FL, GA, SC and NC DUers - please keep an eye on Hurricane Frances

[SW FL Dem]

The track keeps moving west. The latest track has it hitting the east coast of FL just north of Lake Okeechobee by Saturday, but all of Florida, parts of Georgia and the Carolinas could be affected. Frances is now a big category 3 and could strengthen. Some good sites to check are below.

http://weatherunderground.com
http://flhurricane.com
http://noaa.gov

[Skip Intro]

1. They almost always turn more northward than originally forecast

Almost, not always, but almost always.

Looks like its gonna hit somewhere along the south east coast.

I'm in Charleston, and this one does have me a little nervous.

[watercolors]

2. Watching closely

We are not ready for another, sick to my stomach thinking about it! I hope by wed. we have a better idea of where it is heading, I hope out to sea! We will just have to prepare again if not.

We are in central Fl on the coast, inland about 20 miles. Know our house is strong, built by the new guidelines for hurricanes, but really don;t care to test it!

[shtinkycat]

6. hi watercolors

we're on the central Fl coast, about 4 BLOCKS in from the ocean. I'm sending vibrations for that hurricane to go out to sea. ;(

[Skip Intro]

3. Yikes - look at this

(note the "not for planning purposes" note)

[Vickers]

5. Man, that orange line would suck for me

That looks like Palm Beach County.

:(

[MisterP]

30. the blue line goes through Palm Beach Co.; the orange's headed for Orlando

which already got pummelled by Charley!

[SW FL Dem]

7. That's why I posted!

It could change, but the commentary and the models as of the 8 pm update don't turn this thing out to sea. We'll know more in the next few days. Luckily, we get updates on these sites every 3 hours.

[soup]

37. sorry, please disregard.

posted in wrong spot.

[Endangered Specie]

4. Im already ahead of you on that one.

[ewagner]

8. Take a look at this model

It has the probabilities highlighted.

<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604P+GIF/302053P.gif>

That being said....be careful Florida DUers..........

[SayitAintSo]

9. Thanks - in SC here ... We are already preparing for the worst.

I work for a major SC E & G utility ... (we just got some of our line crew back from Florida - are currently recovering from Gaston ( @ 125K outages ... not too bad). But this new one is creeping us out ... we are having Hugo flashbacks ... fingers crossed ...

[Corgigal]

10. Gaston

kicked our ass here. Had a tree fall on the house and some roof damage. I wouldn't even be able to get the house ready if Francis turns our way (Charleston SC Area).

I would just pack up. NO way could this house go through Hugo, a tornado, Gaston and then a Cat 4/5. However we have insurance for it all.

[SayitAintSo]

11. Good luck to you ... Let's hope it blows out to sea

This thing looks like a monster though - I fear for our coast line. Beautiful charleston.

[Katarina]

12. Flagler County, Florida here

We are watching this closely. My poor mom is freaking out. She's in Volusia and she's packing pictures up tonight. I was on the phone with her for an hour trying to get her to calm down. I'm just going to wait and see for right now. Not really much reason for me to go out and buy anything. If it comes even remotely near us we are evacuated as we are in a manufactured home. We made it through Charley fine, just a couple of pieces of siding blown off but I'm getting out of here if this thing is near.

Stay safe everyone and keep track of this thing. It could be bad.

[mandyky]

13. Was Frances a cat 4 at one time?

My son watches the weather channel and he told me that a day or 2 ago.
He's only 7 though! LOL

[SW FL Dem]

17. He's right, Frances was a 4 and is likely

to become one again. The 11 pm updates are inconclusive. The next full update is at 5 am EST.

[mandyky]

18. Good to know!

He is mildly autistic, and really obsesses about the weather and weather channel.

[qanda]

35. Cool!

My daughter, who is six, would rather watch the Weather Channel than cartoons. She always lets me know when some weather event is getting ready to occur. Good to hear that she's not alone.

[NRaleighLiberal]

14. 1996...Fran...2004...Frances????

Believe me, those of us in Raleigh who remembers Hurricane Frah (who could forget? we lost nearly 100 trees in our yard) are keeping a close eye on Frances! What a summer - we've been clipped by quite a few of these storms - including a day of rain and wind from Gaston.

[BlackVelvetElvis]

15. I remember you guys got nailed.

I did some work for insurance adjusters after that occurred. I was very busy.

