elbowroom]

1. scrap prices/surcharges

Seems to be doing the same across the board in the steel industry. The price increases have been insane for the past year or so.

[Kagemusha]

2. Only true if China's increase in use is all missiles or something.

I kinda doubt that...

[mtnester]

8. I have read the printed reasons for the recent increase in demand

But this man, in a very serious conversation, said that even if the reasons printed were high demand, shortage of raw product, etc, it has always before in the modern age prefaced a MAJOR war.

It is hard for me to tell you how much value I place on information imparted to me from folks like this, who have knowledge handed down to them generation after generation in a different way than maybe most of the rest of us have. They always seem to be able to "sense" what is coming before anyone else does...if that makes sense to anyone but me
:shrug:

[Rabelais]

3. whats the price

is there a chart or something to look at?

[Elbowroom]

5. i can give some info

Sharon Tube's scrap surcharge went from $240/ton to $340/ton this month and will increase again next month. Copperweld is about to increase their carbon charges by $30/ton, which would end up being at $155/ton. These are charges that didn't even really exist two years ago with these two companies. These are charges that are thrown on top of the regular steel price, not the actual price....if didn't catch that.

[Sporadicus]

4. World Demand is a Factor

China has developed quite an appetite for steel recently, owing to economic expansion. Along with increased consumption in China of obvious commodities like oil, they're also snarfing up ~1/3 of the world's production of cement - creating some shortages in the US and Europe.

Shortages of other raw materials, including coke, contribute to rising steel costs.

Your friend may be onto something; I confess ignorance regarding the run-up to WW II and world price & demand for steel.

[denverbill]

6. I don't think it's valid.

IMO, the reason scrap iron prices are going up is because the dollar is going down. A couple years ago, it cost $.80 to buy a euro. Today, it costs $1.20 to buy a euro. As the dollar drops more and more, scrap iron becomes cheaper for foreigners and more expensive for Americans, just like any other commodity (oil, food, gold).

Plus, I don't think war requires that same level of scrap iron usage that it might have in WWII. In WWII, we built tanks by the thousands because we lost thousands of them in war. We built ships by the hundreds because we lost hundreds in the war.

How many tanks and ships have we lost in Iraq? From what I understand, we probably haven't even lost 20 tanks. It doesn't take a lot of iron to replace that loss rate.

That being said, your friend might be right about a war being imminent, but I don't think scrap iron prices necessarily are an indicator.

[jmowreader]

12. Bombs are also made out of scrap iron

Bombs are also larger these days, especially cannon projectiles: in WWII the 75mm howitzer was pretty much the standard tube; now, the only units that use anything smaller than 155mm howitzers in their direct-support artillery battalions are light-infantry, airborne and air assault divisions, who use 105mm direct-support howitzers...and those divisions have general-support artillery battalions with 155mm howitzers.

And with our new high-tech bombers, artillery systems, etc., we can lay a lot more steel onto the enemy now than we could in World War II because the firing rate is higher now, planes carry more bombs, we have more planes and the planes fly faster so they can fly more missions in a day.

Also consider: when the enemy kills one of our tanks, we can send out a tank retriever to pick up the wreckage, ship it back to the factory and have it recycled. It won't be a complete conversion--you need to add some metal to make a new tank out of an old one--but the vehicle is not a total loss. When we drop a bomb, we don't go back out on the battlefield and pick up the pieces.

There may be a war imminent, but if you consider that we're already fighting two and running out of ordnance, this could also be a response to our elevated use of scrap iron to fight the ones we're currently in.

[treepig]

17. i thought bombs were made out of du these days

(that's depleted uranium, not democratic underground).

in any event, what is the cause and effect relationship? i.e., as scrap iron gets scarce, people go to war over it - ala the upcoming (and ongoing) oil wars?

or does the price go up because the defense contractors are stocking up behind the scenes so to say?

[jmowreader]

20. Small projectiles are made of DU

Tank rounds are made from DU because it's so hard and works so well in that application, but it's really expensive.

The Air Force has been making aerial bombs from iron for decades. All their racks are built for iron bombs, all their ballistics calculations revolve around a bomb of a certain size, and iron bombs are cheap to use.

Scrap iron is a commodity, and I think war was invented to deal with scarcity in commodities.

