Frances is weakening!!!!!!

[Zell in Hell]

:-)

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/

[annxburns]

1. Careful, okay?

Hurricanes often weaken a bit before they strengthen.
Has to do with the Gulf Stream. They hit that body of warm water and ramp up. (Happened with Andrew)

[flordehinojos]

2. i think i heard the weather caster say that sometime happens right

before it makes landfall.

[nostamj]

3. Charley went from 2 to 4

in less than an hour. wait and see. there are no sure things with hurricanes.

[stavka]

4. I thought we were done bashing France?

[are_we_united_yet]

12. Ha Funny!

:)

[jackieforthedems]

5. I Hope And Pray So!!!

The last one was enough. The Floridians don't need any more trouble.

[slutticus]

6. It could just be in an Eyewall Replacement Cycle...

....it could suddenly strengthen right before landfall.


Please don't be fooled

[Cheswick2.0]

8. cycle can be even stronger

An eyewall replacement cycle occurs when the outer eyewall weakens the inner eyewall by robbing it of "needed moisture and momentum," he writes in the National Hurricane Center's Frequently Asked Questions about hurricanes guide. Without these necessary ingredients to grow, the inner eyewall will collapse. The outer eyewall then becomes the dominant eyewall, even though it's larger, and the replacement cycle is nearly complete.

The final phase of the cycle is for the new, larger eyewall to begin to contract. As this happens, any weakening that had occurred when the inner eyewall was replaced is almost always regained as the new eyewall contracts.

In some cases, Landsea writes, a hurricane coming out of an eyewall replacement cycle can be even stronger. This is what happened with Hurricane Andrew as it was nearing the Florida coast. It was at its strongest at landfall, right at the end of an eyewall replacement cycle.
http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/2003-11-15-eyewall-replacement_x.htm

[slutticus]

10. Yes...

...and they are impossible to predict.

[Jacobin]

7. Less convection at night

No telling what will happen yet. Stay careful everyone.

[Renew Deal]

13. It's passed directly over land.

Even a little bit throws it off.

[ikojo]

9. Well, what do you expect from something with FRANCE in its name? nt

[Cheswick2.0]

11. yeah, it might surrender before it hits Palm Beach