Latest NOAA GFS Forecast For Frances - Some dramatic changes.

[althecat]

I have just had a look at the latest NOAA forecast path for Frances. There is good and bad news. Firstly it is slowing down and turning north. This means no Florida landfall although the fringes of the storm still batter the coast. According to the model the hurricane then follows the coast up battering the carolinas and finally, still seemingly close to hurricane strength starts heading up Cheasepeake Bay. From what I can see it ends up dousing NYC - presumably by then only a tropical storm - on Wednesday or Thursday.

From the look of things by lingering up the Florida coast it manages to retain its strength and spread its damage across a far larger area...

Notably this forecast is greatly at odds to the latest hurricane advisory which has the storm heading ashore in mid to south Florida.

al

[MirrorAshes]

1. Link please?!?

This is first I've heard of a major northern turn. Details??

[LosinIt]

2. I just check noaa.gov and it still says florida

[TheWatcher]

3. I just checked as well and the 5 AM Update said nothing about this.

It would be helpful if you could post a link to this information.

[soup]

4. Thank you.

I was just about to ask the same.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 020926
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

>snip<
FRANCES IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH
...20 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE LARGE CORE OF HURRICANE FRANCES WILL
BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS MORNING...AND
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/020926.shtml?

[freetobegay]

5. It helps to post accurate information!

5:45 am update

[oscar111]

8. GFS only one of 7+ models..Composite of all is most accurate, history show

history shows.

called the "consensus' track, from about 4 models, not 7 as i mistyped. NHC is often close to this consensus track, adding human judgement into it.

the re above me has the correct latest path from NHC. FLA better evacuate if possible, areas that have had evacuation warnings.

[MirrorAshes]

6. You know some of us are taking this very, very seriously.

And posting questionable info with no link is really, really aggrivating.

[TheWatcher]

9. Agreed.

I have family in the projected path, and I could not agree with that statement more.

We are all hoping for the best, but we need acurate information.

[Zero Division]

7. That's probably just one particular computer model

Look at this map of several different models for example:



There are some models that predict a northern turn, and I guess the overall strike probability comes from a sort of average of all the models taken together.

But I could be mistaken.

I certainly hope the forecasts are wrong and it misses land entirely.

[oscar111]

11. Models merged in best "consensus" track

called GUNA.

my re above tells more. GUNA merges 4 models . NHC usually close to the GUNA consensus track.

storm2K site.. google that ... is best forum.

[kayell]

10. Strik probabilities 5 AM do not back your story up

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIASPFAT1+shtml/020831.shtml?
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM AST THU SEP 02 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST SUN SEP 5 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

24.6N 76.3W 46 X X X 46 SAVANNAH GA X X X 10 10
25.6N 78.0W 15 14 X 1 30 CHARLESTON SC X X X 7 7
26.6N 79.5W X 17 4 2 23 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 4 4
MUCM 214N 779W 1 X X 1 2 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 X 2 3 KEY WEST FL X 2 5 4 11
MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 3 4 MARCO ISLAND FL X 3 9 5 17
MYMM 224N 730W 99 X X X 99 FT MYERS FL X 2 10 5 17
MYSM 241N 745W 74 X X X 74 VENICE FL X 1 8 7 16
MYEG 235N 758W 45 X X X 45 TAMPA FL X X 8 9 17
MYAK 241N 776W 24 3 1 X 28 CEDAR KEY FL X X 3 12 15
MYNN 251N 775W 28 5 X X 33 ST MARKS FL X X X 12 12
MYGF 266N 787W 2 21 1 1 25 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 10 10
MARATHON FL X 5 6 3 14 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 9 9
MIAMI FL X 12 6 2 20 PENSACOLA FL X X X 5 5
W PALM BEACH FL X 12 7 3 22 MOBILE AL X X X 3 3
FT PIERCE FL X 7 10 4 21 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2
COCOA BEACH FL X 3 12 5 20 GULF 29N 85W X X 1 10 11
DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 9 9 18 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6
JACKSONVILLE FL X X 2 12 14 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM FRI
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
C FROM 2PM FRI TO 2AM SAT
D FROM 2AM SAT TO 2AM SUN
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SUN
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

[oscar111]

12. forward speed also seems faster, not slower

landfall on sat morning, .. was previously given as sat night. So it seems at first glance. Correct me if i am wrong on this.

This is not windspeed, but forward motion i refer to.

The path change i noticed is that it is to go a teeny bit more to the west and south. But all still in FL. Hits the middle level of the penin., goes up FL. , almost out into the Gulf at the panhandle root, not quite, then up into yecccch Georgia.

{is Tampa the bay i see across from where the hurr. will hit on the east coast of FL? I think it is, not sure. Actually, the hit will be a bit south of that bay's level, ..will hit not the west coast mind you, but the east coast}.

I advise all who go to the NHC site .. google National Hurricane Center..., to print what you want and get off the site fast as possible, to let others get on. Dont tie up the servers unnecessairily. People are scared to death and all want to see the maps at that site. Same goes for the forum at storm2K. Dont post just now about anything not relevant to Frances. Wait a week.