[Vox_Reason]

25. Fran, Floyd, and now Frances? Not likin' these "F" storms in NC...

I've got a bad feeling since Gaston came through and dropped so much precip on us yesterday here in NC. That saturates the ground and makes for a very risky situation with additional hurricane-scale high winds and flooding coming through a few days later. Tends to uproot trees with much greater ease.

Keep an eye on this one, southeast DU'ers... This one could be a real mess. I guess it's part of the price we pay for living in such a nice area of the country--we get to be the "chin" of America for the fists of seemingly 80% of the hurricanes that hit the US.

Let's take the necessary precautions, and remember to be good neighbors, particularly for those who have limited mobility or other physical challenges.

[abburdlen]

31. You got that right.

I'm here in Wilmington, NC. I'm trying to remember the last landfalling hurricane that did NOT come right through here.

[mandyky]

16. BTW Gaston is strengthening

It moved from tropical depression to tropical storm and is over the water - it is headed toward New England.

[SW FL Dem]

19. the 11 pm update shows a further shift to the west

and a landfall on the central coast of Florida sometime Sat. For the sake of the DUers that have turned off their tvs, please keep this kicked.

[fishnfla]

20. people are wigging out around here already

edgy after charley,i guess, but its way to soon to panic. These things turn out to sea more often than not, here's hoping.

[fishnfla]

21. bad buzz kick

heard today that the 5 day forecasts are new this year, dont count on 'em, they changed that one thrice today. latest has it right over our place at 130mph, sat at 2 pm. (high tide)
Thursday evening is the kicker

*keeping fingers crossed* not panicking yet, but cops were at home depot this day for crowd control

[Lex]

22. We just got totally soaked by the remants of Gaston here in central NC.

Can't believe we might get smacked again--by Frances.

Wherever it comes in ashore it will be awful if it stays at the strength it is now.

And it can travel far, far inland. Remember Hugo really screwed up Charlotte, and Fran in '96 tore through central NC.

:sigh:

[KoKo]

33. Yes....and we've had way to many hurricanes here in NC, lately and

remember "Fran" if you were down here, then? The surprise when it hit Raleigh, Chapel Hill, Durham and devasted us with trees down and poweroutages forever!

[mandyky]

23. Kick

[Shopaholic]

24. I live about an hour away from Myrtle Beach

in Florence. We got 6 inches of rain from Gaston over the weekend and it's raining here again as I speak. The last thing we need is a hurricane headed our way when the ground is already saturated--trees will be tumbling down left and right if that happens. I've really nervous about this one, but I've been nervous about every Hurricane that headed in our direction since Hugo! That one made a believer out of me!!!

[mandyky]

26. BTW - Frances was back up to cat 4

this morning when I was watching the WC

[mandyky]

27. Moving 15 mph

landfall time still iffy - an 18 to 24 hour difference between if it hits FL or turns NE. Now approaching Puerto Rico.

[phish420]

28. Got my tracking chart out

Looking like Daytona right now, but these things change...Im in Orlando now, and we just got slammed...cant really afford another one, especially with all the debris on the ground from 2 weeks ago...tree limbs and stuff ALL OVER still. These things will be missiles if we get this massive storm.

[KoKo]

34. Last report I saw...looked like Boca Raton...it's moved North? ...

Sounds like it will go into SC again, then...like Hugo...:-( Datona isn't due for another one for awhile...just my "psychic hurricane radar speaking, here."

[Ripley]

29. F names are bad for my parents...

Fran and Floyd gave them problems in recent years. I hope this F named storm does not hit them again...

[KoKo]

32. I always thank DU'ers for links and was on noaa.gov and Weather

Underground today, checking in...

We are all biting our nails over this newest hurricane...

[sal]

36. kick

beat it, Frankie

[althecat]

38. Watch our Daytona Beach... Scoop Is On The Case

This one looks like a monster



Full report here...
http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0409/S00017.htm

[KoKo]

39. Hey Al...aren't you that New Zealand Guy.....? Or, am I thinking of

someone else? Glad you're onto this...we need lots of help...I think our Cable "Weather Channel" has turned to Bush Camp and we aren't getting the "truth" of the news about Francis because it might conflict with Repug Convention...sheesh :tinfoilhat:

;-)'s

[DrWeird]

40. Pompei, please keep an eye on that volcano.

Sorry, just thought it was kind of a silly thread title.

[stavka]

41. We really need to track down this hurricane thing....

I mean, bronze age people never had to deal with such an insidious threat...how can we be expected to?