Oh, you'll like this: One day I was discussing chain-link fencing prices with the store manager. He said, "you know why there's a steel shortage?" (Well, I do, but let's hear your version.) "The Chinese are buying it all up. When Peak Oil hits, they're gonna corner the market on bicycles." Turns out he's a Bartcopper and I didn't even know it. He tried DU and didn't like it, so he hangs out on BC.

[treepig]

21. one problem with the chinese-scrap iron-bicycle market theory

when peak oil hits, the usa's going to have plenty of scrap iron sitting around in the form of all those freaking suv's

enough to make plenty of bicycles, i suspect.

[BigMcLargehuge]

7. My father in law said the exact same thing

he too is a farmer and scrap seller. He said he likes that he's getting 80 a ton, but not what he expects that ton will be used for.

[Warpy]

9. Look at what Bush has been doing with the country's strategic

petroleum reserves. He's been overfilling them, way above capacity, at oil that's been running over $45/bbl. He's definitely saving up for a new, big war.

I hope your farmer friend is not voting for this sack of shit. He's dangerous to all of us.

[mtnester]

10. No, he is what I call the typical middle of the road Democrat

and he has told me he will be voting for Kerry for a variety of reasons, but mostly because * is bad for the country.

[alfredo]

23. He could be planning on dumping a lot of oil onto the market before

the election.

[Eloriel]

11. I'll take you take on this

Not only does it come what I too respect as a seasoned source, those seasoned sources have a way of being darned intuitive after all those years of "experience" -- or let's just call it honed instincts if that makes some people feel less threatened by that.

George Bush is in no way done with his wars. There are still people with money which hasn't gone to the upper classes; there is still money going to the U.S. Treasury from taxpayers which hasn't yet been misappropriated into the pockets of the wealthy war profiteers and others; there is still money to be made for Carlyle and all their wealthy friends in overthrowing governments and waging unnecessary wars; he hasn't "remade the face of the Middle East" to his liking just yet (and still deludes himself that that's possible); he's not dictator yet; and he and the PNAC crowd still want their global domination/ Empire.

AND, Iran is firmly in their sites.

[TNOE]

13. An article for the mix

http://rense.com/general56/october.htm

[Eloriel]

19. Oh, God.

OMG.

They ARE just that evil, diabolical, cold-callous-and-calculating, and arrogantly, criminally self-serving.

[nefarious]

14. Economics

While the Fox propagandists are trying to sell the U.S. public the "Iran must never have nuclear weapons!" talking point, I think the current reasoning behind the scrap metal price run-up is purely economic: It takes more energy to smelt and refine raw ore than it does to reform scrap metal. With energy prices as high as they are, it's more cost and energy efficient efficient to recycle, so recycling demand goes up and prices follow.

Not that I don't think Bush* is not itching to take over Iran and their oil, I believe he is getting desperate top find a way to get an election bump from being "the war president who protects us from evil nuclear terrorists" drumbeat playing in the media.

[TX-RAT]

15. Could the fact that China has cornered the scrap market

Have anything to do with it?
Big story in the Wall Street Journal a couple of months ago, about this very thing.

[eridani]

22. According to my sales rep brother you are right

He sells industrial fixtures, and galvanized steel (made from scrap) has doubled in price over the past couple of years because the Chinese are buying it.

[hang a left]

16. Now I don't know much about scrap metal........

But I wonder if this is some kind of indicator.

Kellanved (1000+ posts) Thu Aug-26-04 04:51 AM
Original message
US Air Force deploying 1,000 flyers to Iraq from Germany


SPANGDAHLEM - The US Air Force is deploying 1,000 forces to Iraq from Spangdahlem air base in Germany, a base official said Thursday.

The forces are elements of the 52nd Fighter Wing, said Air Force Colonel Dave Goldfein.

The troop re-assignment comes amid a realignment of US forces abroad that includes possible base reductions or closures in Germany.
...
http://www.expatica.com/source/site_article.asp?subchan...



http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=777849&mesg_id=777849

[cheezus]

18. I'll just cross my fingers and hope it's just China and a weak Dollar

[Green Lantern]

24. In my area

housing starts, repairs and renovations are way down and prices for existing homes are way up. Been told that it is because building materials have been flowing to Iraq at a tremendous rate.
I do know the price of lumber here is through the roof and we are a lumber producing state.

Thoughts?

[rucky]

25. Call me when the price of scrap plutonium goes up. n/t