The GOP in 2008 (are f*cked)

[liberalpragmatist]

Regardless of the outcome in this year's race, the GOP is going to face serious problems in 2008. The problem is currently divided between the classical conservatives, the libertarians, social moderates-liberals/economic conservatives, the anti-tax neocon wing, and the hardline right.

Even if Bush is re*elected, things aren't going to go well for the GOP. I truly believe that much of the country is trending Blue and I honestly believe that if Bush somehow wins this election, if we stay organized and vigorous we can deny Bush and his minions any *achievements* especially if we can get the Senate. Bush will be in for 4 years of hell if he wins. And no, I'm not saying this to lull us into complacency - I DESPERATELY want Kerry to win. I'm just saying that I think if we stay organized, the alternative won't be as bad as we worry.

So after 4 years of hell or 4 years of Kerry, the GOP will be competing for the nomination with all the party's divisions wide open.

Who's going to run? Bill Frist, Rudy Giuliani, Chuck Hagel, Mitt Romney, maybe Bill Owens of Colorado, maybe Kay Baily Hutchison of Texas, maybe McCain, possibly Jeb - although I think that after 8 years of one Bush, the family will be so unpopular as to make that impossible. If Kerry wins then the family will be discredited. If Jeb's going to run, 2012 may be his year - 2008 will be too soon, methinks.

I think Giuliani may take the nomination - he'll forgo a race for governor or senator in 2006 to concentrate on an '08 presidential run. He'll have to bury his social liberalism (pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-affirmative action, anti-gun) under hard-right militarist positions, as he's already done. Or he may pull a GHW Bush and flip-flop on abortion at least and gun rights. He'll have to hope that gay rights will have faded as an issue.

I used to think it'd be Frist, but his disastrous heading of the senate will probably hurt him. Hagel and McCain may have shots, but McCain, despite his current whoring for Bush, has burned too many bridges in the party and if Kerry wins, he may be too conciliatory with Kerry (ala Lieberman with Bush) to be credible to most Republican primary voters. Hagel might get it (which wouldn't be a bad thing - hopefully it would pull the GOP back towards being a more mainstream, pro-mainstreet business center-right party), but the party's deifying of Rudy will I think help Giuliani get it.

As for Romney, despite his pandering to the right, I think he's gonna be eclipsed by Giuliani amongst the social moderates/liberals and the conservatives will denounce him as a Massachusetts liberal.

But it's not going to come nicely. There will be open warfare within the party. Maybe even a split if Giuliani gets the nod, with hard-right social conservatives declaring a "Values Party" and running a third-party candidate.

ON EDIT: I'm aware that many of you are saying that if Bush is reelected, there won't *BE* a 2008 election - oh well, I don't believe that that's the case, if you do, let's just agree to disagree. But I'd prefer that you refrain from posting in that case, since I'm trying to see what other figures people think might be nominated.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. Read Ruy Tiexera's "The Emerging Democratic Majority"

America is a BLUE NATION in the making.

The GOP will have difficulty winning from now on because their White, Southern, Right Wing, Facsists who control the party will be out of the mainstream of a more diverse and Democratic America.

[liberalpragmatist]

3. I have

It's excellent.

The only qualification I have is that we can't become complacent and we have to develop a clearer ideology and vision in order to firmly establish that majority.

And we need to keep an eye on younger voters. Most youth I know are pretty liberal, but in some ways they're more libertarian, so we maybe she run as bigger champions of small business and entrepreneurship while making clear we're not in favor of corruption and abuse by big business.

[tom_paine]

4. Which is why the Busheviks have installed rigged Totalitarianism

on all levels, because they KNOW this yet still wish to exercise continual unchecked power.

The Nazis and Commies were also out of step with the Mainstream Values of their nations. It didn't matter. By force and Propaganda, they cahnged the Mainstream Values to monstrous, callous evil.

As the Busheviks are in the process of doing right now.

[tedoll78]

5. We're seeing the effects of demographic change already.

Flordia has seen over 1 million new minority residents in the past four years - more than 50% of the new residents that they've gotten in that time frame.

Arizona and Nevada are super-close also because of this.

Once we lock-up the Northeast, the West Coast, the Desert Southwest, and Florida, we win. Easily. Every time. In fact, we'll be able to begin pulling the country further and further leftward with the power that we're going to have.

I think the GOP realizes this, and that this is why they absolutely must win this year. Without a win here, they will go a whole 18 years without a single Supreme Court nominee. With a win, they'll at least as a consolation have control of the Supreme Court for the next 20 years.

[tom_paine]

2. Nazis don't fracture (at least, not on the surface)

I'm sorry. To be fair I'll say Totalitarians don't fracture

I hope you're right.

I KNOW you're wrong.

You keep thinking like this is the Old America. It isn't. That place is GONE and time will tell if it is possible to restore again.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. I'll be gentle

we don't win, there is not going to be an election in 2008