[Misinformed01]

42. Those bronze aged palm huts weren't that hard to rebuild

When you study history, try to think about the implications of change over those centuries, dear.

Stephanie

[stavka]

43. ... i try to think of a lot of things

... i try to think of a lot of things

Things like, "gee, my house gets blown down* every time I build here, maybe I should not live here."


* Insert local predictable semi-annual disaster

Public Service Message: Plenty of places to live in this country where your home won't disappear do to a lack of God. There really are; and they are not any more devoid of employment than those meccas like Florida and California...

It sucks when you home is destroyed by factors beyond your control, but if you put yourself in harms way - its hard for those who have to pay for yet another rebuilding of the "LA/California foothills area" for example

[Misinformed01]

44. Yeah...like those dumbasses that rebuild after tornadoes

all over the midwest.

Pardon me, but I have been wondering...could you please direct me to an area that doesn't have natural disaster type stuff?

Thanks so much for your help,

Steph

[KoKo]

46. Steph...maybe you could have a little more sympathy with those going

through this. If you've never lived through a hurricane you can't imagine the trauma...

Who needs to hear...why are you living where you are living. There isn't a place in the US today that is immune from these weather disasters.

Did you see the photos and stories from our Richmond DU'ers? Why should they expect to be flooded out in flash floods. Did they just pick the wrong place to live?

Have you been so lucky to pick the perfect place. Most of us live where we do because of Jobs and trying to make a living to pay our bills. We buy what we can afford and live where we can afford. Are we supposed to be blamed for our choices? :shrug:

[stavka]

48. Hey, actually - I think I'm the poster you should be mad at...

[stavka]

47. In my life time, I don't think my state has....

I'll research that....but most don't

It really seems other than Rep Plains states in recent years, and vacation spots (that often include real people by accident) are the only places that get aid.

I'd be the first to light my own house on fire if the earthquake induced lava was in the area as defined by FEMA - it's a joke, it pumps federal dollars into FEMA bidding controlled contractors - it's our own IRAQ

[KoKo]

51. Fema only gives loans...you have to qualify and be able to pay back

the loans. Most people can't qualify who live in areas where they don't have money for insurance for even their belongings. Yes...states get lots of aid...but it gets spread out and many folks on the poverty line or in poverty don't get a penny. I'm sorry you're bitter thinking that when a disaster hits the feds come with buckets o' dollars handing it out to everyone who lines up. It just ain't true.

I hope you never have to go through any of this. If you ever do you will maybe learn compassion...:-(

[KoKo]

52. Weather Channel said if it slows it hits Savannah/SC Coast...11:00 coming

up soon.

[Misinformed01]

57. Excuse me? The upper midwest has no natural disasters

that you can think of?

Let me help you out, honey:

Specifically Michigan, OK?

Detroit's killer heat wave of 1936

By George Cantor / The Detroit News

When Detroiters began to die on the first day, the list was easily contained on the front page of the paper. Dora Brady, 89, in her home on Sanford. Nathan Derby, 97, in his home on West Philadelphia. A worker at Dodge Main, collapsing on the line. A man working in a laundry, another in a restaurant downtown. A night watchman found dead when the office was opened. An elderly man found in a field at Telegraph and Ann Arbor Trail. Another beneath the street sign at Burlingame and 14th.

http://info.detnews.com/history/story/index.cfm?id=134&category=life

OK, now...you want me to look up tornadoes? Or are you just ready to move now? Hey! Wait! It's Fall! Let's see if we can find some juicy ice storm stories to give you something to look forward to! ;)

Steph

[mmonk]

45. Some projections now (computer models @ 8pm)

are moving tracks towards Charleston now(where my cousin lives). During Fran, I got hit hard here in Raleigh, so I'm tracking it. Hurricanes are a way of life for NC as well as Florida.

[strategery blunder]

49. Updated map, good luck

[mandyky]

50. Bahamas bracing for Frances overnite

according to weather channel.

Some evacuations called for in Palm Beach. Shelters will be opening in FL tomorrow..

[mandyky]

53. This is gonna be a bad one, folks!

They are now predicting this could become a cat 5 !!

[eleny]

54. Latest image from Central Fla Hurricane Center's site

[althecat]

55. Latest NASA Modis picture

[SW FL Dem]

56. Unfortunately, I think you are right

The track is still very much up in the air, the bottom line is that ll of Florida needs to get prepared.