Is election 2004 going to lead to the birth of the third party?

[LostInAnomie]

I was thinking about it today and I think that regardless of the turnout of the election 2004 is going to be the turning point in third party politics.

If * loses it is going to fracture the republican party forever. The old time conservatives are going to blame the religious fundamentalists, and neocons causing a splintering of the party.

If Bush wins who will run in 2008 for the Repubs? The stars of the party are all moderates McCain, Rudy, Ahnold are would all be unpalatable to the religious right which runs the party. All a democrat would have to do is make gay marriage an issue and the fundies won't turn out. This means that they are going to have to nominate a Santorumesque candidate which by then nobody will vote for.

If Kerry loses there is not a doubt in my mind that the we are going to be splintered. Infighting is going to erupt between the many factions of the party and it will be hard to put back together.

If Kerry wins I think that the different factions of the party are going to push and pull him in so many directions that when he can't appease them all they will break off.

Coupling all this together I sincerely think that within the next 10 year the two party system is going to break down. I personally am in favor of this but I am sure other are not.

What does anyone else think?

[drumwolf]

1. Not until we ditch our current "winner-take-all" system

with something like Instant Runoff Voting or a parliamentary system.

[Tamyrlin79]

4. Let's have

IRV voting for Senate and President and proportional voting for the House. That gives the third parties a means of getting started.

[Ruffhowse]

2. I believe Jeb Bush will run in 2008, and he is well positioned to unite

the repugs. Whether the country can handle a third Bush presidency is another story. That might just be too much for the electorate to handle. Too much like a real monarchy.

[aquart]

3. Jeb has a criminal wife and indicted children.

Can't wait.

Oh, he has a zipper problem, too.

[LostInAnomie]

5. He was too deeply involved in the 200 election scandel...

... that coupled with his family, and our sides hate of the Bush name would do him in for sure.

[coloradodem2005]

12. I don't think that Jeb would be elected in 2008 for many reasons.

The Monarchy one that you mentioned, the fact that the first two Bush Presidencys were disasterous and many will not want to have another Bush in the WH.

[leftofthedial]

6. zero chance

the status quo controls the political outcome in our country.

all this hullabaloo is just circus distractions.


"The illusion of freedom will continue as long as it’s profitable to continue the illusion. At the point where the illusion becomes too expensive to maintain, they will just take down the scenery, they will pull back the curtains, they will move the tables and chairs out of the way and you will see the brick wall at the back of the theater."
Frank Zappa

[murielm99]

7. I don't believe we will be splintered.

We are very united, and I believe we will stay that way. If we were to lose, which I think unlikely, we will remain united. Many things will have to be fought out in Congress and the courts.

When Kerry wins, he will still need our support. It will be an uphill battle for him against the media, and Congress. But I think we can begin to make some inroads into the repuke majority in Congress, too.

I think the repugs are already split, although we may not see much of it publicly. The regular conservatives are not happy with the neocons and the fundies. When they lose, expect some years of disarray for them. That is what happened after Nixon, but it did not take them long to come back.

We do not have the right conditions at this time for a strong third party. I think we would need massive economic and social upheaval. I just don't see it happening.

[sidestreamer]

8. The repubs won't fracture unless the loss is crippling, and I doubt we'll

blow them away in any election where we don't already dominate. You may have the occasional Buchananite or Constitutionalist attempt a split, but the biggest opportunity for them dividing - the rise of the Libertarian Party - is on the verge of falling off the national stage with their increasingly dissapointing voter turnout.

[LostInAnomie]

10. If Rudy, Arnold, or McCain get the nod in 2008

There is no way the fundies will turn out. They won't take the chance of a "Fag Lover" being elected. They would run a third party candidate like Roy Moore and once they unite into a separate entity I don't think they would leave it.

[sidestreamer]

11. You know I haven't thought of that

But think of it as another Bush Sr. who wavered by imposing new taxes, a blasphemy for the staunch fiscal Republicans. They didn't show up to support Sr. and Clinton was able to win. Not too far ahead of this, we had Newt Ginrich come in and everyone was rallied again...

[LostInAnomie]

14. There is a difference between 41 and 43*

41 didn't rely on any individual group to bring him through. He had is fiscal cons, his hawkish cons, and his fundy cons. He could run the risk of offending one slightly to pull in the other two.

43* is completely dependent on the dominionists. He doesn't care for the fiscal conservatives he only plays them lip service when the election season come around. If the repubs nominate anyone short of a zealot like Santorum or Delay I just don't think the fundies will turn out. I would be incredibly hard for them to groom up another to take *'s throne.

[Sirveri]

9. Our system was not set up to promote third parties.

Basically we choose Stability over representation. Unfortunately fucking Congress decided to give up a large chunk of their real power to the Presidency. If they had in fact decided to retain much of their power then this wouldn't really be much of a issue. Besides, even with third parties it's always one coalition or another. So in the end it generally still boils down toa two party system. It's just that those parties have differant flavors.

[Sugarbleus]

13. I agree that the way we vote, our system, is FUBAR ...that has to change

but besides that, I'm ALL for third and fourth parties. I don't know if I'll live long enough to see such a thing "grow up" but I think it's needed.

There are sooooo many stripes under one Dem tent....most likely the same thing is happening in the republican party as well.

It does seem like a monumental task though, considering our constituional form of government et al.

Still, I don't feel like we have enough choice with just two parties; it's very frustrating.

I'm not a scholar in matters of government/political science so I'm just throwing this out there. If we stayed with two parties, why couldn't an individual/politician claim allegiance to two ideologies at once...like Social Democrat or Green Democrat or Social Libertarian or Liberal Republican (as some do)...something like that??? I mean, if they just lay it out like that then people can make a distinction and understand more clearly where that person stood on particular issues. Instead of lumping all dems as liberals and all republicans as conservatives. Just wondering...

[Cat Atomic]

15. It's really up to Kerry.

If he loses, I don't think it'll fracture the Democratic Party one bit. I think we'll be in the same situation we're in now: with everyone to the left of John McCain pooling their efforts to oust our little George Mussolini.

If Kerry wins and then ignores his base, then it'll definately splinter, and rightly so. I don't think he can govern like Clinton if he wants to have a shot in 2008.

[LostInAnomie]

16. I don't know I think it will be hard to hold us all together.

I think the moderate dems are going to blame the farther left from pushing the party too far from center and so forth.

I really think that the tent is getting way too big on both sides to be able to hold together. There is no way that too parties can contain every political view.

[Cat Atomic]

18. Oh I agree that the moderates would blame everyone else again.

I mean, they're still doing it here.

But I do think a Bush win would keep more liberal-minded people in the Democratic Party for the short term. Just my opnion, of course.

[JackDragna]

17. We should be splintered already.

Running a pro-war, pro-Patriot act candidate is simply not acceptable as a long-term solution, particularly when he begs his opponents to play nice. If Kerry loses, I'll need a new message board, because my patience for the Democratic party as a national entity will be over.