BREAKING: IVAN has gone to Category 3

[nostamj]

on MSNBC just now. early prediction has path similar to Charley. should be near Puerto Rico by Friday...

(looks like my parents may be hunkered down in VA for a bit longer...)

[althecat]

1. tracking map & commentary

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/051733W5.gif

000
WTNT44 KNHC 051700
TCDAT4
HURRICANE IVAN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 2004
...CORRECT TO SHOW INLAND AT 120HR ONLY...
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO REPORT THE RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OF IVAN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SPECIAL DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND DATA T-NUMBERS GAVE AN INTENSITY OF
ABOUT 100 KT. OBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SUGGEST THAT EVEN THIS
ESTIMATE MAY BE CONSERVATIVE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
LIKELY BUT WE SHOW THE INTENSITY LEVELLING OFF WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO TO REFLECT UNCERTAINTIES.

NO CHANGES TO THE TRACK OR WIND RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.

FORECASTER PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/1700Z 10.1N 46.6W 100 KT
12HR VT 06/0000Z 10.6N 48.7W 110 KT
24HR VT 06/1200Z 11.5N 52.3W 115 KT
36HR VT 07/0000Z 12.4N 55.9W 120 KT
48HR VT 07/1200Z 13.3N 59.4W 120 KT
72HR VT 08/1200Z 15.0N 65.5W 120 KT
96HR VT 09/1200Z 17.5N 71.0W 120 KT
120HR VT 10/1200Z 20.5N 75.0W 70 KT...INLAND

[MercutioATC]

4. Florida is just NOT the place to be this year, is it?

WOW! Talk about a run of lousy luck...

[aquart]

7. What could Florida have done to upset God?

Think, think.

Oh, yeah: And take heed.

[nostamj]

11. i don't blame FL, THEY voted for Gore

I blame BUSHIES for subverting the vote. what we need are twin Cat5 storms over the Crawford ranch and Kennebunkport compound...

[in_cog_ni_to]

17. It's the Governor's fault.

If he wouldn't have stolen the 2000 election, G-d wouldn't have unleashed his wrath. It's all because of the BFEE. Blame in on Jeb. :evilgrin:

Floridians, I feel so bad for you! :hug:

[soothsayer]

2. oh, man! Poor FL gonna' get it AGAIN???

Jeez, I hope not.

[Renew Deal]

5. It's payback for 2000;

[Mojambo]

9. It does appear that fate is tapping on Florida's shoulder

"Don't even think of pulling it again..."

[skooooo]

19. Nah, it's the Elian Gonzales effect...

Castro is orchestrating this whole thing as payback for having to take the brat back to Cuba.

[soothsayer]

15. Ah, yes, god is mad about the voter fraud

Let that be a warning to the GOP!

[I_Hug_Trees]

21. Do you really think that?

I think hurricanes are random acts of nature. But you could be right. Karma is a bitch sometimes.

[Renew Deal]

3. Damn that's fast. It was just a TS yesterday.

[nostamj]

8. "rapid intensification" according to the report...

no plywood coming down any time soon in southern FL...

[aquart]

12. So, they keeping the voting machines safe?

[da_chimperor]

13. ANOTHER one?

From what I've been reading in the news, 2 hurricanes hitting Florida in one season is really rare, so what are they going to make of number 3? Maybe this will be a wake-up call to people that think global warming is just a pack of lies made up by liberals, scientists, librarians, and other undesirables.

[dwckabal]

6. Man, I moved to CA just in time!

n/t

[Mojambo]

10. You've just doomed yourself to an earthquake...

[Zynx]

14. This is really bad.

Their intensity forcast didn't even think this was possible in the short term. From 11:00 AM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904I+GIF/051733I.gif

It is now well through their upper range. If this gets organized and stays on course, it will miss the main parts of Cuba and Hispaniola, and rip right towards the only part of Florida that hasn't been hit already by Charley and/or Frances.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

16. Most of the time the hurricanes just go away or head to Texas....

I'm still a Floridian who has been here long enough to see 99% of the hurricanes just die down or head in a different direction.

A LOT more people die up North from winter-related things. You couldn't PAY me to go back up North.

[arcos]

18. it is expected to become a category 5 hurricane within the next 12-24 hrs

n/t

[skooooo]

20. Looking at earlier maps..

...looks like the storm could wipe out Cuba.

[nostamj]

23. Category 5 ?!?!

wow. haven't seen much coverage. the cable whores are busy pointing at the serious but not CATASTROPHIC (thankfully) damage from Frances....

if this bastard hits... will FL ever be the same? will it be evacuated for the duration of hurricane season in the future? \

will it even stop at three?

[Junkdrawer]

24. Down to Category 2....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/062040.shtml?

Intensity forecasting is the weakest part of hurricane forecasting.

Given the current track, most experts think that the mountains of Hispaniola will keep Ivan to a minor US event.

[DS1]

22. There's no such thing as Global Warming.

There's no such thing as Global Warming.
There's no such thing as Global Warming.

Is it gone yet?