How can I explain to a discouraged Dem that *'s bounce is really a thud,

[goodboy]

and he should not be worried about it? My dad freaks out when he sees the news reporting only the time/newsweek polls showing chimpy up 11pts. I keep trying to tell him that these two polls don't jive with the dozens of other polls out there. What else can I say to ease his mind?


goodboy

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Send him to...

The Rasmussen Poll site. Rasmussen is a repuke, albeit one that has a seemingly pathological need to redeem himself by telling the truth.

[ayeshahaqqiqa]

2. Point out

that the bandaid trashing of veterans has really gotten vets mad. That the former National Guard head in WV says we don't need Bush for four more years. Remind him of the obvious bias of the news media.

[goodboy]

3. If I mention media bias, he'll say, "the media's already elected Bush...

Kerry's toast...

[TomClash]

14. Be Patient

Tell him to be patient. Election day is November 2, not September 6. The campaign starts in earnest . . . NOW.

Wait for the Kitty Kelley, Sy Hersh and Bob Graham books to come out and then see who's on the defensive.

Think there are a few people in the Pentagon and CIA on our side? There are more than a few. There are a lot. Many hate this crowd.

Reinforcements have arrived. Help is on the way.

Carville, Sasso. A new attitude starts today. No more Mr. Nice Guy, high road bullshit. The gloves are off.

"They put one of ours in the hospital, we put one of theirs in the morgue." - David Mamet, The Untouchables

[goodboy]

16. sweet. eom

[goodboy]

4. kick...please help...eom

[sid dicious]

5. What the fuck? Let him be discouraged as long as he's still voting!

If he is so susecptible to the regular media...don't let him here talk radio. He'll hang himself!

Have some fortitude, for fucks sake!

these things ebb and flow...and this is no different.
once Kerry starts aattacking the chimpconomy and healthcare and stops the vietman war crud...then we'll see things change back.

[goodboy]

7. I believe we need to reassure each other, and keep each other strong...

in order to win. My dad draws comparison's to Dukakis, frustrated that Kerry's team isn't fighing dirty enough. Personally I think Kerry oughta stay in the gutter until Nov.

[Tsiyu]

6. One word: Debates

Debates.

[goodboy]

8. Good point...have you heard that chimpy is already hinting at

cancelling one of the debates...

Will chimpy get the questions ahead of time?

[rocktivity]

9. Tell him the 11-point bounce was a fluke

Time and Newsweek "rushed to judgement" by running their polls BEFORE the GOP convention was completely over in order to meet their print deadlines. Subsequent polls have Bush either tied or holding a maxium 3-point lead. He should also check at Kerry's speeches at www.johnkerry.com if he doesn't think he's been fighting back.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=750751&mesg_id=750751&page=">More

:headbang:
rocknation

[goodboy]

11. I did that, and then dad asks me why they're only reporting on the 11pt

polls...what do I tell him then?

[rocktivity]

20. Because they make him look good

And that's what the mainstream media has been mandated to do. It's in their best interests because they've been petitioning Bush to pass legislation that would give them more control over the airwaves. They don't want Kerry in office because he might make them divest or break up.

You can keep track of the latest polls at www.pollingreport.com.

:headbang:
rocknation

[nostamj]

10. simple! show him how they skewed the polls.....

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/040904/nysa058_1.html

By their own addmission Republicans and Independents were over represented:

Newsweek Poll: Post-Republican Convention, Princeton Survey Research
Associates International

Final Topline Results
(9/4/04)

N = 1,008 Registered Voters, 18 and over
Margin of error: plus or minus 4
Interviewing dates: September 2-3, 2004

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR TOTAL ADULTS:
1,188 Total adults (plus or minus 3)

SAMPLE SIZE/MARGIN OF ERROR FOR REGISTERED VOTERS SUBGROUPS:
1,008 Registered voters (plus or minus 4)

505 Thursday interviews (plus or minus 5)
503 Friday interviews (plus or minus 5)

374 Republicans (plus or minus 6)
303 Democrats (plus or minus 6)
300 Independents (plus or minus 6)

That makes the breakdown 38% Republicans, 31% Democrats and 31% Independents.

In reality there are 72 million registered Democrats, 55 million registered Republicans and 42 million are Independents. That breaks down to 43% Democrats, 32% Republicans and 25% Independents.

[goodboy]

12. This is really helpful. I'm calling him now...thank you! eom

[Feanorcurufinwe]

13. Don't ease his mind, use this poll to convince him to volunteer, etc.

Explain that yes, Bush might win, so we need to do absolutely everything possible to elect Kerry instead.

[goodboy]

15. It's funny you mention that...he's going down to Kerry HQ tomorrow

and turn his anger into action.

thanks..

jason

[salin]

17. Send him to www.talkingpointsmemo.com

It appears to be a very brief anamoly - and that insider polls from both camps show about a 4 pt lead for bush - which is mirrored in the Rasmussen poll. The overall bounce seems to be about the same size of bounce that Kerry enjoyed. I believe the overall sense is that the race is still as close as ever.

[sid dicious]

23. The 4pt lead is still signifigant - Kerry had a bounce from his convention

Screw all the talking points...we've got to get it done because we've got to get the chimp out! If you're friend doesn't feel fired up then what chance do we have with the joe sick packs out there?

[sid dicious]

18. Honestly folks...how many of you last year were for Kerry?

Why do we need to look at polls or speaches or debates. Personally, I think that the chimp will do better at the debates than we would be led to beleive.

What is Kerry going to have over him? The war won't work for him, since he voted for the war and reiterated that he would still have gone regadless of WNDs.

Bush will probably have some mixed up numbers to make the economy look better than it is. He'll probably start taking oil from Iraq to keep gas prices low. And don't forget he could always catch Bin Laden at the last minute to get a bump.

We have to vote for Kerry because he's what we have left. If we want four more years of the chimp, then get discouraged and cry cause the Kerry isn't perfect. I wanted Dean, because he was a real democrat of my youth. Kucinich was perfect, but America ain't ready yet for that much enlightenment.

If you wanna be like the racist rubes who think that B*sh isn't conservitave enough and aren't gonna vote for him fine. Or if you need someone to stroke your hair and feed you a bottle, then fine...you can sit back on cry on November 4th. Otherwise, suck it up and ralize that b*sh sucks and almost anybody beside likea Zell miller or Pat Buchannon (although he would be better on the war) is better than chimpy!

c'mon we've gotta fight and be confident!! :(

[in_cog_ni_to]

19. Tell him about Judy Woodruff on CNN Friday!

There was a poll showing Kerry and the chimp are tied and CNN chose to show the 11 point lead BULLSHIT poll instead. She was caught on camera (not knowing it) questioning the TIME poll. They knew it was total CRAP. :grr:

[goodboy]

21. That really frosts my ass...and I can't explain the level of utter

contempt I have for Woody-woodpecker...

[Catherine Vincent]

22. I had to do the same thing yesterday.

There was this guy that kept saying that a lot of people back * and that he is leading in the polls. I told him a lot of people back Kerry too and that Kerry is leading in other polls. I said always remember Gore received more votes than Bush in 2000 and there is no way that a large percentage of those Gore voters will vote for Dumbass, especially since he royally fucked up on this war.

[BrotherBuzz]

24. Run the Dead Cat Bounce phenomenon past him

Wall Street expression describing the phenomenon of a stock or share bottoming out to near zero and then recovering with a sharp buying spree from bargain hunters: the notion being that even a dead cat will bounce if dropped from a high-enough point.

Bush* has used up all nine cat lives!