How much would the cost of oranges rise?

[DrMath]

If we kicked out all of the illegal immigrants in this country and Americans got all their jobs, how much most expensive would produce be?

I was just over a FR and they were saying only 1-2%. What do you guys think? I figure the number will be somewhere in between! Just kiddding, of course I would belive DUers over FReepers. Sources would be good if you've seen any.

Nope, I'm not suggesting to kick them all out.

[Doctor Smith]

1. Don't know, but the US is well on its way to becoming a net importer

of food. I think that would simply accelerate the trend.

[FloridaPat]

2. I live about 100 miles from the mango groves here in Florida.

There are a lot of them. When I shop for fruit, everywhere I go the mangoes are imported from Mexico. It's cheaper to fly them in then pick them here and drive two hours to market.

Same with flowers. It would say probably all the flowers in florist shops are flown in from South America. Too expensive to grow them here.

Somewhere along the line we've hand the wool pulled over our eyes and lost something big. Maybe it's a vision of value. Cheap crappy stuff is better than anything. When I first started going to Cracker Barrell they had local crafters in their stores. Now it all comes from China.

[DrMath]

3. But the worst part is

ice cream bars keep getting smaller and more expensive. That's what bothers me! All electronics are crap too...

[whistle]

4. Well for produce fruits and vegetables there are many cost layers...

...the grower being at the very bottom of the list. To understand marketing costs in this country, you have to understand who are the prime interests involved at each step of the way in the marketing, production and distribution funnel. Lets take a dozen fresh large navel oranges that must be somehow brought from the grower (i.e. California or Florida) to the final consumer say in a NE or Midwest urban community. I'll use the latest prices I saw in the supermarket I normally shop based on the display ad I saw this morning:

consumer price in ad:.....................................$3.60 100.0%
retail profits:...............................$ .54 15.0%
retail overhead/direct costs:.................$1.08 30.0%
retail product costs:.........................$1.98 55.0%
Wholesaler/Distributor:
distributor profits:.................$ .30 15.2%
distributor overhead/direct costs:...$ .59 30.0%
transport costs/gas:.................$ .40 20.2%
wholesaler profits:........$ .10 15.0%
wholesaler overhead
/direct costs:..........$ .21 30.4%
storage/holding costs:.....$ .12 17.4%
wholesaler product costs:..$ .26 37.7%

So the actual costs (relative here) that translate out to what the producer can get, that is the farmer or orange grove owner can expect to get for his oranges would be $ .26 per dozen or a little over two cents each. From that he has to own the land, pay the upkeep of the farm, pay for water, fertilizer, insecticides, interest on the money he certainly must borrow to run things until the crop ripens and is ready for market and still eek out a profit by which to live.

The farmer must use his knowledge and decisions as well as trust nature (God) to bring a bountiful crop, the highest yield per acre, the nicest and sweetest crop possible so that he will be assured of enough revenue to cover all of his costs and make a living to support and keep his family. Who does the farmer have to exploit so that he can be sure to make a profit? Migrant labor unorganized, unprotected and vulnerable. I don't care how much the consumer pays at the top of this chain, in the system advocated by the free market, NO increased prices to consumers would ever ever trickle down to the powerless at the very bottom unless the government made sure that happens. The Bush economic policies have opened the flood gates by removing all such obligations from business at every level.

Now, Bush claims that in a free market economy consumers are king, consumers set prices. That is just plain naive. It is never the consumer. When was the last time you went to the super market and haggled over the price you would pay for a dozen oranges, or laundry detergent, or a steak, or anything? You are not allowed in this economy to do that, except in free market zones and I'm taking about roadside fruit stands or farmer's markets. The prices are set and you pay what is marked or you don't buy. You can always look for cheaper prices, but they are cheaper within a relatively tight range (+/- 5%). Look at gasoline prices recently. Yes, some stations charged $1.95 a gallon for regular, others may have been 3 to 7, even 9 cents cheaper, but the prices compared to six months earlier had gone up everywhere, no exceptions. So Bush is full of shit about his economic theory.

Here is the Bush vision in a nutshell for America. In a fair value added based economy in theory all players in the funnel get their fair share of profits and pricing. These would be sufficient to cover each of the funnel layers costs and overhead. Producers are merely chattels to the players in the funnel. The prices are dictated by those at the top and power of enforcement of their will is given by the government authorities and the military to enforce the will those in society. The true consumers are a small percentage the most privileged in the society who have entitlements based on their earnings. These consumers are determined by their station and by their contributions to the will of the state (You're either with me or against me, and if you are against me you are my enemy). The large majority of the society are given promises and are deceived into believing that they are gaining, but fear, danger and on-going threats keep them in their place. The name for this vision is fascism. George W Bush is a fascist and he is rapidly converting America into a fascist/military imperial state. Oh, as for oranges, Florida produced half of the crop they did 20 years ago and the majority of what is produced is far below in quality to what we used to grow. You in New York City or Chicago may get the best of the best, but I'll bet you pay a lot more than $3.60 per dozen. As for where those are grown, how about Brazil? Maybe it's South/East Africa, or even Southern China. If you say, "Well so what, it doesn't matter. I'm only interested in getting the best tasting, sweetest orange I can and I make enough money that paying 50 cents or even $1.00 apiece is worth it."

