If Bush doesn't get a 15 point bounce from the convention, he fails.

[Cat Atomic]

I haven't heard any predictions for a Bush convention bounce. Has anyone else?

I mean- I remember hearing repeatedly that if Kerry didn't get a 15 point bounce, then the convention was a failure. I assume that same logic goes for the Republican convention.

Am I doomed to disappointment and confusion yet again?

[Kira]

1. Actually they are now saying

that there is only a few percentages to get for either side. CNN said yesterday basically everyone has made up their mind so there won't be a bounce at all for him. I think it is always a good strategy for them to set the bar very low. That way he may achieve it. In this case I think it is probably true that there isn't much bump room. I saw Terry McCauliff(sp?) a couple of weeks before the convention say that they were going to get a ten point bump. I thought that wasn't possible for Kerry either.

[greekspeak]

6. I think this outcome was predicted here on DU more than once.

"Kerry is a loser without a HUGE bounce." Lather Rinse Repeat Puke ad infinitum

Then, when it is time for Shrub to be held to the same standard "everyone has made up there mind so there won't be a bounce for him at all.

And again the "librulmedia" will get away with it. Covering their Poster Boy's chimpy butt for every outcome.

[lapfog_1]

2. I've already heard

that Bush shouldn't really expect a bounce, no more than 2 or 3
percent. That this election cycle doesn't really produce bounces
because of the polarization (where was this analysis for the DNC?).

So the answer to that last question is YES.

[WindRavenX]

4. correct

Undecided voters are usually responsible for the so-called "bounce" affect; and as you mentioned, because voters are polarized so greatly, very little bounce can be expected. This is why Kerry did not get a bounce, but more people saw Kerry in favorable light. That's why the DNC was a big success IMO because people got to know who Kerry was.
Bush is not going to get either.

[Nicholas_J]

3. The predictions I have read are

that Bush will ses no more of a bounce than Kerry did andthat currrent polls are just things settling in again after the effects of selecting Edwards and the Convention, as in the race for the Democratic nomination last year, the real run for the finish will not start until Labor Day.

[Victimerican]

5. According to e-c prediction, he doesn't need much...

http://electoral-vote.com/">Electoral Vote Predictor

I've been checking this every day since I found out about it :> Bush only needs to win over 1 more state, and if everyone votes the way the polls say they will, it's his to win. (Oh, and pay no attention to the California one, that's either an outlier, or something's rotten in the state of Cali.)