Well, enjoy it while you can comrades, but I am afraid that it won't last forever, because you see if you think that way, you are part of the problem. So am I. I love strawberries and the best I've ever tasted are only available during the middle two weeks in June and are in southern Ontario Canada. I can't get them in Florida, but I'd be willing to fly or drive up at least once some June to again taste them before I pass over.

[Blue Wally]

7. Retail profits

You might be a bit high on the retail profits. Historically, grocery supermarkets have operated on a very slim profit margin and make their profits in volume of goods sold.

[whistle]

8. Check the stock trades of publicly held supermarket chains....

...they are making close to 15% profits (usually shown as 6% to 8% after tax) and so that has to be the average margin. The volume measures you refer to have to do with profits per sq ft of retail floor space where they turn over products rapidly (something quite different from price mark-ups). They still must add a margin to the cost of the products based on expected turnover. High movers (dairy) have lower mark-ups, while medium movers (meat, cereals, baked-goods, deli, etc) have higher mark-ups. The slow movers are marked up accordingly, but if too slow by chain standards are simply dropped. I really like IBC cream soda which was selling for $4 to $5 for six 12oz bottles, but it's hard to find because the local supermarket was not selling enough to justify the shelf space. They probably were making 40% mark-up at those prices. But they dropped it. I can get it at the local wholesale club for $20.00 for four six packs wrapped together, but that's far more than I'd want to have sitting around in my pantry. So, I buy Canada Dry ginger ale instead.

Good comment, but I think I'm close on the relative numbers that let me make the point about letting consumers pay a few cents more so that extra money in the price will trickle down to the lowest levels of labor. That just doesn't happen. One more illustration to drive that point home, if you get a 10% raise in your salary/wages, do you automatically pass that windfall on down the line to your housekeeper, the babysitter, the lawn-care guy, the electric company, etc.? Not voluntarily. If the raise is large enough in real numbers (i.e you go from $200,000 salary say to $220,000) maybe your next automobile purchase will be the Infinity Q45 instead of the Nissan Altima you own now. Or you'll jump right out and get that $10,000 HDTV you've been wanting so you can see the spit fly from the NFL players when they get hit in a hard tackle. That will also depend on you're significant other going along with your desire. If you are really anal retentive you won't even give your teenagers a raise in their allowance without demanding something in return, unless of course you are a great dad/mom, which most DU'ers with kids are, IMHO. :headbang:

[Blue Wally]

10. Profits

The profit percentages in the newspapers are return on investment, not return on sales. Albertson's net profit margin in 2003 was 1.6%. A&P lost money in 2003. Kroger was 1.6%. Pathmark was 0.3%. Safeway was 2.3%. 7-11 was 0.8%. Whole Foods was 3.2% (hey if you want organic, ya gotta pay for it). Winn-Dixie was 1.4%.


For comparison, look at the "middle men". Anheuser Busch was 14.7%. Pepsi was 13.2%.

[Cleita]

5. Well, considering that the grape pickers in my area are

unionized, (thanks to Cesar Chavez), and make a living hourly wage, the price of wine went down instead of up. So, go figure.

[Deja Q]

6. This is too funny, so are they...

They all saw my post yesterday that was parroting a question I found at a personals' site (yet many responses I got made it clear that the personals' site was the more relevant place :crazy: for such a thought provoking question. :eyes: )

I couldn't care any less about the prices of oranges. It's a washed up fruit in a state ran by a nut.

And why should the freepers care about jobs? They support * who has openly applauded corporate offshoring while spitting on American workers at the same time. Besides, how much money is orange picking worth to them? Is the job worth having at all? (which then opens a separate discussion...)

[haele]

9. My guess...

Oranges will probably go up around 5% to 10% in costs - as will other produce that requires a large amount of people "picking" as part of the harvest. Most illegals in the orchards get paid a day what the hourly minimum wage for the average legal worker is entitled to, works far longer hours that the legal worker is allowed to work without additional compensation, and does not cost the business that hires the illegal all those taxes, fees, and other profit cutting burdens that a legal employee costs it.

One will find that produce from South America will be less expensive than produce from California, Texas, or Florida will become.

I suspect the cost of fresh produce will rise to the costs that consumers in Japan, Great Britain, and most of northern Europe pay.

As a side, much of the additional costs of getting rid of illegal labor can be recouped through better farming practices and management - but there is still the problem of getting rid of entrenched, "traditional" attitude to the extra labor required in seasonal farming, much of that attitude having come from the eras of "the company camp", plantation farming(and its ties with slavery)and sharecropping. And I, personally, can't think of how to change that.

Haele